webinar : oil and gas methane emissions
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©OECD/IEA2017 ©OECD/IEA2017
Oilandgasmethaneemissionsandtheenvironmentalcasefornaturalgas
TimGouldandChristopheMcGlade
©OECD/IEA2017
WEO-2017fuelfocusonnaturalgas
n FollowsonfromfocusonrenewablesintheWEO-2016Ø ThefullfocuswillbelaunchedaspartoftheWEOon14November
n Coversallaspectsoftheoutlookfornaturalgas:Ø Projectionsfordemand&supplyto2040,costs&inter-fuelcompetitionØ HowtheriseofLNGisreshapinginternationalgastrade,investment&gassecurityØ Gasinachangingenergyworld&theenergytransition
n Clearthatfutureroleofgascloselylinkedtoitsabilitytohelpaddressenvironmentalproblems
n Broadconsensusovercombustionemissionsofgas:significantuncertaintyovermethaneemissionsfromoilandgasoperations
n Aimofthemethaneemissionsanalysistoinvestigatethesourcesofthisuncertaintyandexplorewhatactionscanbetaken
©OECD/IEA2017
Combustionemissionsfromgasarelow
Shareofgasintotalenergy-relatedemissionsofairpollutantsandCO2,2015
Comparedwithothersources,naturalgasmakesonlyaminorcontributiontowardstoday’semissions
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Carbondioxide
Nitrogenoxides
Sulfurdioxide
Particulatematter
Gas Coal Oil Bioenergy Non-combustion
31Mt
79Mt
108Mt
32Gt
©OECD/IEA2017
Theenergysectorisresponsibleforaquarterofannualmethaneemissions
Sourcesofmethaneemissions,2012
Attributingmethaneemissionstospecificsourcesisdifficult,buthumanactivityislikelytoberesponsibleforthemajorityofthe570Mtemissionsin2012
3%
Wetlands30%
9%Agriculture
24%
Waste11%
BiomassburningBiofuels
Fossilfuels20%
Anthropogenicsources Naturalsources
Source:Saunois etal.(2016)
3%3%
Other
©OECD/IEA2017
EmissionscomefromawidevarietyofsourcesalongtheoilandgasvaluechainsRegionalandsectoralbreakdownofmethanefromoilandgasoperations,2015
Naturalgasoperationsaccountforaround55%ofourestimated76Mtmethaneemissionsin2015,withEurasiaandtheMiddleEastthelargestemittingregions
Eurasia25%
MiddleEast22%
NorthAmerica17%Africa
13%CentralandSouth
America11%
AsiaPacific9%
Europe3%
Byregion
Gasupstream37%
Gasdownstream19%
Flaring4%
Oildownstream0.3%
Oilupstream41%
Bysector
©OECD/IEA2017
Thelifecycleemissionsofgasarelowerthancoal
Greenhouse-gasemissionintensityofnaturalgascomparedwithcoal
TheglobalaverageemissionintensityofgasislowenoughforgastoresultinfewerGHGemissionsthancoalregardlessofthetimeframeconsidered
2%
4%
6%
8%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120CH4 conversiontoCO2
Coalbetterthangas
Gasbetterthancoalforelectricityonly
Gasbetterthancoal
GWP100fromIPCC(2014)
GWP20fromIPCC(2014)
Methane
leakagerate
Averageglobalgasemissionintensity
©OECD/IEA2017
ThreequartersofcurrentoilandgasmethaneemissionsaretechnicallyavoidableGlobalmarginalabatementcostcurveforoilandgasmethaneemissions,2015
Itistechnicallypossibletoreducethe76Mtcurrentoilandgasemissionsby58Mt;half(38Mt)canbeavoidedusingapproacheswithpositivenetpresentvalues
NorthAmericaEuropeMiddleEastAsiaPacificLatinAmericaAfricaEurasia
-10
-5
0
5
10
60Mt
0 10 20 30 40 50
USD/MBtu
©OECD/IEA2017
JustimplementingmeasureswithnonetcostwouldyieldhugebenefitsfortheclimateMethaneemissionsintheNewPoliciesScenariowithandwithoutabatementmeasures
Implementingmeasureswithpositivenetpresentvaluesreducesmethaneemissionstoaround50Mtin2040,55%lowerthantheywouldhavebeenotherwise
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Milliontonnes
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
GasOil
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Emissionswithnoabatement Reductionsduetoabatementmeasures
©OECD/IEA2017
Conclusions
n Methaneemissionsalongthevaluechainthreatensomeoftheemissionsadvantagesnaturalgasholdsovertheotherfossilfuels
n GasgeneratesfarfewerGHGemissionsthancoalwhengeneratingheatorelectricityregardlessofthetimeframeconsidered
n Over75%ofthecurrent76Mtemissionscanbetechnicallyavoided;around40-50%canbemitigatedatnonetcost
n Thesemeasureswouldhavethesameimpactonclimatechangeasimmediatelyshuttingallexistingcoal-firedpowerplantsinChina
n Achievingthesereductionsrequiresastep-changeinambition;fewcountrieshavespecificmitigationframeworksinplace
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