week thirteen - what\'s next
Post on 05-Dec-2014
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What’s Next?
Wayne MacPhail
Week Thirteen
The future is here.It’s just unevenly
distributed.
-William Gibson
We drive into the futureusing only our
rearview mirror.
- Marshall McLuhan
The best way to predict the future,
is to invent it.
- Alan Kay
1955This ball is really
important!
1955It says, be sure to plug in
the keyboard and monitor!WTF?
Oh, nice use of an anacronistic acronym for a cheap laugh
Gladys, you skank.
1969
34,000 bytes of memory43,000 Hz$46 million
4,000,000,000 G of memory2.600,000,000 GHz
<$1000
1970
Flammable Pants
1977
1980 Not a hairpiece
2008
2006 2004
2002 2000
1998 1996
1994
1992
2010 =
2012
FourYears
From Now
1980-2008
4 million times more memory
2008 0.0034
0.39
2006 0.0064
0
12.5
25.0
37.5
50.0
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2008
1986 48
1990 13.6
1994 1.3
1998 0.066
2002 0.039
2006 0.0064
Cost per megabyte of storage by year
Watch the trends
Expect disruptive innovation
Imagine zero
Disruptive Innovation
Disruptive Innovations
Digital vs Film PhotographyDesktop vs. Press PublishingLEDs vs. Light Bulbs
Twitter vs Newsrooms
Batteries Due
Analytical Engine 1837
Charles Babbage
Memex, 1945
Vannevar Bush
Home Computer, 1954
Rand Corporation
Knowledge Navigator, 1987
Apple Computer
Apple Lisa, 1984
Apple Computer
Macintosh1984
The Trend to Zero
Time
Cost
StorageBandwidthMonitorsMemory
ProcessorsNewspaper Readership
How to Think About the Future
PastPresentFuture
Always concurrent
What’s next?
First,what used to be next.
We’ve passed that now.
Multi-modal inputwith context awareness
Geo-locationGeo-locationGeo-location
OLED
100,000:1 ratio.002 inches thick
Flaps in the breeze
Will show up inphoto IDs
and cellphones
Wireless, location-aware silicon is
the new wood pulp.
And the news?
Granularity melts.Newsrooms unify.
Curation rules.
Newspaper thinking dies.
Online Journalism Blog
And the you?
You get to make this all true.
Thanks for your kind attention.
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