understanding ‘global’ consumer behavior- new rules for success

New Rules for Success

Understanding ‘Global’ Consumer Behavior

� Ipsos is 3rd largest research company in the world

� Vantis is a division specializing in connecting research results to financial impact across a variety of industry verticals–Mostly innovation focused–25+ year history of model development

About Us

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Topics

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Stating the obvious

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….And the (very) slightly less obvious

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Abroad Home

Going into 2011, among Western CEOs…

� More than 80% felt they could grow abroad

� Fewer than 50% felt they could grow at home

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What is changing in research?

Means of reaching consumers is different… and changing fast

‘90s ‘00s Today

+

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‘00s methods are combined with today’s

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Social media is re-shaping consumer access

Population is ranked 3rd in the world.

1. China 1,336,450,000 6. Brazil 192,651,000

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2. India 1,178,436,000 7. Pakistan 169,010,500

3. Facebook 845,000,000 8. Bangladesh 162,221,000

4. United States 308,898,000 9. Nigeria 154,729,000

5. Indonesia 231,369,500 10. Russia 141,927,297

� Compared with 12 months ago, how much more social media driven data are you using? –A lot more–A little bit more–About the same–Less –We don’t analyze social media data

Polling Question

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� The way they answer questions is different

� Fortunately in a somewhat systematic way…– By education– By cultural disposition– By how and in what ‘medium’ questions are asked

And, once you reach consumers…

Example of Raw Survey Score Interpretation From Around the World

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10% 12% 11% 8%

Definitely Would …Probably Would …

Probably Would Not …Definitely Would Not …

Might or Might Not …

... Buy

���� Year End Penetration

Modality and Venue matter. Example:

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Online Panel

Intercept Pre-recruit

IDI

Pre-recruitGroup

POP

Middle of a Survey

Beginning of a Survey

� In the past year, have you had to think through how to reconcile data from different sources (different countries, different data collection methods)?–Yes–No

Polling Question

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Statistics are getting harder to apply to consumer data as an ‘arbiter of truth’

� Do not call regulation and time-shifting

�Increasing reliance on social gathering places

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� Over-abundance of on-line survey ‘pop ups’

social gathering places vs. controlled sampling

Nuance in data Interpretation �

The dynamics of adoption have changed

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It is a period where the evolution of social interaction is rapidly outpacing the evolution of

social science…moreso than historically

8%

8%

12%

16% 21% 18% 34% 26% 28% 21% 19% 33%

Pu

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t… which may explain this…

Top Two Box %

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13% 15% 13%

26%

17%20%

17%13%

21%

3%

6%5%

9%8%

4%6%

NokiaBooklet

3G

AmazonKindle

2

AppleTV

HPMini

AppleiPhone

3Gs

PalmPre

LGChocolate

AppleiPad

DellInspiron

11z

Pu

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ase

In

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Definitely Would Buy

Probably Would Buy

Failed Succeeded

mar·ket·ing re·search: noun \mär-kə-tiŋ rē-sərch\The process of gathering, analyzing and interpreting information about a market, about a product or service to be offered for sale in that market, and about the past, present and potential customers for the product or service

So what does all this mean?

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…but, now, in a smaller world with more access challenges, rapidly proliferating data sources, and disparate data biases

…’Truth’ is getting harder to come by via data analysis – and marketing research data are hard to understand

Bottom Line….

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The New Rules – 7 of Them

(maybe not all 7 for today… the sky is not falling….but rules for ‘soon’…)but rules for ‘soon’…)

1) Developing Market Best Practices Are Global Best Practice

vs

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MORE FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH

MORE FOUNDATIONAL RESEARCH

GREATER GLOBAL CONNECTION

GREATER GLOBAL CONNECTION

RELATIVELY MORE IN PERSON METHODOLOGIES AND DOING

‘MORE WITH LESS’

RELATIVELY MORE IN PERSON METHODOLOGIES AND DOING

‘MORE WITH LESS’

2) The >20 Minute Online Survey Is Untenable, Globally

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3) Journalism Skills Must Be Embraced By Market Intelligence

1) Opportunism: ‘scooping’ the competition (and getting

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competition (and getting engaged eyeballs!!)

2) The principles of the discipline

Getting the Scoop

� Because there is significantly more social interaction, there are more useful scoops (consumer insights) to be found at any moment…

� But it requires more might than is typically exerted in marketing intel:

Journalism Textbook:

Getting scoops requires a great deal of effort,

and a very large support team. Many papers

station journalists all over the world in the

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station journalists all over the world in the

hopes of getting scoops on unexpected major

stories, and they supplement these journalists

with stringers who sell content to the highest

bidder. Having foreign correspondents in place

is a crucial part of running a successful major

paper, and many news outlets dedicate a large

chunk of their budget to maintaining such

correspondents, along with their contacts.

1. Journalism's First Obligation Is To The Truth

2. Its First Loyalty Is To Citizens

3. Its Essence Is A Discipline Of Verification

4. Its Practitioners Must Maintain An Independence From Those They Cover5. It Must Serve As An Independent Monitor Of Power 6. It Must Provide A Forum For Public Criticism And Compromise 7. It Must Strive To Make The Significant Interesting And Relevant 8. It Must Keep The News Comprehensive And Proportional9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

Principles of Journalism

23Pew Research Center Project for Excellence in Journalism

9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

1. Journalism's First Obligation Is To The Truth

2. Its First Loyalty Is To Citizens

3. Its Essence Is A Discipline Of Verification

4. Its Practitioners Must Maintain An Independence From Those They Cover5. It Must Serve As An Independent Monitor Of Power 6. It Must Provide A Forum For Public Criticism And Compromise 7. It Must Strive To Make The Significant Interesting And Relevant 8. It Must Keep The News Comprehensive And Proportional9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

Principles of Journalism

24Pew Research Center Project for Excellence in Journalism

9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

1. Journalism's First Obligation Is To The Truth

2. Its First Loyalty Is To Citizens

3. Its Essence Is A Discipline Of Verification

4. Its Practitioners Must Maintain An Independence From Those They Cover5. It Must Serve As An Independent Monitor Of Power 6. It Must Provide A Forum For Public Criticism And Compromise 7. It Must Strive To Make The Significant Interesting And Relevant 8. It Must Keep The News Comprehensive And Proportional9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

Principles of Journalism

25Pew Research Center Project for Excellence in Journalism

9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

1. Journalism's First Obligation Is To The Truth

2. Its First Loyalty Is To Citizens

3. Its Essence Is A Discipline Of Verification

4. Its Practitioners Must Maintain An Independence From Those They Cover5. It Must Serve As An Independent Monitor Of Power 6. It Must Provide A Forum For Public Criticism And Compromise 7. It Must Strive To Make The Significant Interesting And Relevant 8. It Must Keep The News Comprehensive And Proportional9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

Principles of Journalism

26Pew Research Center Project for Excellence in Journalism

9. Its Practitioners Must Be Allowed To Exercise Their Personal Conscience

4) A Key Research Function Is Making ‘Decoder Rings’

DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

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DISPARATE DATA SOURCES

DISPARATE BIASES

Because all data are biased, a precondition to uncovering

insights is fixing biases.

4) A Key Research Function Is Making ‘Decoder Rings’

BENCHMARKSVALIDATION

MODELED (vs Stated) DATAPARALLEL TESTSDELPHI ANALYSIS

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5) We Have to Convey Insight in Universally Understood Terms

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Example Archetypes

Top performer archetypes

� Winner � Under-priced � Good concept

Middle performer

� Breakthrough� Me too

� Over-priced� Average

� Niche/targeted� Atypical

� Potential future hit � Skeptical

����

?

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performer archetypes

� Me too� For Want � Value Branding

� Average � Too premium� Commodity

� Atypical � Value resistant� Unconvincing

� Skeptical� Unbelievable

Caught in middle

Poorperformer archetypes

� Dog����

?

6) We Have to Report Conclusions, Not Analysis and ‘Proof’

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Type A

Demographics

Male 49 60 122

Female 51 40 78

18-24 21 25 119

25-34 30 30 100

35-44 20 21 105

45-54 17 21 124

55+ 12 3 25

Mean Age 36.7 35 95

Male 18 - 34 22 35 159

Male 35+ 27 25 93

Female 18 - 34 30 19 63

Female 35+ 21 21 100

Caucasian 63 46 73

Hispanic 14 23 164

African-American 14 15 107

Asian 6 10 167

Other 3 6 200

Married 51 44 86

Single/Wid/Div 49 56 114

Age 5 and under 25 28 112

Age 6 to 12 21 28 133

Age 13-17 14 28 200

HH Size (mean) 2.7 3.2 119

Total household

income Yearly mean ($000) 54.3 48.5 89

Total

(161)

Target

(48)Index

Gender (%)

Age (%)

Gender / Age

Quads (%)

Ethnicity (%)

Marital

Status (%)

Children at home

(%)

$100M+ Opportunity

7) Looks Matter

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Implications for Research

A little more like journalism…

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Deliberate Rushed

Authoritative Titillating

Scientific Intuitive

A positioning direction…

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Scientific Intuitive

Left Brain Right Brain

Thank YouThank You

Jason Brownjason.brown@ipsos.com

212� 584�9248