value of uwb - dotecon ltd value of uwb presentation to iqpc ultrawideband europe conference...
Post on 17-Oct-2020
4 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Value of UWB
Presentation to IQPC Ultrawideband Europe Conference
Presented by Mathew Stalker, DotEconOn behalf of Mason Communications and DotEcon Ltd
11 March 2005
-2-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Format
1. Introduction and Overview
2. Our Approach
3. Estimates of Net Private Benefits
4. Estimates of External Costs
5. UK Results and Conclusions
6. The European Impact
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Introduction to Study
-4-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
The UK Study
• Commissioned by Ofcom
• Cost-benefit analysis of UWB for PAN applications
– Evaluate benefits from using UWB in PAN environments:
» Better quality relative to alternatives
» Lower cost relative to alternatives
– Evaluate costs from using UWB:
» Interference with other services
– Identify net impact on society under different regulatory scenarios
– Consider the impact of alternative UWB techniques
Provide input into Ofcom’s policy decision on UWB
Enable Ofcom to influence European policy debate
-5-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
• Wireless technology capable of transferring large amounts ofdata wirelessly over short distances (up to 10m)
• Particularly Suitable for wireless personal area networking(PAN)
• Feasible substitute for wire in low and high data rateapplications
• Rival technologies include Bluetooth and WiFi
What is UWB in the PAN Environment?1. INTRODUCTION
-6-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
UWB in the PAN Environment
Extent/Range of Communications
PANLANMANWAN
2G MacroCellular
DTV (Terrestrial)
3G MacroCellular
DTV (Satellite)
3G MicroCellular
Dat
a R
ate/
Cap
acit
y C
apab
ility
10kbps
100kbps
1Mbps
10Mbps
100Mbps
1Gbps
2.5GGPRS
3G PicoCellular
3GHSDPA
802.11bWLAN
802.11aWLAN
IEEE 802.15.1(a)Bluetooth
IEEE 802.15.3WPAN
IEEE 802.15.3aUWB
InductiveCoupling
RFID
IEEE 802.15.4WPAN
BFWALMDS
BFWAMVDS
InfraredDevices
DAB (Terrestrial)
4G?
Intended UWBMarket
Possible UWB Market
• Majority of usage will beindoors, in the office orhome
• Data rates of greater than110Mbps
• Potential advantages ofUWB:
– Much faster datarates
– Battery life
– Price
1. INTRODUCTION
-7-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Five Regulatory Scenarios
• 3.1 to 10.6 GHz bandwidth
• -41.3 dBm/MHz emissions between 3 and 10 GHz
• Devices limited to 3 to 5 GHz
• (a) Draft ETSI/CEPT mask (-65 dBm/MHz at 2 GHz)
FCC Mask
UWB limited toLower Band
UWB limited toUpper Band
• Devices limited to 6 to 10 GHz
• (b) Revised ETSI/CEPT mask (-85 dBm/MHz at 2 GHz)
ETSI Mask
1. INTRODUCTION
-8-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Industry consultation
• Bilateral discussions with companies:
– Manufacturers of UWB chipsets
– Manufacturers of devices that might utilise UWB
– Providers of other services potentially affected
• Two workshops in conjunction with Ofcom,
– July 2004 to set out the methodology of the study
– October 2004 to discus the findings
1. INTRODUCTION
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Our approach
-10-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Approach to Estimating Welfare Impact of UWB2. APPROACH
Impact on social welfare =
Net private benefitsfrom using UWB
instead ofalternative
technologies
Total interferencecosts from use of
UWB
• Likely to be positive or negative?
• How large?
• How sensitive to alternative regulatory approaches?
• How sensitive to model parameters and assumptions?
-11-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Approach to Estimating Welfare Impact of UWB
External
costs
• Positive or negative?
• How large?
• Impact of regulation?
• Sensitivity toassumptions?
Value to the
United Kingdom
Net private
benefits
Quality
Cost
Take-up
UWBrelative toalternativetechnologiese.g. WiFi,Bluetooth
Interferencewith otherservices
UMTS
Satellite
Fixed links
WirelessBroadband
PMSE
GPS
Aeronautical
Radioastronomy
Military
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Estimates of Net Private Benefits
-13-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Methodology for Estimating Benefits I
Step I
Identify PANapplications
for UWB
Step II
Identifyalternative
technologiesand compare
to UWB
Step III
Estimatewillingnessto pay for
UWB
Step IV
Estimaterelativecosts of
UWB andalternative
technologies
Step VI
Estimatebenefits
from usingUWB
Step V
Project take-up for
applicationswith UWB
3. BENEFITS
-14-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
UWB versus alternative technologies
Video/audiodownloads
Users benefit from higher data rate Alternatives offer greater range and wall penetration
Users benefit from higher data rate and extended battery life
Users benefit from higher data rate
UW
B P
AN
Ap
plic
atio
ns
Audio/VideoStreaming
ExternalData Storage
HandheldDevices
PC Video
AudioDevices
PCPeripherals
PCNetworking
Homogenous
Users benefitonly though lowercost
Differentiated
UWB offersadditionalbenefitscompared toalternative
Currently insufficient data rate to compete with existingdevices
Alternatives offer greater range and wall penetration
Currently insufficient data rate to compete with existingdevices
Alternatives offer greater range and wall penetration
Insufficient data rate for satisfactory service
Many technologies provide service of equal quality
Devices available of similar or higher quality
3. BENEFITS
-15-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Measuring benefits for different applications3. BENEFITS
Effect of Cost Savings and Quality Differences
We also considered the case where quality increases but cost alsorises relative to alternatives
D
c0
cUWB
q0 q1
A B
D’
C
price(cost)
units sold
A. Cost saving on units thatwould be sold underboth technologies
B. Effect of increased take-up owing to lower pricesand increasedwillingness to pay
C. Effect of increasedquality on willingness topay on units that wouldbe sold under bothtechnologies
-16-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Willingness to pay and cost
• Hedonic prices used to calculateadditional willingness to pay for UWBrelative to alternative technologies
• Results for all applications extrapolatedfrom survey of handheld devices andnetwork cards
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
West Technology ABI Research Low case (higher costs*)
High case (lower costs*) Central case* Bluetooth
3. BENEFITS
• Cost of UWB relative to alternativetechnologies estimated byextrapolating industry forecasts overthe forecast period
-17-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Take up
• Forecasts for take-up of and usage of all applicationsdeveloped using industry data
UWB PAN application take-up - central case
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Pen
etra
tio
n (
pro
po
rtio
n o
f U
K p
op
ula
tio
n)
PCs and keyboards / mice PCs and speakers PCs and microphones
PCs and wireless monitor (with compression) PCs and other PCs / servers / access points (LANs) PCs and printers
PCs and PDAs Mobile and PCs, other mobiles or PDAs PCs and other PCs (wireless fire sharing)
PCs and digital cameras / camcorders PCs / DVD players and digital video cameras PCs and external storage devices
PCs (or digital video players) and wirless projector Pcs and scanners PCs and MP3 players
HiFis / CD players and speakers DVD players and TVs / projectors PCs and TVs / projectors (for home theatre)
Digital set top boxes and TVs Games console and TVs / projectors DVD players / recorders and PCs
PCs and HiFis
3. BENEFITS
-18-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Private Benefits
• Potential net private benefits from UWBvery large
• Benefits sensitive to take-upassumptions, but still significant evenunder low case scenario
• Large-scale benefits only from 2011,once UWB reaches mass market
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Net
pri
vate
ben
efit
s fr
om
UW
B p
er a
nn
um
, £m
n
FCC or ETSI Masks Lower band Upper band
NPB fromUWB underdifferentregulatoryscenarios,per annum(£mn)
• Benefits greatest under either FCC orETSI masks (assumes that initial chipsetsmeet both standards)
• Lower band restriction may reducefuture benefits
• Upper band restriction significantlydelays and reduces benefits
3. BENEFITS
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Estimates of External Costs
-20-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Methodology for Calculating External Costs
Which existing systems are operating
in the spectrum occupied by
UWB in the UK?
List of 10 systems identified
Will co-existence with UWB lead to
costs to the operators of
those systems?
Exclude from CBA
Include in CBA
No
Yes
Interference Calculations
using Monte Carlo models
based on given number of UWB
applications
Cost Calculation
STEP 1:Identify Existing Users
STEP 2:Assess likely
impact of UWB
STEP 4:Cost Calculation
STEP 3:Interference Modelling
Which existing systems are operating
in the spectrum occupied by
UWB in the UK?
List of 10 systems identified
Will co-existence with UWB lead to
costs to the operators of
those systems?
Exclude from CBA
Include in CBA
No
Yes
Interference Calculations
using Monte Carlo models
based on given number of UWB
applications
Cost Calculation
STEP 1:Identify Existing Users
STEP 2:Assess likely
impact of UWB
STEP 4:Cost Calculation
STEP 3:Interference Modelling
4. COSTS
-21-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Two engineering models
• UMTS
– Modified version of the Monte Carlo model developed by Mason forearlier RA work
– Simulate lost of quality of service in the presence of UWB
– Costs estimated for restoring the quality of service
• FS, FSS and FWA
– Bespoke Monte Carlo model
– Estimate the noise impact on ‘Probability of Error’ at the affected link
• Both models draw extensively on ITU-R studies
4. COSTS
-22-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Costs per UK UMTS Operator
£0
£10,000
£20,000
£30,000
£40,000
£50,000
£60,000
£70,000
£80,000
£90,000
£100,000Y
earl
y C
ost
s o
f U
WB
to
UM
TS
(£0
00)
-51dBm £86,482 £73,803 £83,399 £62,280 £58,985 £49,508 £47,754 £48,265 £48,777 £49,289 £52,771 £50,823
-65dBm £3,720 £2,909 £2,935 £2,274 £2,131 £1,824 £1,754 £1,768 £1,782 £1,796 £1,892 £1,839
-85dBm £72 £67 £85 £56 £54 £44 £43 £43 £44 £44 £47 £45
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
4. COSTS
www.mason.biz www.dotecon.com
Results and Conclusions
-24-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Net Value of UWB to the UK under differentregulatory approaches
5. Results
Lower band
ETSI (-85dBm/MHz)
ETSI (-65dBm/MHz)
Upper band
FCC Mask
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020N
PV
to
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
, £m
n,
dis
cou
nte
d a
t 3.
5% f
rom
200
4
-25-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Conclusions
• Draft ETSI mask is superior to FCC mask
– Net private benefits are identical (based on our understanding thatinitial chipsets meet both standards)
– External costs (interference) much lower under ETSI mask
• Possible scope for tightening the roll off of the draft ETSI mask to alevel of –85 dBm/MHz at 2.1GHz
– External costs on UMTS providers are minimal under this scenario
– Benefits unaffected provided that initial chipsets are compatible
• Both upper and lower bands should be made available for UWB
– A lower band restriction may constrain future quality improvements forno clear benefits
– An upper band restriction would delay launch of UWB by five years ormore and reduce quality
5. Results�
-26-
© Copyright 2004 - DotEcon Ltd and Mason Group Ltd
Implications for Europe
• Indicative estimates of the value of UWB can be obtaining using simple benchmarks– Benefit benchmarked using population
– Cost benchmarked using land area
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Austria
Belgium
Denmar
k
Finland
Fran
ce
German
y
Greec
eIta
ly
Luxe
mbo
urg
Nethe
rland
s
Norway
Portu
gal
Spain
Swed
en
Switz
erland
Unite
d King
dom
NP
V o
f b
en
chm
ark
ed
valu
e o
f U
WB
fo
r 2
00
4-2
02
0, €
mn
top related