volcanological supersite in iceland : importance of the futurevolc project at european and global...

Volcanological supersite in Iceland : Importance of the FUTUREVOLC

project at European and global level

Sue Loughlin, BGS and FUTUREVOLC partners

EU/Supersite community• European Supersites• GEO/GEOSS• EU FP7 projects (e.g. MIA-VITA, VUELCO…)• EU FP7 / GMES / Copernicus (e.g. EVOSS)• EPOS• CEOS• WEZARD (meteorology community)• Other Supersites (e.g. Hawaii)

Cost of aviation disruption 2010

UK loss £466 millionTotal global GDP impact $5 billion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Thurs15 April

Fri 16April

Sat 17April

Sun 18April

Mon 19April

Tue 20April

Wed 21April

% decline from same day previous week

Source : EurocontrolSource : Eurocontrol

100,000 flights cancelled7 million passengers affected

Europe, $2,632

MEAF, $591

Americas, $957

Asia, $517Million $US

Source : Oxford Economics

How will FUTUREVOLC help?

• Accessible infrastructure• Monitoring and analysis – multidisciplinary,

timely, uncertainties• Research into operations (source

parameters, validation)• Communication : within the project

in Iceland trans-boundary

• Key end-users are within the project

Monitoring and analysis

Effective monitoring and analysis• Ground, Air, Space-based• Real-time and near real-time multi-parametric data acquisition

and analysis• Better understanding of physical processes• Operational scientific decision-making

Sigrun Hreinsdottir

MODIS

1. Monitoring capacity

Multiparametric monitoringData managementWeb system

Improved monitoringTimely recognition of

precursorsShort-term forecasting

2: The First Model Run

Source parameters for historical eruptions

Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson

3. Alerts and Early Warning

4: Model source parameters

Mass eruption rateGrain size distributionAtmospheric interactionGas composition

Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson

5: Validation / data assimilation

Validation of EO dataAlgorithm developmentImproved measurements and samplingData assimilation for models

7 May 2010 (Simon Carn, OMI)

Research into operations

Building on what works…

Aviation colour codes VONA

Near real-time dataWebsite reports

… and others

Icelandic community

National and international media

IAVWICAO

Aviation colour codes / VONA

Research into operationsFUTUREVOLC advisory group?Access to data and analysisChallenges of real-time source parametersData assimilationFUTUREVOLC team comprises operational ‘End-users’

End-users forensic analysis (communication) 2010, 2011

• Civil Protection• Aviation sector• Airlines• Met Services (including VAACs)• Scientists • Geological Surveys• Government departments

Communication

Communication

• Questionnaire to key end-users• Forensic analysis• Best practice in trans-border communication

Planning and preparation

• Iceland, Europe, the rest of the world have different needs, handled at national level

• Airborne hazards• Volcanic ash (and other aerosols such as sulphates,

PM2.5, PM10), gas• Risks to various sectors• Impacts to aviation, human and animal health,

agriculture, infrastructure, ecosystems etc• Planning and preparation under uncertainty• Communication and early warning critical

UK operations and preparedness

Higher Education Institutes

UK and Iceland Communication – first 24 hrs

FAAM ARSF

Atmospheric operations

The scientific expertise

The decision-makers

Higher Education Institutes

Courtesy: NCAS

From http://www.geostudy.zoomshare.com

Stromboli online

Eruption scenariosIceland can produce eruptions of different:

scalesstyles

eruptive productsdurations

Hazards include:Volcanic ash

Other aerosol (e.g. Sulphate)Volcanic gases

Glacier floods (jokulhlaups)Lahars

Lava flowsPyroclastic density currents

Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruptuion

Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS, 108 (38), 15710-15715

Laki-type eruption

National contingency planning

Aviation risk reduction (reduced losses)

• Risk factors:Hazard likelihoodMonitoring capacity (real-time and near real-

time) ‘First model run’ source term parameters ‘Source term’ model parametersEarly warning (effective system)Communication (research-IMO-VAAC-Aviation)

Volcano Observatory Best Practice workshops

• 80+ volcano observatories2011 Short term forecasting2013 Communication

Global Volcano Model

• A growing international network that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. It will provide systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk on global, regional and local scales.It will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences.

FUTUREVOLC in Montserrat

NERC : Strengthening Resilience in Volcanic Areas (STREVA)

Summary• Research into operations• Trans-border hazards and risks• Risk reduction • Increased resilience• Best practice in data accessibility/multiparametric

monitoring• Best practice in communication• Responding to stakeholder needs• A unique opportunity…

FUTUREVOLC

Thor Thordarson