underlying assets and reference indices
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Underlying Assets and Reference
Indices
QF 301
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Contents
Section 1: Equities Panaroma Ideas about stock prices Stock Exchanges Quotes and Orders Indices
Section 2: Currencies
Section 3: Fixed Income Rates Interest Rate Fundamentals In Practice
Modelling Interest Rates
Section 4: Others
Section 5: Epilogue
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To understand derivatives, which are officially first and foremostfinancial instruments to modify risk profiles of certain underlying
assets or reference rates, we need to have an idea what thoseassets or reference rates are and the respective marketmechanisms and factors affecting them
This lecture shows you the tip of the iceberg
It is hoped that the exposure will illuminate to you thesignificance of economic/financial/business news in the papers,
on the internet and in magazines
It is also hoped that the noise that is one component ofderivatives pricing and hedging models compresses into
several equations an huge area that is highly complex andinteresting
Learning Objectives
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Section 1: Equities
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Panorama
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The Concept of Equity
By issuing shares, companies can raise capital topursue business opportunities and meet its operationalneeds
Owning shares is like owning a piece of the company;share owner shares risk with the other owners
Shares can be bought and sold at will in the market
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One share of Disney
Source: www.hugovandermolen.nl/scripophily/Disney.php
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Types of Shares
Common Stock Represent a share in the assets and earnings of a company
Dividends are decided by the directors of the company
Preferred Stock Differ from common stock in regards to voting rights, dividend payout
(higher or guaranteed fixed rate of return), priority to obtaining assetsin case of dissolution
Issued to entice investors (e.g. when company is financially weak)
Share Classes Different classes of common stock with different dividends and voting
rights
E.g. Berkshire Hathaway issues Class B stocks with 1/200 votingright and 1/30 ownership value to small investors (Class A stocks sellfor over $100,000 per piece)
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One of the most admiredcompanies in the world
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Business Organization and CapitalStructure
Business Organization Sole proprietorship: Entity has no separate existence from owner, debt of
business is debt of owner
Partnership General: Partners manage business and are personally liable for its debt Limited: Certain limited partners give up ability to manage business in exchange
for limited liability on debt Limited Liability: All partners have some form of limited liability
Corporation: Artificial legal entity, shareholders have limited liability
Corporations have two ways to raise capital Issue stocks (equity) Issue bonds (debt)
The combination of equity and debt is called capital structure
In the event of dissolution, payment is carried out in order of hierarchy: Debt: junior/senior, secured/unsecured Equity: common/preferred
Forms of bankruptcy - bankruptcy chapters in the US Chapter 7 Liquidation Chapter 11 - Reorganization
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Stock mechanics: IPO
IPO (Initial Public Offering)
Company seeks listing on exchange
Investment bank sought out to be underwriter Underwriter needs to set IPO price; takes responsibility to buy stocks
if price sets too high to sell off into the market over time later
How is the price determined?
IPO stock is often underpriced
Con Less capital raised
Pro Ensures stocks are sold Auction
To minimize underpricing, Dutch auction is sometimes used
Dutch auction high asking price lowered until there is a buyer
Google Dutch-auctioned its shares at IPO; despite that, still rose 17% onfirst day
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The worlds largest IPO ever
Fast Facts:
IPO at US$0.39rose to US$0.45
Hang Seng Indexsurged 1.1%
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Top Banks - 2006
Source: Wikipedia
Trivia: Which of these banks are not results of mergers?
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Top Banks - 2008
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Source: http://financialranks.com/?p=69
http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/
http://financialranks.com/?p=69http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://financialranks.com/?p=69 -
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Stock Mechanics
Follow-on Offering
Issuance of stock subsequent to IPO
Dilutive: New shares are created, more shares therefore valueper share is reduced (why do it?)
Non-dilutive: Sale of shares by directors or insiders
Primary Offering Issuance of stocks by company
Secondary Offering Offer of stock by shareholder
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Stock Mechanics: Splits and Options
Stock splits 1:5 split = each share becomes 5 shares, value of each share is divided by 5 To make share accessible to investors, prevent fall in liquidity
Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is the most expensive stock in the US;BH has policy not to split stock; if GE hadnt split its stock 9 times since IPOin 1892, it would now be about $160,000 per share
Warrants Gives right to purchase company stocks at a strike price on a specified future
date When warrant is exercised, the company issues new shares of stock (call
options differ in this respect) Often added to bond issue for enticement
Employee stock options Call option that is issued to employee, usually executives, so as to align their
motivations with the companys Strike price typically set at the companys stock price on option grant day
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Backdating Scandal
Why the concern?
Who are the victims?
Source:http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2006/08/71533
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Pixar options backdating scandal
18Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/29/ann_mather_sec_filing_backdating/Date: 29th April 2008
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Stock Mechanics: Buyback andDividends
When company has too much money and has noplan on investing it, it can Buy back shares
Equal access scheme: company offers to buy back shares pro-rata
Selective buy-back: offers to buy back only from several
shareholders Any other reason for share buy-back?
Issue dividends Frequency: can be regular/announced or irregular/special
Forms of payment: Cash, stock, property Dates: Declaration, Ex-dividend, Record, Payment
Dividend play: someone buys stock to collect dividendsmartmove?
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Ex-Dividend Date Price Behaviour
Price falls on ex-dividend date
By how much?
Time
Ex-Dividend Date
Stock price level before
Stock price level after
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Taxes
Fast Facts
Capital Gains Tax:Tax levied on profit upon sales of capital assetSingapore: 0%USA: Long-term capital gains tax 15%
France: 27%
Dividends Tax:Singapore 0%
USA: 15% for most individual taxpayers
Arguments against:Double Taxation (this and income tax)
Arguments for:Different tax rates for income through active or inactive work
Source: Wikipedia
For more detailed info:
www.oecd.org
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In 1997, the Brazilian government imposed 0.38%tax on all financial transactions to raise revenue
Institutional traders then traded Brazilian stocks asAmerican depository receipts (ADRs) in New York toavoid the tax (owners have right to exchange ADRs
for shares they are issued by banks)
Tax raised less revenue than expected and liquidityin Sao Paulo Bovespa dropped (trading volume from1.2b reais a day in 1997 to 350m reais a day in2001)
In Sept 2001, the Brazilian government announcedthat stock transactions would be tax-exempt
Snippet: Unintended Consequences
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Stocks Dynamics: M&A
Mergers and Acquisitions
Combine to add value/Empire
building
Consensual merger/acquisitionor hostile takeover
Poison pill White knight
Cash merger/Stockmerger/Acquire assets
Leveraged Buyout (LBO)
Company X
Hostile acquirer
Friendly acquirer
Source: https://reader009.{domain}/reader009/html5/0512/5af71b2332017/5af71b30d3601.jpg
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Poison Pill and White Knight
Poison Pill
- Target company makes itsown stock less attractive tothe acquirer in order to avoid
takeover bids.
- e.g:
allows the existingshareholders (exceptbidding company) to buymore shares at a discount.
White knight
- A target company is facing ahostile takeover fromanother party.
- The white knight offers thetarget firm a way out with afriendly takeover.
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Mittal Steel Company
Mittal Steel Company largest steel companyin the world by volume
Source: Wikipedia
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Arcelor Mittal
White knight
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Arcelor Mittal
Started off hostile
White knight
Poison pill
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Arcelor Mittal
Source: Asia Times Online, Jan 27, 2006
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Merger (risk) Arbitrage
Cash merger Acquirer announces to purchase stocks of target company
Stock price rises in anticipation of the sale but not to the purchaseprice level due to risk that deal may not go through or may bedelayed
Arbitrageur may buy shares hoping that she may sell the shares atthe higher purchase price after the merger
Stock merger Acquirer announces to exchange stocks of the target for its own
stocks at a certain ratio
Arbitrageur may go long in one and short in the other in the hopethe profit may be reaped upon completion of the M&A
What can affect the deal from going through?
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Minority Shareholders Rights
A shareholder who owns asubstantial amount of shareshas a lot of say in the direction
of the company
Shareholder activism usesequity stake to put pressure on
management during AGMs Change financing structure, cut
cost, more environmentallyfriendly
Fund management companies
may adopt activism approach
In Singapore: SecuritiesInvestors Association(Singapore) or SIAS
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Carl Icahn - owns 4.98 percent ofYahoo common stock
May 13, 2008 - Icahn launched a proxycontest.
May 15, 2008 Icahn confirmed tocommerce a proxy fight to remove
Yahoo's Board of Directors in responseto their "irrational" actions in rejectingMicrosoft's takeover bid.
July 21, 2008 Icahn agreed to joinYahoo's Board of Directors in a deal thatwould end the proxy fight. According to
Minority Shareholders Rights
the agreement, the Yahoo Board willexpand by two directors to elevenmembers. Eight directors will stand forre-election while the remaining three
seats will include Icahn and twonominees that Icahn will recommend.
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Gain control of company through acquiring equity via the use ofdebt
Asset of acquired company used as collateral for debt Also known as bootstrap transactions Debt is obtained by issuing junk bonds Some notable names:
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) Creates limited partnerships to acquire corporations Finance some with own funds, the rest through the issuance of
junk bonds Investment banks, such as Drexel Burnham Lambert, led by junk
bond king Michael Milken, helped raised funds for LBO
At one point in 2007, BT reports that many firms in Asia were indanger of being taken over not because they were operatingbadly, but because they were low in debt!
Leveraged Buyout
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Credit Ratings
Junk
Investment Grade
For details:http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/ap/page.article/2,1,1,4,1148442391999.html
How does rating affectstock price of company?
What criteria are applied?Who pays for the rating?
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Sovereign Ratings
Source: www.fitchratings.com/shared/sovereign_ratings_history.pdf
Guess the ratings of the major financial
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Guess the ratings of the major financialinstitutions in Singapore
DBS
UOB
OCBC
Temasek Holdings
GIC
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Problems with Ratings companies
Little problem when ratingcompanies for straightforwarddebt issuance
Problematic when ratingcomplex instruments
Raters from the ratingcompanies were not paiddirectly by the debt issuing
companies no conflict ofinterestBut raters of complexinstruments sometimes werepaid conflict of interest
Ratings companies can roil themarketTheir pronouncements areimportantBut they are after all humansand are prone to errors injudgement
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Ideas about Stock Prices
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Price of stock and value of company
Price of stock is what you read in the papers or off Bloomberg
Value of company is a more subjective concept
What affects ones valuation of a company? Management how it funds itself, the investment the company
makes
The business it is doing and the business environment the riskand opportunities
The economy at large
How do most in the market guess the price of the stock? Work out personal valuation of company Guess prevailing perception of companys value Fundamental analysis Technical Analysis
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Views of Stock Prices
Forecasters View
Fundamental Analysis: company fundamentals,macroeconomic factors, politics, etc.
Technical Analysis: patterns in price historysuggests future movements
Result: (Strong) Buy/Sell recommendation
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Views of Stock Prices
Economists View
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): stock prices has
already factored in information*, so no point trying touse that sort of information in trying to beat the market
Information:
Financial data Weak form
All publicly available information Semi-strong form
All information Strong form
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):
))(()( fmimfi RRERRE +=
Security Market Linebeta
Asset return
Companys stock return
Markets stock return
Risk-free rate
Sensitivity to market returns
Risk premium
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Views of Stock Prices
QF view Stock prices evolve stochastically
No point trying to guess with precision future pricemoves
Instead, the tools of statistics and probability can
be used to say something definitive/on averageabout prices
Discrete model: prices evolve per unit of time,
each move is either up or down with probability p Continuous model: prices evolve by the
Geometric Brownian Motion
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The Binomial Tree Model
1
2
4
1
1/4
1/2
Day 2Day 1
$X
$2X $0.5X
Toss a coin!
Day i
Day i+1
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Continuous limit
Let dt -> 0
What do we see?
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Random Walk 5 steps
97.5
98
98.5
99
99.5
100
100.5
101
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
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Random Walk 100 steps
99.5
100
100.5
101
101.5
102
102.5
103
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
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Random Walk 1000 steps
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Th R d W lk M d l
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The Random Walk Model
$X
$(X+2)
Day i
Day i+1
$X
2
The normal distribution
Th B i M ti
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The Brownian Motion
As dt -> 0, the motionobtained is called theBrownian motion or Wienerprocess
The limit is said to be
continuous
Commonly denoted or
It is the basic building blockfor continuous price modelsin finance
tZ
dt
tW
S
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Some basic continuous models
Source: Options, Futures and other Derivative, John C. Hull
G t i B i M ti
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Geometric Brownian Motion
Two quantities declared as definitivecharacteristic of stock price
Mean drift (measures company growth) Volatility (measures degree of price
fluctuation/riskiness of company)
Geometric Brownian Motion de facto model ofstock price in finance
tSdlnRoughly, but not quite:
t
t
t dWdtS
dS +=
N t diffi lt thi k
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Not as difficult as you think
Step 1: Discretize
Step 2: Excel
ZdtdtWWdtS
SS
idtdtiidt
idtdti
+=+=
+
+
)( )1()1(
Ideas about Models
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Ideas about Models
Models have underlying assumptions
Stochastic models such as the Geometric BrownianMotion are not meant for forecasting; they are usedbecause they are mathematically tractable and they
come with parameters that we can empiricallyassociate with intuitive/observable financialquantities (drift = growth, vol = riskiness); they givean average sense of the future evolution of prices
Stochastic models (GBM, Levy models, etc.) areused to price and hedge financial derivatives
Your preference?
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Fundamental analysts Look at fundamental reasons/stories things
happening in the world
Technical analysts Look at patterns in price histories
Financial engineers Believe in statistics, use statistical models to
describe price movements
Which style do you prefer?
Your preference?
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Stock Exchanges
Stock Markets
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Stock markets are concentrated at stockexchanges
Oldest stock exchange: Amsterdam StockExchange Established 1602 by Dutch East India Company
Merged with Brussels Stock Exchange and ParisStock Exchange on Sept 22, 2000 to form
Euronext
Traditional open outcry system
These days electronic exchanges
Stock Markets
Stock Exchanges: Development
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Stock Exchanges: Development
Stock Exchanges: Development
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Stock Exchanges: Development
Stock Exchanges: Development
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Stock Exchanges: Development
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5039412.stm
Stock Exchanges: Development
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Stock Exchanges: Development
How does an exchange make money?
Stock Exchanges: as a business
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Stock Exchanges: as a business
Source: http://www.marinemoney.com/forums/SIN04/Presentations/Ein.pdf
Stock Exchanges: as a business
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Stock Exchanges: as a business
http://info.sgx.com/SGXWeb_ST.nsf/NEWDOCNAME/REITS_INTRO?OpenDocument
Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated
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Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated
Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated
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Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated
Excerpt from "Regulating The Capital Markets: Making Market Discipline WorkSpeech by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Managing Director, MAS, at the Investment Fund Awards 2001Source: http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/statements/2001/Regulating_The_Capital_Markets__Making_Market_Discipline_Work__16_Feb_2001.html
Trading rules
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Trading rules
SGX Rulebooks and ManualsSource: http://info.sgx.com/SGXWeb_RMR.nsf/NEWDOCNAME/Rulebooks_and_Manuals
Trading rules
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Trading rules
SGX Trading RulesSource: http://info.sgx.com/SGXRuleb.nsf/VwCPForm_SGX_ST_RULES?OpenView
Damping down the activity
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a p g do t e act ty
Extreme volatility in the market can be prelude tocrashes
Regulatory responses to extreme volatility Trading halts: trading is stopped when prices have moved
or will imminently move by some specified amount
Price limits: all trade prices are required to be within acertain range on a given day
Transaction taxes: restrict trading by taxing it
Margin requirements and position limits: restrict sizes ofpositions that traders can accumulate
Collars: restrict access to trading systems
Uptick rule: short selling is only permitted following a trade
which is an uptick
Trading Halt
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g
Following 1987 market crash, U.S. stock and futures exchanges adopted a setof coordinated trading halt rules
Level 1 halt Condition: DJIA drops by about more than 10% from its closing value on the previous
day Before 2:30pm: halt for an hour Between 2:30pm and 3:30pm: halt for half and hour After 3:30pm: if there is no Level 2 halt, then no halt
Level 2 halt Condition: DJIA drops by more than 20% from its value on the previous day Before 1pm: halt for 2 hours Between 1pm and 2pm: halt for 1 hour After 2pm: if there is no Level 3 halt, then no halt
Level 3 halt Condition: DJIA drops by more than 30% from its value on the previous day Halt for the whole day
Why halt?
Operational Structure
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p
Dealers/BrokersOrder-driven
Clearing Agent
SettlementCustodians/Depositories
Investor
T+3
Brazilian Straddle
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Straddle is a trading position in two different types of instruments, one long, oneshort, risk-offsetting
Technically bankrupt traders do not have sufficient wealth to settle their trades;
if prices do not change in their favour, they will soon be forced into actualbankruptcy
When traders are in technical bankruptcy, they lose nothing by massivelyincreasing their positions
If prices change in their favour, their financial woes are over If not, those who guarantee their trades will suffer the losses
This strategy is called Brazilian straddle: large market position vs one-way airticket to Brazil
Clearing members check on these monitor traders who clear through them closely require frequent position report throughout the day, require margin payments to be made when prices move against their customers prohibit customers who cannot settle from trading
contractually allocate profits made by technically bankrupt customers to clearing firm ifproblem not reported
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Quotes and Orders
Stock QuotesBid/Ask Whos buying/selling?
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71Source: The Business Times, May 4, 2007
Orders
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The specifications of an order Price
Number of shares Order type
Market
Limit Stop
Market-if-touched
Validity/expiration instructions
Quantity instructions
Other instructions Display instructions
Market and Limit Orders
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Market order is an instruction to trade at thebest price currently available on the market
Market orders pay the bid-ask spread (price forbeing impatient)
Limit order: Limit price
Instruction to trade at the limit price or a price
better than this If its a limit buy order at $5, youre guaranteed to
buy at that price
Limit buy/sell is usually set lower/higher thanmarket
Limit Order Book
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Best prices
Source: Trading & Exchanges Market Microstructure for Practitioners, Larry Harris
Validity/Expiry, Quantity and DisplayInstructions
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Examples of validity/expiry instructions Day orders: valid for trading day only
Good-till-cancel: valid till trader expressly cancels
Good-until: valid till a certain date Immediate-or-cancel
Good-after: valid after a certain date
Examples of quantity instructions All-or-none
Minimum-or-none
Display instructions To show no more than some maximum quantity to avoid market
moving away from them
Limit orders are options
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When trader issues a limit order, he is in effectwriting an option gives the other traders the optionto trade with him Limit buy order: like put option (because expecting price to
fall)
Limit sell order: like call option (because expecting price to
rise)
Factors affecting value of this option Limit price: too far behind market, little value
How long order will stand: allow other traders to defertrading decision
Price volatility: in volatile market, limit orders are valuable,because probability of execution is increased
Option view explains some phenomena
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Bid/ask spreads are wide in volatile market option valuable, traders dont like to give away valuable options,
set the limit price far from the market to reduce value of optionthey give away
Fast traders have advantage over slow traders they quickly take up the valuable options
The nature of liquidity Liquidity is the ability to trade at low cost Traders give away options (limit orders), they offer liquidity, in
return, they are compensated with the potential to realize a better
trading price
Why do markets consolidate (traders like to trade in the sameplace)? They offer lots of options as a whole
Other order types
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Stop order Stop price Stop buy/sell order price usually set higher/lower than
market
Market-if-touched order Touch price If market price becomes equal or better than touch price,
the market-if-touched order becomes a market order
Stop orders and Liquidity
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Stop orders accelerate price changes
Say a trader has a large stop sell order at $100if best bid falls
below $100its activatedtrader then contributes to thefalling market by trying to sell the stock
Stop orders add momentum to the market
Momentum traders Buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling May issue stop orders to brokers Destabilize prices
Contrarian traders Buy when prices are falling and sell when prices are rising May issue limit orders to brokers Stabilize prices
Reflect on this
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So is the dynamics/stochastics of stock pricesakin to the toss of a coin?
Hmm..what should I bid next?Twice the current bid or half of it?Lets see what the coin says
The Trader Thinker
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Indices
Indices
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A market index represents the health of the marketas a whole
An index may be Price-weighted: proportional to the sum of prices of the
index components E.g. DJIA, Nikkei 225
Value (capitalization) -weighted: proportional to the sum ofmarket capitalization (price x number) of index components E.g. S&P 500
What is STI?
Indices are often used as performance benchmarksby mutual funds beat the market
Indices
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Some major indices US: S&P 500, Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000 UK: FTSE 100
Brazil: Ibovespa Japan: Nikkei 225, Topix HK: Hang Seng Index Singapore: STI South Korea: KOSPI China: SSE Composite Asia: S&P Asia 50 Latin America: S&P Latin America 40 Europe: S&P Europe 350, FTSE Euro 100
Seehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_indices#Asia
The science of indexing
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Ideas about Indices
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Index gives an average view of the market but average can havemany dimensions Market capitalization Price Growth
Index represents market return and volatility
Index represents diversification Investing in an index?
Index as an asset?
Option on S&P 500: right to buy 500 stocks?
Many funds use index as a gauge of performance
Hedge funds are also called absolute value funds they dont useindex as gauge of performance
Index instruments:Options on Indices
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86Source: http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/workbench/products/sp500.htm
Index strategies: Index Fund
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87 Source: https://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT
Index Tracking not bad!
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88 Source: https://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsPriceHistory?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT
How did they do it?
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One possible way
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0 or 1
Units oftock i
Total number of stocks
Limit the number of shares of each stock
Upper bound on transaction cost
Value of tracking portfolio
Source: An evolutionary heuristic for the index tracking problem, J.E. Beasley, N. Meade, T.-J. Chang
One possible way
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Tracking error
Excess return
Index return
Tracking portfolio return
Objective function
Source: An evolutionary heuristic for the index tracking problem, J.E. Beasley, N. Meade, T.-J. Chang
What assumptions underliethese techniques?
Buy an index?
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Questions:
Why does UBS want to buyAIGs commodity index?
What determines the success
of an index?
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Section 2: Currencies
Trading Money
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Money is traded due to demand and supply forces
Whats the worth of money? Whats its function?
What demand forces? What supply forces?
A medium of exchange
Buying a good for S$100 (on the flip side: selling S$100!) How to buy a foreign good?
One of the earliest currencies: Greek coins
Basic human innovation: better than barter!
What have been used as money?
Sheep, shells, whale teeth, tobacco, nails, oxen, fish-hooks,jewels, elephant tails, wampum
Greek silver coin, face of Athena, c.480B.C.(Source: Economic History of the World)
Trading Money
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A unit of account
Measure value of goods relative to a currency: price tags
A finance jargon meaning the same: numeraire
A store of value
Companies hold ready cash for daily transactions What affects currencies worth as store of value?
Banana money zero worth now
Germany is known for conservative monetary policy and
aversion to inflation historical root? (fear of hyperinflation)
Hyperinflation
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German hyperinflation (c. 1923)
1923-issue 50 million mark banknote. Worth approximately $1 US when printed,this sum would have been worth approximately $12 million nine years earlier.The note was practically worthless a few weeks later due to continued inflation
Inflation 192324: a woman feeds her tiled stove with money.At the time, burning money was less expensive than buying firewood.Source: Wikipedia
In a hyperinflation, the value of money relative to goods reduce rapidly
Currencies
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Governments print paper money, mint coins Careful about it as it can cause inflation
Money is commonly accepted by fiat
An avenue of national pride
How many currencies are there around the world? There are slightly more than 200 currencies around the world
Some countries do not have their own currencies, e.g. Ecuador, Panama, East Timor
Useful link: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
Trivia: What is the currency of Luxembourg, South Africa, Botswana
First President of SingaporeYusof bin Ishak
Singpaores National Coat of Arms
Major Currencies
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The United States Dollar (USD)
The Euro (EUR)
The Japanese Yen (JPY) The Great Britain Pound (GBP) (aka Sterling)
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
ISO 4217 Currency Code Usually first 2 letters refer to country, third letter refers to
currency name
What is CHF? Whats the ISO code for Canadian Dollar?
What about Mexican Peso?
Foreign Exchange turnover
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99Source: BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey
The Foreign Exchange Market
H d il f b USD
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Has an average daily turnover of about USD2 trillion (daily turnover at NYSE before
merger with Euronext was about USD 40-50billion)
Worlds largest financial market Some participants relatively larger than others
But all small in the grand scale of things
Largely unregulated OTC market Central banks monitor currencies together with
interest rates (monetary policies)
The Foreign Exchange Market
K i
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Key instruments
Spot
Forwards Swaps
Derivatives: futures, options, exotic options
FX k t i l t 24 7
The Foreign Exchange Market
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FX market is close to 24-7
Opens in Wellington, New Zealand, on their Monday at 7am
Closes on Friday evening in the US
Used to be traded via telephone or telex; now e-trades, online
Quotes and information readily available(www.forexnews.com, www.dailyfx.com,www.fxstreet.com ), market very liquid
Spot Quotes
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USDCAD
EUR|USD
Currency pair: USDEUR or USD|EUR
Spot Quotes
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Currency pair: USDEUR or USD|EUR Read Dollar Euro
USD is base currency, EUR is quote currency
First currency thought of as asset, e.g. EURUSD 1.3583means that 1 Euro is worth USD 1.3582
Its a price: price of 1 USD in terms of EUR
European/indirect terms: USD|EUR
American/direct terms: EUR|USD
Nicknames: GBP|USD = Cable; AUD|USD = Aussie; NZD|USD = Kiwi
Spot Quotes
USD|CHF 1 2162
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USD|CHF 1.2162
Market lingo
I buy dollar yen! A five-pip decline in EUR|USD
Euro-Dollar is trading at one-twenty-eight the
figure USD|JPY rises one big figure from 111.00
2 pips: smallest quoted unit100 pips make 1 big figure
Triangular arbitrage
USD|EUR 1 3583
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USD|EUR 1.3583
EUR|Yen 162.894
Yen|USD 0.0083
Do you smell anything fishy?
USD|EUR 0 7362
Triangular arbitrage
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USD|EUR 0.7362
EUR|Yen 162.894
Yen|USD 0.0083
Still fishy?
Tim Weithers, author of Foreign Exchange APractical Guide to the FX Markets, mentioned
someone in class asking UBSs FX spot dealers ifthey had ever done traingular arbitrageyes, I did,once, back in 1977
Marketmakers
Whos quoting?
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Marketmakers stand ready to buy if client wishes to sell and vice
versa Found in banks, brokerages (e.g. www.forex.com)
Earn through bid-ask spread (buy low sellhigh) Measure of how liquid the market is (how easy it
is to buy and sell) Measure of profit marketmaker makes
Quote with bid/ask: EUR|AUD 1.7686|90
The handle
What drives exchange rates?
Who determines exchange
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grates? Nobody Floating exchange
rate era (read history of foreign
exchange)
Equilibrium considerations Purchasing Power Parity
exchange rates are determinedby relative prices of similarbaskets of goods, e.g. Big Maccosts S$3 in Singapore andUS$2 in the US, so theexchange rate by PPP ought to
be USD|SIN 1.50 The Economists Big Mac
Index is a widely cited indicatorof PPP
Theoretical conception: Equilibrium considerations
What drives exchange rates?
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p q Interest rate parity: because one can exchange currencies and
deposit at the corresponding interest rate, exchange rates andinterest rates satisfy a no-arbitrage relationship
Macroeconomic factors
US current account deficits
About US$800b, 7% US GDP spends more than earns Daily international funding is on the order of US$8b
Looming fear that it will trigger a large and rapid decline in USD
Japans almost zero interest rate encouraged the yen-carrytrade
Monetary policies, country economics, political stability,
happenings in other asset classes, etc.
Snapshot: Thai baht
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Snapshot: Argentine peso
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Section 3: Fixed Income Rates
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Section 3: Fixed Income Rates
Fixed Income - Overview
Investment that gives regular return
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Institution raises funds with it, incurring debt
2 main market Money market (< 1yr) Capital market (longer term)
Instruments Notes and Bonds
Corporate Government, municipal
Floating rate note (FRN)
Swaps Credit-linked products Asset-backed securities (ABS) Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)
Money market instruments: Commercial Paper (CP), Certificate ofDeposit (CD), Bankers Acceptance (BA), T-Bills, Fed Funds,Eurodollar deposits, Repo, money market mutual funds
Interest Rate Fundamentals
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Interest Rate Fundamentals
Basic Concepts in Fixed Income
Discounting and Compounding
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Discounting and Compounding
Present Value (PV)
Discounting Factor (f)
Rate (r)
N days
Whats the Present Value?
Today
$K
Discounting: PV = K x fCompounding: K = PV / ff = 1/(1+r x DAYCOUNTFRAC)Compounding Number
Basic Concept in Fixed Income
Rates are stated annualized
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Day count convention
Simple vs continuous
Interest rates are usually stated annualized
Annualized rates
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y
In other words, it describes the amount ofinterest earned in 1 year
If $100 is deposited at 5% for 6 months, whatsthe interest at maturity?
Interest = x 5% x $100 = $25
Day count convention
Slightly more generally, what is the interest earned on
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9
$100 at 5% if the term is from Jan 10, 2007 till 3 Mar,2007?
The interest earned is $100 x FRAC x 5%, where
FRAC is a fraction that depends on the particular day-count convention that is adopted
Some common day count conventions: Actual/Actual,Actual/365, Actual/360
Day count convention
Actual/Actual:
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0
2007 has 365 days (not leap year)
Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days
FRAC = 52/365 Interest = $100 x 52/365 x 5% = $0.7123
Actual/365
Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days FRAC = 52/365
Interest = $0.7123
Actual/360 Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days
FRAC = 52/360
Interest = $0.7222
Day count convention
Most common is Actual/360 and is used by USD and
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1
EUR
What is FRAC for Actual/360 when the term is 1 year?
Other conventions abound: 30/360: each month is treated as having 30 days
ACT/252: common is South American instruments; 252 is thenumber of business days in a year
Day count convention
$100 is deposited from Jan 4, 2007 to Jun 8, 2007
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2
Day count convention: Actual/360
Quoted interest rate: 7%
What do you get on Jun 8, 2007?
Compounding
What is the interest earned on $100 at 5% if the termi f J 1 2007 till J l 1 2009?
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3
is from Jan 1, 2007 till Jul 1, 2009?
For such a long period, the deposits interest is earnedby compounding
Suppose the compounding frequency is semi-annual
If day count convention is not taken into account:
Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2009
6m 6m 6m 6m
100 100x1.025 100x1.0252 100x1.0253 100x1.0253
=107.6891
Compounding
If day count convention, say Actual/360, is taken intot th t l di i d t b
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4
account, the actual compounding periods must bedetermined: e.g. Jul 1, 2007; Jan 1, 2008; Jul 1, 2008;Jan 1, 2009 in addition to the start and maturity
Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2007: 181 days
Jul 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008: 184 days
Jan 1, 2008 Jul 1, 2008: 182 days
Jul 1, 2008 Jan 1, 2009: 184 days
Jan 1, 2009 Jul 1, 2009: 181 days
Payoff at maturity =100(1+181/360x5%)(1+184/360x5%)(1+182/360x5%)
x (1+184/360x5%)(1+181/360x5%) = 113.3249
Interest rate: r
General form:Disregarding day count convention
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Principal: N
Compounding frequency: n times a year
Term: m years
The payoff at maturity is: Nx(1+r/n)m/n
General form:With day count convention
If d i i k i h
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If day count convention is taken into account, the
actual dates in the compounding periods must benoted
Say: t0, t1, , tk
The payoff at maturity is:
N(1+FRAC(t0, t1)r) (1+FRAC(t1, t2)r)(1+FRAC(tk-1, tk )r)
If rate = 5%, compounding frequency is quarterly, whatis the equivalent annual rate?
Equivalent annual rate
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is the equivalent annual rate?
The interest earned in 1 year (on $1 principal)= (1+1/4 * 5%)4 1 = 0.050945
The equivalent annual rate is 5.0945%
If compounding frequency is n times a year, what doyou think is the equivalent annual rate when n is verylarge?
The exponential function
Observe:
(1 1/10 * 5%)10 1 051140
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(1+1/10 * 5%)10 = 1.051140
(1+1/100 * 5%)100 = 1.051258
(1+1/1000 * 5%)1000 = 1.051270
(1+1/10000 * 5%)10000 = 1.051271
In fact, exp(0.05) = 1.051271
Generally,
Leonhard Euler (1707-1783) on CHF 10
If rate = 5% is continuous, what is the interest on $100deposit after 1 year?
Interest with continuous rate
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deposit after 1 year?
Payoff after 1 year = 100e0.05 = 105.1271
Interest = 5.1271
What is the payoff after 2.55 years?
Payoff after 2.55 years = 100e2.55x0.05 = 113.5985
Generally, rate = r, term = T years, principal = N
=> Payoff = NerT
Principal = 1
Term = 1 year
Difference between rates
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0
Term = 1 year
Rate = r
Payoff if rate is continuous: er
Payoff if rate is simple: 1+r
Payoff if compounding frequency is quarterly: (1+r/4)4
Binomial expansion: (1+r/4)4 = 1+r+6(r/4)2+
Taylor series expansion: er = 1+r+r2/2+r3/6+
The payoffs are roughly equal provided r is small
Equivalent rates
You own Bank Smiley and you want to pay an interestof $5 for a 1-year deposit on $100
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1
of $5 for a 1 year deposit on $100
What is the simple rate (equivalent annual rate)?
100x(1+rsimple) = 105 => rsimple = 105/100 1 = 5%
What is the continuous rate?100exp(rcont) = 105 => rcont = ln(105/100) = 4.879016%
What is the rate if compounding frequency is quarterly?
100(1+r4/4)4=105=>r4= ((105/100)1/4-1)x4 = 4.908894%
Snap!
1) What rate of interest with continuous compoundingis equivalent to 15% per annum with monthly
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2
is equivalent to 15% per annum with monthlycompounding?
2) A deposit account pays 12% per annum withcontinuous compounding, but interest is actually paidquarterly. How much interest will be paid each quarteron a $10,000 deposit?
In Practice
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3
Notional Notional/Face Value
C F
Bonds terminology
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Coupon Frequency
Maturity Accrued interest Cash/dirty price // Quoted/clean price
Dirty Price = Clean Price + Accrued Interest
Discount (Coupon) Rate
(Reference) Floating, Fixed Payment in fine (reset date and coupon date coincide)/in arrear
(reset at beginning of coupon period)
Day-count convention Yield: a single number that describes the quality of the instrument Currency Issuer/Credit rating
10-yr US Treasury Note
Settlement date:
1/18/2005
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Current (trade) date:
1/17/2005 Maturity:
11/15/2014
Coupon rate: 4.25%
Coupon frequency: S/A Face value: 1,000,000
Quoted price:
100+10/32+1/64 =100.328125 per 100 face
Day count convention:act/act
11/15/2004-1/18/2005:
64 days
UST convention: -10 means 10/32; + means 1/64Bloomberg convention: M = 1,000
Cashflows in a Bond (fixed rate)
F l
Day count conventionAccrued interest belongs to seller
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Face value+ coupon
Coupon= 4.25% x N/365 x Face
Interest accruesat 4.25% for this period;
Payment at end of period: in-arrear
MaturityIssue date
Coupon frequency: SA
Settlementdate
Tradedate
Accrued interest belongs to seller
Clean price: discount these cashflows to settlement date; nearest coupon only remaining fraction taken
Cash/Dirty vs Quoted/Clean Prices
A
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Dirty price = Clean price (buyer receives full coupon A, no accruedInterest for seller)
6m 6m
tdy
Dirty price = Clean price + accrued interest (part of A belongs toseller as he has been holding on to the bond for the first 3m of the
coupon period)
3m 6m
tdy A
3m
T-bill
Bid > Ask ?! Free-lunch!?
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Bid price
=100 2.57= 97.43per hundred face
Ask price= 100-2.56= 97.44per hundred face
Length of investment bills, notes, bonds
Want to invest in fixed income? Thinkabout it
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Fixed or floating coupon Bonds: coupon rate is fixed, matures in a (moderately) long
time FRNs: floating rate version of bonds
Interest rate environment (the spot curve) changesover time serves as prices of fixed incomeinstruments and as expectations of future ratemovements
Which strategy do you choose buy-and-hold-till-maturity or opportunistic trading
Many rates
LIBOR
EURIBOR Spot rate
Forward rate
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0
SIBOR
Fed Funds rate
Prime rate
Overnight rate
Swap rate
Constant maturity swaprate (CMS)
Overnight indexed swaprate (OIS)
Par rate
The above areequivalent to each other
Short rate,instantaneous forwardrates, market rates
One of the most widely watched/referenced rates CMEs Eurodollar futures (most heavily traded short-term interest rate
futures contract) are based on USD LIBOR3m
LIBOR and LIBOR Fixing
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London Interbank Offered Rate
Interest rate at which a bank is willing to lend funds to another bank(inter-bank market)
Terms: overnight, 1w, 2w, 1-12m
How is it produced? BBA maintains a panel of 8 contributor banks Top and bottom quartile are disregarded Middle two quartiles are averaged Announced shortly after 11am each day
Usage of LIBOR rates is via simple compounding with ACT/360
convention: e.g. x (1 + L x ACT/360)
Spot rate
A spot rate of N years is the rate at which interestaccrues if cash were deposited for N years from today
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2
The graph of the function t |-> r(t), where t is time tomaturity and r(t) is the corresponding spot rate, iscalled the spot (rate) curve
Curve under normal conditions looks like this:
t
r
Whats your mood, Mr Banker?
r
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3
t
t
r
Source: http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/AboutCES/smp/19/smhap.gif
Fundamentals of Finance - 1
The Fundamental Strategy of Finance:
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Buy Low, Sell High
t
r
Low High
How to capture the discrepancy and realize it as profit?
Borrow short (term), lend long (term)
The Business of Commercial Banking
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Short term rate r 1 + 1 year Long term rate R 2 years
Liability: [(1+r)-1] = r in first year, r + r(1+r) =r2 + 2r in the second year
Revenue: (1+R)2 1 = 2R + R2 in the secondyear
The interest rate environment extended view
Very low now: Bernanke at the helm in new financial territory
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Greenspan Put
(lower rates to stimulate economy afterDot Com bust
Volker stepping on the brakes
to stop inflation, which begansince 1973 oil price shocks
Ideas about the spot curve (termstructure)
Expectations Theory Long-term interest rates reflect expectation of future short-
term interest rates
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Market Segmentation Theory Rate of a term indicate demand and supply for borrowing
and lending for that term
Liquidity Preference Theory Investors like to deposit short-term for liquidity reasons Borrowers like to borrow long-term to lock in rates
Banks will need to finance long-term loans with short-termdeposits; any change in short-term environment willadversely affect the financing => excessive interest rate risk
Banks therefore raise long-term rates to reduce demand forlong-term borrowings relative to short-term depositions
What affects rates?
Government monetary policies
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US FOMC announcement of rate hike/rise Holds 8 regularly scheduled meetings each year
Date of each meeting is confirmed at the meeting
preceding it
Happenings in other markets
Stock/commodity market red-hot indicative ofinflation pressure
Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
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9 Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
Take a look!
Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
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Fed Dec 16, 2008 Monetary PolicyPress Release
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This is
unconventional
Fed Funds Rate Target vs Effective
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2Source: http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/todays_market/recent_commentary/unconventional_0_to_25_range.html
What now?
Nominal interest rate near zero economists call this (near) liquiditytrap
That means: people would rather hold on to money than to spend it (or
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p p y p (make short term investments rather than long term investments)
Major central banks use interest rates as tool to stimulate economy (orcool it down)
With rates near 0, and economy needs lots of stimulation HOW?
Various views Helicopter Money - give money directly to businesses, which is what the
2008 $700B US Govt Bailout Plan is supposed to do
Deficit Spending spend on infrastructural projects in recession and underdeficit conditions to stimulate economy (the view is that short-term policiesshould weigh over long-term policies to get out of the present crisisinKeynes words In the long run, were all dead)
Snap!
1) LIBID vs LIBOR
Guess what is LIBID
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Which is higher?
2) Why are US Treasury rates significantly
lower than other rates that are close to risk-free?
Modelling Interest Rates
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What do you think?
In the long run, whats the differencebetween the price of a stock (assuming the
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company thrives and does not go bankrupt)and an interest rate, such as the USDLIBOR3m rate?
Mean Reversion
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7Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull
The Vasicek Model
Vasiceks model is
dzdtrbadr += )(mean reversion speed
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dzdtrbadr +)(
r = r(t) short rate Wiener process
volatility
reversion level
Vasicek Model is tractable
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9Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull
Term Structure according to theVasicek Model
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0Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull
What is short rate?
Suppose short rate is r(t) (0
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Then discount factor is
Roughly, the interest earned between the
period (t, t+dt) is r(t)dt on $1
If short rate is stochastic, and if the (stochastic)
payoff of an instrument (that pays at time T) isfT , then the instrument is worth today at
e 0
T
dttr
feE
T
0)( (taken wrt risk neutral measure)
Theres only 1 stock price
Interest rate modelling is more difficultthan stock price modelling
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Theres a whole term structure of interestrates!
Correlation exists between rates: e.g. 1-yearspot rate is correlated with 2-year spot rate
Why is the Vasicek Model simplistic from thisperspective?
Section 4: Others
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UNDERLYING assets/REFERENCEindices, relative to?
Financial derivatives are financial instruments that stipulatecashflows in the future whose sizes depend on the prices ofcertain underlying assets or the magnitudes of certain referenceindices
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Vanilla European option
Call option : Payoff Max(ST K, 0) at maturity T
Put option : Payoff Max(K - ST, 0) at maturity T
Inverse Floater
A note that pays coupons periodically (e.g. semi-annually) of acertain percentage of a notional amount
What certain percentage? Max(0, 8% - LIBOR3m) xDayCountFraction
Inflation index
Index used is Consumer Price Index
Inflation derivatives
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Inflation cap
Inflation swap
Inflation swaption
Inflation bond
Inflation cap payoff:
Temperature
HDD: Heating degree days CDD: Cooling degree days
A = average of highest and lowest temperature during
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the day at a specified weather station A days HDD := max(0,65-A)
A days CDD := max(0,A-65)
Example of a weather derivative: Call option on cumulative HDD during February 2005
Strike price 700 Rate of $10,000 per degree day
If cumulative HDD = 820, payoff = (820-700) x 10,000 =1,200,000
Temperature
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7 Source: http://www.fenews.com/fen51/one_time_articles/weather-derivatives/weather-derivatives.html
Temperature
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8 Source: http://www.fenews.com/fen51/one_time_articles/weather-derivatives/weather-derivatives.html
Volatility
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Source: CBOEs website
Volatility
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Source: CBOEs website
Hmm
Property derivatives are making inroads intothe mainstream finance world they arebased on property indices
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Interesting thoughthow do writers of exotic
derivatives on indices hedge their risks?
Section 5: Epilogue
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Financial derivatives are contracts that refer to anunderlying asset or a reference index or rate
S f h j l hi h h
The Points
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Some of the major asset classes which havecommonly served as underlying assets for derivativesare the equities, currencies and commodities. From
the fixed income world, interest rates are often used inderivative contracts as reference rates.
The significance of being an underlying of a derivativeis that the derivative attempts to alter the risk profile ofthe underlying asset.
Prices from different asset classes and different rates are drivenby a complicated web of factors. This results in qualitativelydifferent price and return histories. This is important as onefundamental piece of the theory of derivatives pricing is the
th ti ll d d l f th d l i i / t / t
The Points
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mathematically assumed model of the underlying price/rate/returnstochastics.
The Geometric Brownian Model is the de facto model of returns
stochastics in finance, even though it is far from being accurate.Financial engineers have improved the modelling by adoptingmore complicated models of price/rate/return stochastics.
This lecture describes the complexities that make up each assetclass to highlight the simple-minded nature of the mathematicalmodels.
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