vr and ar: 2016, 2020, and 2025

VR and AR: 2016, 2020, 2025

Jesse Schell

VRX 2015

CrystalBallSociety.com

Market

Prediction 1: Starting in 2016, VR headsets will be in

the consumer market

permanently

?=1M

300K x 10 = 3M

10% of 40M = 4M

Prediction 2: In 2016, eight million

gamer headsets will

be sold.

Prediction 3: In general, there will be four

mobile headsets for each gamer headset.

Prediction 4: Headset sales will double each

year until saturation is reached.

Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gamer VR 8M 16M 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M

Mobile VR 32M 64M 128M 256M 512M 1B 2B

Note: By 2020, there will

be about one billion PC/Console gamers,

and about four billion smartphone users.

Prediction 5: Fifty different headsets will

be featured at CES 2017.

Prediction 6: Through 2018, overheating

VR phones will still be a problem.

Freezing them will be common.

Prediction 7: As soon as Sony sells 10M

headsets, Microsoft will announce one for

XBoxOne (probably E3 2018).

Games

Prediction 8: An asymmetric party game

will be a top ten VR game by end of 2017.

Prediction 9:

Madden 2018

will have a VR

edition.

Prediction 10: By the

end of 2018, a major

new VR-centric

game genre will

appear.

Fears

Prediction 11: By the end of 2017, the media will

blame at least one mass shooting on a VR game.

Prediction 12: By

end of 2017, news

stories about “VR

Addiction” will be

frequent.

Prediction 13:

By the end of

2018, there

will be at

least three

movies

playing on

fears of VR.

Filmmaking

Prediction 14:

Documentaries

will be the first

VR films to win

major awards.

Prediction 15: By 2020, VR porn

will be a $1B industry worldwide.

Prediction 16:

By 2020, there

will be at least

ten Virtual

Reality

Reality Shows.

Prediction 17:

The Divine

Comedy will

provide a

model for

successful

VR

storytelling.

Prediction 18:

By end of 2018,

will have a VR

channel.

Prediction 19: For feature films to

work in VR, they will need to be

social. We’ll figure this out by 2025.

Social

Prediction 20: By 2025, the majority of VR

revenue will be from social experiences.

Prediction 21:

By 2020, one of

the top ten VR

games will be

a dance game.

Prediction 22: By 2025, VR/AR

Boardgames will be a $100M business.

Prediction 23: By end of 2020, at least one

VR MMO will have > 1M subscribers.

Prediction 24: By the end of 2018, there

will be a leading VR social platform,

and it won’t be the old guard.

Prediction 25: By 2018, VR Emotes will be

very popular, and have a stupid name.

LBE

Prediction 26:

In 2017, every

US State Fair

will have a VR

Attraction.

Give them

something

they can’t get

at home.

Rule #1:

Prediction 27: By 2020 There will be

at least 20 VR coasters worldwide.

Prediction 28: By 2025 Bowling

with AR Glasses will be a thing.

Touch

Prediction 29:

By 2020,

trackable

props for VR

and AR will

be common.

Prediction 30:

Also in 2020,

trackable

snacks.

Prediction 31: In 2025, Robots will touch you in VR

and you’ll

like it.

Augmented Reality

Prediction 32: by 2025, 80% of VR/AR

devices will be one or the other, not both.

Prediction 33:

AR

experiences

synced with

TV will be a

thing.

Prediction 34: Augmented reality

lectures popular by 2025

Prediction 35: By 2025, chasing phantoms

in your house will be only for children.

Technology

Prediction 36: By 2018, gamers will

wear narrow glasses or get contacts.

Prediction 37: By 2020, really hardcore

gamers will have prescription lenses.

Pred. 38: By 2020, Eye tracking

VR headsets will be available.

Pred. 39: By 2020, Foveated Rendering

will exist. By 2025, it will be useful.

Pred. 40: By 2025, There will be no

more corded VR systems.

Thanks!Slides: jesseschell.comTwitter: @jesseschell

Email: jesse@schellgames.com