using gis in foreclosure analysis: a look at forsyth county, nc

Using GIS in Foreclosure Analysis: A Look at Forsyth County, NC

NC Department of Revenue2011 Advanced SeminarGreensboro, NCSeptember 14, 2011

Presented by:

Jason Clodfelter, CMS, GISPCarlo Frate, CMS, GISP

Forsyth County Tax AdministrationGIS/Mapping Division

Discussion Items

Foreclosure terminology

Foreclosure process

Tax office analysis

Changes to office procedures

Triad sets record for foreclosure filings in 2010

By: Richard Craver, Journal Reporter

Published: January 7, 2011

North Carolina and most of the Triad set a record for foreclosure filings in 2010, a state agency reported Thursday.

There were 67,854 foreclosures in North Carolina in 2010, an increase of 7 percent over 2009. Forsyth County had a record 2,396 foreclosure filings last year, up 6 percent, according to the N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts…

Of the 14 counties in the Triad and Northwest North Carolina, just two — Alleghany and Rockingham — did not set a record in 2010.

Although Forsyth has seen a 29 percent increase in foreclosure filings since 2006, some counties in Northwest N.C. have had filings that at least doubled. For example, filings have risen in Watauga County from 107 in 2006 to 356 in 2010, along with going from 75 in 2006 to 160 in 2010 in Ashe County…

"North Carolina will have more than a 30 percent increase in completed foreclosures in 2010 compared with 2009," Blomquist said. "I don't believe foreclosures are necessarily going to get a lot worse in 2011, but they're not likely to get much better."

Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion

Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion

Foreclosure – is a legal process Multiple steps Multiple variables Variety of outcomes

Notice of Hearing on Foreclosure of Deed of Trust Civil papers filed with Clerk of Court that begin the foreclosure

process Delivered or posted by the Sheriff's department Often referred to as Foreclosure Filing, Foreclosure Start,

Foreclosure Notice or Sheriff’s Notice (terms used by the media)

Notice of Foreclosure Legal document filed after completion of a foreclosure Mandated by NC GS 45-38 Filed with the Register of Deeds Sometimes referred to as a Completed Foreclosure

Foreclosure TerminologySource of Mass Confusion

Foreclosure Process

Banks/CreditUnions

Savings & Loans

MortgageCompanies

GovernmentEntities

Home Owners Associations

Owner Financing

Past Due PaymentsAre Paid Up

Deed In LieuOf Foreclosure

Distressed Sale

Short Sale

Foreclosure Occurs

File Notice of Hearing on Foreclosure of Deed of Trust

ForeclosureRelatedActivities

Bankruptcy

OK, So Why Do We Care?Reality

The Tax office is being asked, “What are you doing about all of these foreclosures?”

In order to be able to answer this, we must: Know where the foreclosures are Be able to track those properties Follow subsequent sales of those properties Determine what, if any, affect the foreclosures have on

the market area (neighborhoods) IAAO Standard on Verification and Adjustment of Sales:

Sales in which a financial institution is the seller typically should be considered as potentially valid for model calibration and ratio studies if they comprise more than 20% of sales in a specific market area.

Housing department - participation in the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

Federal grant money used to help purchase and rehab foreclosed properties

NSP requires that the grant money be focused on census tracts most affected by foreclosures

Can use foreclosure data to target population segments to educate about home ownership and the services offered by Housing

Others

Public Safety/Crime Prevention Code Enforcement

OK, So Why Do We Care?Reality

Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts, Forsyth County Housing Department, Forsyth County Register of Deeds, Forsyth County Tax Administration

Forsyth County Foreclosure Data: 2007-2010

1,222

1,9812,221 2,252

2,396

844992

819

851

1,085

1,374 1,456

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010

Notices of Hearing on Foreclosure Notices of Foreclosure (GS45-38)

Parcels Affected

Completed Foreclosures as Percentage of Foreclosure Starts: 2007-2010

42.60%44.66%

36.37%

51.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010

Select Neighborhoods SummarySouthwestern Forsyth County

All sales and foreclosure numbers are for 2007 - 2010

NeighborhoodNumber of

Parcels

Median Assessed

Value

Number of Foreclosures

Total SalesForeclosure Percentage

Qualified Sale Percentage

Median Year Built

Sequoia Place 515 154,700$ 11 136 8.1% 61.8% 1988

Springfield Farms 329 159,700$ 6 116 5.2% 60.3% 1996

Rollingreen Village 535 157,100$ 3 116 2.6% 42.2% 1971

Number of Qualified Sales

2022 18

2424

121618

23

11

4

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010

Sequoia Place Springfield Farms Rollingreen Village

Southwestern Residential Neighborhood Comparison: 2007- 2010

1.3%

0.3%

-2%

-7.3%

-1%

-4%

9%

-50% -52%

-8.0%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

Sequoia Place SpringfieldFarms

RollingreenVillage

% C

hg

Med

SF

& I

mp

Pri

ce

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

% C

hg

Qu

alif

ied

Sal

es

% Change inMedian SquareFoot Price

% Change inMedian ImprovedSales Price

% Change inQualified Sales

1988 1996 1971

Median Year Built

Select Neighborhoods SummarySoutheastern Forsyth County

All sales and foreclosure numbers are for 2007 - 2010

NeighborhoodNumber of

Parcels

Median Assessed

Value

Number of Foreclosures

Total SalesForeclosure Percentage

Qualified Sale Percentage

Median Year Built

Canterbury 419 114,900$ 18 132 13.6% 47.0% 1973

Pecan Ridge 256 161,350$ 13 89 14.6% 57.3% 2002

Weatherstone 228 143,650$ 1 318 0.3% 53.1% 2007

Number of Qualified Sales

1515

29

3811

28

4

3022

37

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010

Canterbury Pecan Ridge Weatherstone

Southeastern Residential Neighborhood Comparison:2007-2010

14.5%

-7.4%-6%

-3%

2.2%

27%

-90%-86%

-63%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Canterbury Pecan Ridge Weatherstone

% C

hg

Med

SF

& I

mp

Pri

ce

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

% C

hg

Qu

alif

ied

Sal

es

% Change inMedian SquareFoot Price

% Change inMedian ImprovedSales Price

% Change inQualified Sales

1973 2002 2007

Median Year Built

Select Neighborhoods SummaryEastern Forsyth County

All sales and foreclosure numbers are for 2007 - 2010

NeighborhoodNumber of

Parcels

Median Assessed

Value

Number of Foreclosures

Total SalesForeclosure Percentage

Qualified Sale Percentage

Median Year Built

Sedge Meadow 169 153,400$ 5 127 3.9% 52.8% 2002

Robbins Brook 157 181,300$ 3 199 1.5% 43.2% 2006

Sedgemont Village 122 165,550$ 0 97 0.0% 61.9% 2006

Number of Qualified Sales

11

1816

22

9

10

30

37

18

13

7

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010

Sedge Meadow Robbins Brook Sedgemont Village

Eastern Residential Neighborhood Comparison:2007-2010

-12.7%

-25.0%

-10%

-7%

-10.6%

11%

-39%

-19%

-41%

-30.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

SedgeMeadow

Robbins Brook SedgemontVillage

% C

hg

Med

SF

& I

mp

Pri

ce

-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

% C

hg

Qu

alif

ied

Sal

es

% Change inMedian SquareFoot Price

% Change inMedian ImprovedSales Price

% Change inQualified Sales

2002 2006 2006

Median Year Built

Summary

General trends in Forsyth County, 2007-2010 Analysis so far has shown:

Foreclosure-related sales have sharply increased. Qualified sales have sharply decreased. Few countywide trends Other variables influence changes in home prices

General economic conditions Existing housing stock / Supply & Demand

Neighborhood conditions determine extent of effects on home prices by foreclosures

Age of homes Location Price point

Future considerations: Expand study period into past and future Examine subsequent sales of foreclosed properties. Consider neighborhood-by-neighborhood analysis to determine effect

of foreclosures on property values Identify variables to control for (effect of foreclosures vs. effect of

economic downturn) Change workflow processes for classifying and tracking foreclosure-

related sales

Changes to Office Procedures

Additional Steps to Capture & Track Foreclosures and Foreclosure Related Sales

Changes to Office Procedures

Receive list of Notices of Foreclosure on Deed of Trust (by address) served by Sheriff’s department – add a note to the record receiving notice

Receive list of Notices of Foreclosure, as identified by the Housing Department, on a monthly basis

Match that info up with data in our Tax system to identify records foreclosed on

Code those records to identify them as “Foreclosures”

Changes to Office Procedures

Identify the records with subsequent sales (from financial institutions) after foreclosure and code them as such

These new notes and codes allow us to better track, query and run ratios on sales relating to foreclosures

Effect of Foreclosure Related Sales

Qualified & Post

Foreclosure Bank Sales

Qualified Sales Only

Post Foreclosure Bank Sales

Only

Number of Sales

10,528 9,452 1,076

Median Assessment Ratio

1.05 1.03 1.72

COD 29% 22% 43%

For Calendar Years 2009, 2010 and 2011 (through August 26)

Contact Information

Jason Clodfelter 336-703-2376 Email: clodfekj@forsyth.cc

Carlo Frate 336-703-2370 Email: fratedc@forsyth.cc

Forsyth County Tax Administration201 N Chestnut StWinston-Salem, NC 27101

Addendum

Forsyth County Housing Department Using GIS to Identify Home Foreclosures

A Positive Side-Effect of Foreclosures

A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

The NSP is intended to reduce blight, rehabilitate abandoned and foreclosed properties, provide affordable housing for buyers and renters and stimulate the local real estate market.

Funds are allocated by a formula based on the number of foreclosures and vacancies in the 20% of US neighborhoods (Census Tracts) with the highest rates of homes financed by a subprime mortgage, are delinquent or are in foreclosure.

These funds are highly targeted to communities with the most severe neighborhood problems associated with the foreclosure crisis.

Source: US Department of Housing & Urban Development, Community Planning & Development Office

A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

NSP funds may be used for activities such as:

Establishing financing mechanisms for purchase and redevelopment of foreclosed homes and residential properties

Purchasing and rehabilitating homes and residential properties abandoned or foreclosed

Establishing land banks for foreclosed homes Demolish blighted structures Redevelop demolished or vacant properties

Source: US Department of Housing & Urban Development, Community Planning & Development Office

Requirements of program

30% of funds must be used to assist families at or below 80% of Median Household Income

Recipients getting assistance for rental units must be at or below 50% of Median Household Income

Other first-time home buyers can be at 120% of Median Household Income and still receive assistance

A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)

Administered locally by the Forsyth County Housing Department

Creating database of foreclosed properties using Notices of Foreclosure

Doing simple geo-coding using addresses and street centerlines to locate foreclosures

Collaboration with the Tax office in terms of data sharing

Assistance Provided to Date

Received $3.625 million through the NSP1 program

Distributed $3,436,343.44 in the form of down payment assistance, rehab assistance and the purchase of foreclosed properties in Forsyth County

This includes assistance to 44 first-time home buyers

Approximately 160 new affordable housing units have been made available

A Positive Side-Effect of ForeclosureNeighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP)