vikings & mongols
Post on 15-Jul-2015
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Canada Woodlands Forum 2015 Moncton NB
• First Viking Age: 795-1066 Raiders and Traders
• The New Viking Age: Raiders
& Traders
• The Mongols of Wall Street
• Burdens of History
• Implications
Coin of Erik Skotkonung, Sweden 9th c.
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• Predatory gangs out for plunder, ransom payments • Preyed on each other when they
could • “Mafia model” – confederations
to minimize vendettas and conflict: bad for business
• Godfathers set selves up as Kings
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• Vinland sagas
– Larch from Canada found in Greenland Viking age sites
– “Karlsefni ordered timber to be felled and cut into lengths for a cargo for the ship, and it was left out on a rock to season. They made use of all the natural resources of the country….”
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• Victims built forts, formed proto-nation states
• Economic growth improved profits of trade
• Their own kings imposed order
• Scandinavians settled in former victim’s lands…
• Norse homelands needed bulk goods requiring peaceful trade
• Christianity?
Bayeux Tapestry
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• Scandinavian products in demand
• Silk Road imports
• Light manufacturing
• Internal trade
• Symbols of far-flung trade…
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http://www.bitsofnews.com/images/graphics/viking_voyages_map_large.png
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Miklagard –Byzantium Lanse au Meadows, Nfld
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• Illegal loggers
• Corrupt governments
• Enablers through the supply chain
• Timber Mafias of Asia, Russia Far East, elsewhere
• May not wither away as First Viking Age did…
• Oversupply affects Our business
Sumatra
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• IKEA – more than 300 stores
– 217 MM catalogs printed (100,000 t paper/yr)
– Leading sources: China, Poland, Italy
– North America???
• Many others, typically by internal growth
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• $4 billion + sales; 576 stores
• “Multi-channel operating model”
• “Strong brands; proprietary design”
• “World class supply chain”
• 61% sourced in Asia, Europe
• 46% of revenue direct to customer; most e-commerce; e-commerce fastest growing revenue stream
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Zillow says Our House is up 30%! Let’s buy another one!
Counterparty surveillance will take care of all the risks...
Don’t interfere with “innovation” and “free
markets”
• Radical Rebuild of the Distribution System; Fragmentation of markets
• Global Logistics Revolution – China
– Fed-X, UPS virtually overnite
– Wider Panama Canal
– The Post Panamax Ship
– North America Loses ability to compete on price
• Fast Growing Tropical plantations 3/24/2015 CWF 2015 Vikings and Mongols 17
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HAVE TRIED –
• Consolidation
• Become their distributors
• Sell ‘em raw materials
• At primary end - do more “Value added”
• Move Production Offshore
• Supply Chain monitoring/cleanup
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• Mongols of the stock market rode off to greener pastures
• Fortune 500 Companies were like the Medieval monarchs but they didn’t adapt -- – Sold off the lands
– Left the region entirely
• Replaced by: – Private equity
– Offshore Capital
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• Family Ownership if not management
• Manage Debt
• Growth for its own sake? Why?
• Face the facts of Mature/Declining Markets
• No one silver bullet
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• Northeast US/E. Canada -- Culture Hearths of lumber/Paper industries
• Former models of vertical integration obsolete
• Locations based on log driving & Waterpower
• Cost position prohibitive for volume grades
• Will biomass based energy save us? Not Likely.
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• Historic outlets to the World
• Now, an advantage for our competitors
• Thoreau, 1846: “There stands the city of Bangor…at the head of navigation for vessels of the largest class…like a star at the edge of night...sending its vessels to Spain, to England, and to the West Indies for its groceries…”
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• WE MUST --- • Make some BIG changes • Modern wood measurement
system • Face Risk: people who took no
risks are no longer with us! • Grow quality wood in our own
forests • Clean up supply chains • Culture of Continuous
reinvention/improvement
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Thanks for your kind attention
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lcirland@gmail.com
• Else Roesdahl, The Vikings. Penguin 1998, pbk.
• Robert Ferguson, The Vikings, a History. New York: Viking. 2009.
• Henry Goddard Leach, A pageant of Old Scandinavia, Princeton Univ Press. 1946.
• B. Almgren, et al. The Viking. Crescent Books, no place of pub cited. Copyright 1975.
• James Graham-Campbell.et al. Cultural atlas of the Viking World. New York: Facts on File. 1994.
• Last 2 are lavishly illustrated. The sagas are available in many forms including paperback editions.
• See further reading in Wikipedia entry under Ghengis Khan.
• The Travels of Marco Polo – many editions.
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