u.s. non-gmo soybeans update: production, growing...

U.S. Non-GMO Soybeans Update: Production, Growing Conditions and 2020 Planting Intentions

Nancy Kavazanjian, Wisconsin Soybean Farmer

RIVER

RAIL

HIGHWAYS

NANCY KAVAZANJIANDirector, United Soybean BoardWisconsin Soybean Farmer

About My Farm

• Farm with husband on fourth-generation (150+ years old) family farm in Beaver Dam, Wisconsin

• Grow GM & non-GM soybeans, corn, and winter wheat on 2,100 acres (approx. 850 hectares)

– 30+ years of no-till

• Husband, Charles; two children –Patrick and Danielle

Sustainability on My Farm

No-till for 30+ years | Cover crops | Crop rotation

Soil sampling & conservation | Pollinator habitat

Wind & solar energy | Precision agriculture technology

My 2020 Planting Intentions

Which crops grow best in which fields

Which crops have the best return on investment

Which crops are in the highest demand by potential buyers

Which crops are best adapted to local weather

Which crops match the farmer’s equipment and labor availability

About My State

• Average soybean yield is 48 bushels per acre (approx. 1.7 m³ per 0.405 hectares)

• Wisconsin harvested 2.18 million acres (approx. 0.88 million hectares) of soybeans, which valued $0.91 billion

• This includes GMO and non-GMO soybeans

Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Wisconsin State Overview

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U.S. Non-GMO Soybeans: Production, End Use Purpose, Exports And

2020 Planting Intentions

U.S. Non-GMO & Food-Grade Soybean Acreage 2015-2018

Acres (millions) 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Soybean Acres 83.2 83.7 90.2 83.7

Non-GMO Soybean Acres 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.4

Total Food-grade Soybean Acres 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.7

Food-grade as % of All Soybeans 4.2% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1%

Food-grade as % of Non-GMO Soybeans 69.8% 66.7% 70.2% 68.9%

Source: Strategic Marketing Research & Planning, 2019 Non-GMO Food-Grade Soybeans Quantification Study

1 ACRE ≈ 0.405 HECTARES

% Of Contracted Food-Grade Acres Used For Indicated Purpose from 2016-2019

34%41% 39% 34%

22%17% 19%

16%

22%10% 10%

9%

17%

14% 14%

12%

4%

9% 9%

15%

8% 8%14%

2016 2017 2018 2019

Don't recall

Other uses

Natto

Miso

Soymilk

Tofu

Source: Strategic Marketing Research & Planning, 2019 Non-GMO Food-Grade Soybeans Quantification Study

Food-Grade Soybeans Yields 2015-2018 And Average Forecasted For 2019/2020

50.0

55.6

51.5

53.6

50.6

54.4

47.048.049.050.051.052.053.054.055.056.057.0

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020*

Bu

sh

els

/A

cre

Source: Marketing Research & Planning, 2019 Non-GMO Food-Grade Soybeans Quantification Study

How U.S. Exporters Acquire Soybeans From Farmers In 2019

44%

12%

44%

Contract soybean acres only

Spot purchase soybeans only

Both contract soybean acres

and spot-purchase soybeans

11

Source: Strategic Marketing Research & Planning, 2019 Non-GMO Food-Grade Soybeans Quantification Study

U.S. Non-GMO & Food-Grade Soybean Acreage Forecast For 2019 & 2020

Acres (millions) 2019* 2020*

Total Soybean Acres 76.7 79.5

Non-GMO Soybean Acres 4.6 4.8

Contracted Non-GMO Acres 3.5 3.6

Contracted Non-GMO % of all Non-GMO 75.6% 75.7%

Total Food-grade Soybean Acres 3.2 3.4

Contracted Food-grade Acres 2.6 2.8

Contracted Food-grade as % of all Food-grade 81.3% 81.1%

Contracted Food-grade as % of all Contracted Non-GMO 73.9% 76.3%

Food-grade as % of All Soybeans 4.1% 4.3%

Food-grade as % of Non-GMO Soybeans 68.7% 71.3%

Source: Marketing Research & Planning, 2019 Non-GMO Food-Grade Soybeans Quantification Study

1 A

CRE ≈

0.4

05 H

ECTARES

U.S. Non-GMO And Food Soybeans Crop Progress And Conditions

2019 Food-Grade Soybeans Crop Progress & Conditions

• Across the country production is down due to inclement weather and unplanted acreage

• Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan & Wisconsin had delayed planting due to a wet spring

• Exporters & farmers from the region are reportingo 10-15% decrease would not be unexpected

• Beans planted before the spring have shown very good quality and very high yields

• Beans planted later in the season have shown lower yields, however quality (protein, size, etc.) have been very good

A Food-grade soybean field in Henry County, Ohio (Aug. 2019)Photo Curtesy of Flavorful Insight

Food-grade soybean field in Barron County, Wisconsin (Aug. 2019)Photo Curtesy of Flavorful Insight

A nearly ready to harvest Food-grade soybean field in Becker County Minnesota (Sept. 2019)Photo Curtesy of Flavorful Insight

A Food-grade soybean field Adams County, Iowa (Sept. 2019)Photo Curtesy of Ray Gasser

Abnormal Weather Conditions

• The Red River Valley (MN/ND)

– Quality of the crop is very good, even with late season wet weather

– Mid-October blizzard also has created some issues with harvest

• Blizzard is not expected to affect quality in anyway

Photos Curtesy of Xtreme Weather on Facebook

U.S. Soybean Crop Quality Conditions

U.S soy crop quality impacts prices paid by

soybean importers throughout the world

U.S. soybean farmers have made a

While the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC) does not guarantee the forecasts or statements of USSEC Staff or Contractors, we have taken care in

selecting them to represent our organization. We believe they are knowledgeable and their presentations and opinions will provide listeners with detailed

information and valuable insights into the U.S. Soy and U.S. Ag Industry. We welcome further questions and always encourage listeners to seek a wide

array of opinions before making any financial decisions based on the information presented. Accordingly, USSEC will not accept any liability stemming from

the information contained in this presentation.

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