urbanization in africa: research confronts reality hugh wenban-smith...

Urbanization in Africa:Research confronts Reality

Hugh Wenban-Smith(wenban@globalnet.co.uk)

My Project Motivation

• Urbanisation is proceeding rapidly in Tanzania• It does not seem to be acting as the ‘engine of

growth’ it is supposed to be (cf. Asia)• Why not? Is this down to Economic

Fundamentals or Institutions?• IGC project focuses mainly on economic

fundamentals (but institutions may also matter)

Urbanisation: General approach

• Not enough to look just at growth of towns and cities• Urban areas are embedded in the wider economy

and form an urban system• Need to look at dynamics – e.g. effect of population

growth, conditions in rural areas, rural-urban migration and relations between large and small towns

• Regional differences may help to identify causes

Recap of Phase 1

• Key findings:– Mainland urban popn up 18 times to 12.7m;– Mainland rural popn up 3 times to 31m - i.e. Big

increase in pressure on land and other natural resources despite rapid urbanisation

• Analytical tools:– Propensity for rural out-migration (Prom)– Propensity for regional in-migration (Prim)– Propensity for urban in-migration (Puim)

• Big differences between regions: Why?

Regional propensities 1978-2012

Aims in Phase 2

• To relate indicators found in Phase 1 to developments in Tanzanian economy and economic policies

• To provide a narrative analysis of urbanisation since Independence– A. At the national level– B. At the regional level

• Hope understanding of this narrative will assist in development of policies for urbanisation to maximise its contribution to growth and welfare

Tanzania: Urban growth 1957-2012

A crude specification

Regression results: Prom

Period LandDens (b)

Rainfall(c)

LnUrbPop(d)

DistDar(e)

Mining(dummy)

R2

1978-88 1.32*(0.68)

16.9*(5.73)

-3.36(2.39)

-8.45*(3.85)

1.78(3.88)

0.44

1988-2002

1.59*(0.77)

-3.49(7.15)

-4.29(3.71)

-20.6*(6.37)

-0.97(6.87)

0.62

2002-2012

-2.65(2.39)

2.98(7.52)

2.47(3.77)

-19.5*(7.24)

6.13(7.28)

0.65

Is there a better approach?

• Yes: better would be a general equilibrium model which could take fuller account of rural/urban interactions (e.g. Adam et al, 2014)

• Also attractive might be dynamic modelling• Beyond resources of this project (also would

need to overcome data limitations)• A challenge for the next generation of urban

researchers in Tanzania?

What have we learned?

• Census-based database on migration and urbanisation established – help yourself!

• Some evidence for ‘Rural Push’ in 1978-88 and 1988-2002; pressure of population on land and other resources a cause for concern

• A large urban population favours regional in-migration• Greater distance from Dar discourages out-migration• But methods not robust enough to be very confident• More case studies needed to help identify drivers of

migration and urbanisation in Tanzania – Regional Annexes provide a starting point

Wider lessons

• Census data useful for economic as well as demographic research

• Regional studies as valuable as cross-country studies• More NEG insights needed• Rapid population growth is a problem• Role of government (incl. local govt) matters• Strengthening role of Africa’s urban areas as engines of

growth remains a major challenge • Research can make a contribution but focus needs

increasingly to be on appropriate urban policies and the mobilisation of resources in support of those policies.

Ed Glaeser to the Rescue?

• “Cities, Agglomeration and Spatial equilibrium” (2008)

• Urban economists’ bible (takes us under the bonnet)

• But … how applicable to developing countries?• Equilibrium?

People and Firms

• People choose location to equalise utility. Plausible but in developing countries …– i. Severe frictions; and – ii. Rapid population growth

• Firms locate to trade off cost of inputs against market access. OK for modern firms but …– i. What about subsistence farmers?– ii. … and the informal sector?

Builders and Governments

• Builders build houses where they are needed up to point where MC = MR. But …– i. Formal housing market poorly developed; – ii. What about informal settlements?

• Governments: No role!– Where does infrastructure come from?

• So, considerable extension and adaptation needed to achieve a reliable theoretical guide to urbanisation in Africa.

• That’s the challenge for us all …