warn-on-forecast parting shots david j. stensrud noaa/national severe storms laboratory
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Warn-on-ForecastParting Shots
David J. StensrudNOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
SWOT Analysis
• Strengths• Weaknesses• Opportunities• Threats
• Just my perspective – Biased, imperfect
Strengths
Strengths
• Good results!
Strengths
• Good results!Largely independent of DA used,as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships
cimms
Strengths
• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships• Engaged with social sciences from outset
Weaknesses
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00
$500,000.00
$1,000,000.00
$1,500,000.00
$2,000,000.00
$2,500,000.00
$3,000,000.00
Warn-on-Forecast Funding
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging• Developing people as well as technology
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells
Weaknesses
• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells• Social science connection
Opportunities
Opportunities
• Additional funding
Opportunities
• Additional funding• Seek our own funding• GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL
Opportunities
• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Radar Vision• NWS Roadmap• Radar Functional Requirements for 2030
Opportunities
• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Expanded partnerships• NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC• SSD Chiefs• ROC, WDTB, JCSDA• Within NSSL and other partner groups
cimms
Threats
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves
Threats
• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves
Parting Shots
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
• New funding possible if we work together
Parting Shots
• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn
• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!
• New funding possible if we work together• Biggest threat is ourselves
The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it.
Clay Shirky, Professor of New MediaNew York UniversityIn “The key to successful tech management”
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