validating assumptions: from unknown to known

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"Validating Assumptions: From Unknown to Known"

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Presented by:

Ade Shokoya AgileTV

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Ade Shokoya AgileTV

Ade Shokoya is a Certified ScrumMaster and Scrum Professional, business analyst, and agile consultant who specializes in multi-million dollar agile transition projects. With more than eleven years of experience and a client list that includes internationally recognized companies including News Corps, Tesco, Metro, LexisNexis, and Capita, Ade Shokoya adopts a K.I.S.S (Keep It Simple & Straightforward) approach to agile transition. Ade is the author of Waterfall to Agile: A Practical Guide to Agile Transition and the founder of AgileTV.com where he regularly interviews world-leading agile experts and thought leaders.

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A Presentation by Ade Shokoya

•  A father and his two sons, a mother and her two daughters, a thief and a policeman are on one side of a river.

•  There’s a boat by the river bank, but it can only take two people at a time.

•  Only the father, the mother and the policeman know how to operate the boat.

•  The father can not be with any of the daughters without their mother around.

•  The mother can not be with any of the sons without their father around.

•  The thief can not be with anyone else without the policeman around.

How can you get everyone across to the other side of the river?

"There are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know

we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns - there are things we do not know we

don’t know.“ ~ United States Secretary of Defense, Donald

Rumsfeld

"We do know of certain knowledge that he [Osama Bin Laden] is either in Afghanistan, or in some

other country, or dead."

“Unknowns lead to uncertainty... Uncertainty leads to anxiety... Anxiety leads to cognitive biases!”

(Scrum) Master Yoda

…a deviation of judgment from accuracy or logic - can lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, or illogical interpretation

Copyright Ade Shokoya 2012-20113

Original Plan

The more precise you are, the less accurate you’ll be

Estimates made during product definition stage typically out by

a factor of x16

Gorilla basketball video here…

Cost: $125,000,000

tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions.

Sequence: 2,4,6 3 attempts to discover the underlying rule of this 3 number sequence

Sequence Fits Rule? 2,4,6

Inspect & Adapt – because things rarely go as planned!

Best Plan

…knowledge comes from experience and making decisions based on what is known

Waterfall •  Define: Up front •  Deliver: In single batch

Incremental •  Build a bit at a time. •  Calls for fully formed idea upfront

Iterative Build a rough version, validate it, then slowly build up quality

Source: Jeff Patton - http://www.agileproductdesign.com/blog/dont_know_what_i_want.html

Deliver a product inline with the following requirements: 1.  A gasoline-powered engine 2.  Top speed of 130mph 3.  Go from 0-60mph in four seconds 4.  A steering wheel 5.  CD Player/Digital Radio 6.  Drop Top Roof 7.  Heated Seats 8.  Four wheels 9.  Rubber tires mounted to each wheel 10.  A steel body in racing red colour Build Cost = $40,000

Purchase Price: Cost $1,000 each

First team to deliver what I want wins!

"The wisest man [person] is [the one] who knows that [they] know nothing“ ~ Socrates

Validated Learning

The minimum viable product is that product which has just those features (and no more) that allows you to ship a product that resonates with early adopters; some of whom will pay you money or give you feedback.” 

!  Spotify !  Zappos !  Facebook !  Dropbox

Copyright Ade Shokoya 2012-20113