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    Underlying Assets and Reference

    Indices

    QF 301

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    Contents

    Section 1: Equities Panaroma Ideas about stock prices Stock Exchanges Quotes and Orders Indices

    Section 2: Currencies

    Section 3: Fixed Income Rates Interest Rate Fundamentals In Practice

    Modelling Interest Rates

    Section 4: Others

    Section 5: Epilogue

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    To understand derivatives, which are officially first and foremostfinancial instruments to modify risk profiles of certain underlying

    assets or reference rates, we need to have an idea what thoseassets or reference rates are and the respective marketmechanisms and factors affecting them

    This lecture shows you the tip of the iceberg

    It is hoped that the exposure will illuminate to you thesignificance of economic/financial/business news in the papers,

    on the internet and in magazines

    It is also hoped that the noise that is one component ofderivatives pricing and hedging models compresses into

    several equations an huge area that is highly complex andinteresting

    Learning Objectives

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    Section 1: Equities

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    Panorama

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    The Concept of Equity

    By issuing shares, companies can raise capital topursue business opportunities and meet its operationalneeds

    Owning shares is like owning a piece of the company;share owner shares risk with the other owners

    Shares can be bought and sold at will in the market

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    One share of Disney

    Source: www.hugovandermolen.nl/scripophily/Disney.php

    http://www.hugovandermolen.nl/scripophily/Disney.phphttp://www.hugovandermolen.nl/scripophily/Disney.php
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    Types of Shares

    Common Stock Represent a share in the assets and earnings of a company

    Dividends are decided by the directors of the company

    Preferred Stock Differ from common stock in regards to voting rights, dividend payout

    (higher or guaranteed fixed rate of return), priority to obtaining assetsin case of dissolution

    Issued to entice investors (e.g. when company is financially weak)

    Share Classes Different classes of common stock with different dividends and voting

    rights

    E.g. Berkshire Hathaway issues Class B stocks with 1/200 votingright and 1/30 ownership value to small investors (Class A stocks sellfor over $100,000 per piece)

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    One of the most admiredcompanies in the world

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    Business Organization and CapitalStructure

    Business Organization Sole proprietorship: Entity has no separate existence from owner, debt of

    business is debt of owner

    Partnership General: Partners manage business and are personally liable for its debt Limited: Certain limited partners give up ability to manage business in exchange

    for limited liability on debt Limited Liability: All partners have some form of limited liability

    Corporation: Artificial legal entity, shareholders have limited liability

    Corporations have two ways to raise capital Issue stocks (equity) Issue bonds (debt)

    The combination of equity and debt is called capital structure

    In the event of dissolution, payment is carried out in order of hierarchy: Debt: junior/senior, secured/unsecured Equity: common/preferred

    Forms of bankruptcy - bankruptcy chapters in the US Chapter 7 Liquidation Chapter 11 - Reorganization

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    Stock mechanics: IPO

    IPO (Initial Public Offering)

    Company seeks listing on exchange

    Investment bank sought out to be underwriter Underwriter needs to set IPO price; takes responsibility to buy stocks

    if price sets too high to sell off into the market over time later

    How is the price determined?

    IPO stock is often underpriced

    Con Less capital raised

    Pro Ensures stocks are sold Auction

    To minimize underpricing, Dutch auction is sometimes used

    Dutch auction high asking price lowered until there is a buyer

    Google Dutch-auctioned its shares at IPO; despite that, still rose 17% onfirst day

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    The worlds largest IPO ever

    Fast Facts:

    IPO at US$0.39rose to US$0.45

    Hang Seng Indexsurged 1.1%

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    Top Banks - 2006

    Source: Wikipedia

    Trivia: Which of these banks are not results of mergers?

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    Top Banks - 2008

    14

    Source: http://financialranks.com/?p=69

    http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/

    http://financialranks.com/?p=69http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://jaggerkieth.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/10-world%E2%80%99s-largest-banks-in-2008/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://skorcareer.com.my/blog/10-worlds-largest-banks-list-in-2008/2008/06/18/http://financialranks.com/?p=69
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    Stock Mechanics

    Follow-on Offering

    Issuance of stock subsequent to IPO

    Dilutive: New shares are created, more shares therefore valueper share is reduced (why do it?)

    Non-dilutive: Sale of shares by directors or insiders

    Primary Offering Issuance of stocks by company

    Secondary Offering Offer of stock by shareholder

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    Stock Mechanics: Splits and Options

    Stock splits 1:5 split = each share becomes 5 shares, value of each share is divided by 5 To make share accessible to investors, prevent fall in liquidity

    Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway is the most expensive stock in the US;BH has policy not to split stock; if GE hadnt split its stock 9 times since IPOin 1892, it would now be about $160,000 per share

    Warrants Gives right to purchase company stocks at a strike price on a specified future

    date When warrant is exercised, the company issues new shares of stock (call

    options differ in this respect) Often added to bond issue for enticement

    Employee stock options Call option that is issued to employee, usually executives, so as to align their

    motivations with the companys Strike price typically set at the companys stock price on option grant day

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    Backdating Scandal

    Why the concern?

    Who are the victims?

    Source:http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2006/08/71533

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    Pixar options backdating scandal

    18Source: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/29/ann_mather_sec_filing_backdating/Date: 29th April 2008

    http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/29/ann_mather_sec_filing_backdating/http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/29/ann_mather_sec_filing_backdating/
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    Stock Mechanics: Buyback andDividends

    When company has too much money and has noplan on investing it, it can Buy back shares

    Equal access scheme: company offers to buy back shares pro-rata

    Selective buy-back: offers to buy back only from several

    shareholders Any other reason for share buy-back?

    Issue dividends Frequency: can be regular/announced or irregular/special

    Forms of payment: Cash, stock, property Dates: Declaration, Ex-dividend, Record, Payment

    Dividend play: someone buys stock to collect dividendsmartmove?

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    Ex-Dividend Date Price Behaviour

    Price falls on ex-dividend date

    By how much?

    Time

    Ex-Dividend Date

    Stock price level before

    Stock price level after

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    Taxes

    Fast Facts

    Capital Gains Tax:Tax levied on profit upon sales of capital assetSingapore: 0%USA: Long-term capital gains tax 15%

    France: 27%

    Dividends Tax:Singapore 0%

    USA: 15% for most individual taxpayers

    Arguments against:Double Taxation (this and income tax)

    Arguments for:Different tax rates for income through active or inactive work

    Source: Wikipedia

    For more detailed info:

    www.oecd.org

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    In 1997, the Brazilian government imposed 0.38%tax on all financial transactions to raise revenue

    Institutional traders then traded Brazilian stocks asAmerican depository receipts (ADRs) in New York toavoid the tax (owners have right to exchange ADRs

    for shares they are issued by banks)

    Tax raised less revenue than expected and liquidityin Sao Paulo Bovespa dropped (trading volume from1.2b reais a day in 1997 to 350m reais a day in2001)

    In Sept 2001, the Brazilian government announcedthat stock transactions would be tax-exempt

    Snippet: Unintended Consequences

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    Stocks Dynamics: M&A

    Mergers and Acquisitions

    Combine to add value/Empire

    building

    Consensual merger/acquisitionor hostile takeover

    Poison pill White knight

    Cash merger/Stockmerger/Acquire assets

    Leveraged Buyout (LBO)

    Company X

    Hostile acquirer

    Friendly acquirer

    Source: https://reader009.{domain}/reader009/html5/0512/5af71b2332017/5af71b30d3601.jpg

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    Poison Pill and White Knight

    Poison Pill

    - Target company makes itsown stock less attractive tothe acquirer in order to avoid

    takeover bids.

    - e.g:

    allows the existingshareholders (exceptbidding company) to buymore shares at a discount.

    White knight

    - A target company is facing ahostile takeover fromanother party.

    - The white knight offers thetarget firm a way out with afriendly takeover.

    24

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    Mittal Steel Company

    Mittal Steel Company largest steel companyin the world by volume

    Source: Wikipedia

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    Arcelor Mittal

    White knight

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    Arcelor Mittal

    Started off hostile

    White knight

    Poison pill

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    Arcelor Mittal

    Source: Asia Times Online, Jan 27, 2006

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    Merger (risk) Arbitrage

    Cash merger Acquirer announces to purchase stocks of target company

    Stock price rises in anticipation of the sale but not to the purchaseprice level due to risk that deal may not go through or may bedelayed

    Arbitrageur may buy shares hoping that she may sell the shares atthe higher purchase price after the merger

    Stock merger Acquirer announces to exchange stocks of the target for its own

    stocks at a certain ratio

    Arbitrageur may go long in one and short in the other in the hopethe profit may be reaped upon completion of the M&A

    What can affect the deal from going through?

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    Minority Shareholders Rights

    A shareholder who owns asubstantial amount of shareshas a lot of say in the direction

    of the company

    Shareholder activism usesequity stake to put pressure on

    management during AGMs Change financing structure, cut

    cost, more environmentallyfriendly

    Fund management companies

    may adopt activism approach

    In Singapore: SecuritiesInvestors Association(Singapore) or SIAS

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    Carl Icahn - owns 4.98 percent ofYahoo common stock

    May 13, 2008 - Icahn launched a proxycontest.

    May 15, 2008 Icahn confirmed tocommerce a proxy fight to remove

    Yahoo's Board of Directors in responseto their "irrational" actions in rejectingMicrosoft's takeover bid.

    July 21, 2008 Icahn agreed to joinYahoo's Board of Directors in a deal thatwould end the proxy fight. According to

    Minority Shareholders Rights

    the agreement, the Yahoo Board willexpand by two directors to elevenmembers. Eight directors will stand forre-election while the remaining three

    seats will include Icahn and twonominees that Icahn will recommend.

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    Gain control of company through acquiring equity via the use ofdebt

    Asset of acquired company used as collateral for debt Also known as bootstrap transactions Debt is obtained by issuing junk bonds Some notable names:

    Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (KKR) Creates limited partnerships to acquire corporations Finance some with own funds, the rest through the issuance of

    junk bonds Investment banks, such as Drexel Burnham Lambert, led by junk

    bond king Michael Milken, helped raised funds for LBO

    At one point in 2007, BT reports that many firms in Asia were indanger of being taken over not because they were operatingbadly, but because they were low in debt!

    Leveraged Buyout

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    Credit Ratings

    Junk

    Investment Grade

    For details:http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/ap/page.article/2,1,1,4,1148442391999.html

    How does rating affectstock price of company?

    What criteria are applied?Who pays for the rating?

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/aphttp://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/ap
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    Sovereign Ratings

    Source: www.fitchratings.com/shared/sovereign_ratings_history.pdf

    Guess the ratings of the major financial

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    Guess the ratings of the major financialinstitutions in Singapore

    DBS

    UOB

    OCBC

    Temasek Holdings

    GIC

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    Problems with Ratings companies

    Little problem when ratingcompanies for straightforwarddebt issuance

    Problematic when ratingcomplex instruments

    Raters from the ratingcompanies were not paiddirectly by the debt issuing

    companies no conflict ofinterestBut raters of complexinstruments sometimes werepaid conflict of interest

    Ratings companies can roil themarketTheir pronouncements areimportantBut they are after all humansand are prone to errors injudgement

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    Ideas about Stock Prices

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    Price of stock and value of company

    Price of stock is what you read in the papers or off Bloomberg

    Value of company is a more subjective concept

    What affects ones valuation of a company? Management how it funds itself, the investment the company

    makes

    The business it is doing and the business environment the riskand opportunities

    The economy at large

    How do most in the market guess the price of the stock? Work out personal valuation of company Guess prevailing perception of companys value Fundamental analysis Technical Analysis

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    Views of Stock Prices

    Forecasters View

    Fundamental Analysis: company fundamentals,macroeconomic factors, politics, etc.

    Technical Analysis: patterns in price historysuggests future movements

    Result: (Strong) Buy/Sell recommendation

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    Views of Stock Prices

    Economists View

    Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): stock prices has

    already factored in information*, so no point trying touse that sort of information in trying to beat the market

    Information:

    Financial data Weak form

    All publicly available information Semi-strong form

    All information Strong form

    Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM):

    ))(()( fmimfi RRERRE +=

    Security Market Linebeta

    Asset return

    Companys stock return

    Markets stock return

    Risk-free rate

    Sensitivity to market returns

    Risk premium

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    Views of Stock Prices

    QF view Stock prices evolve stochastically

    No point trying to guess with precision future pricemoves

    Instead, the tools of statistics and probability can

    be used to say something definitive/on averageabout prices

    Discrete model: prices evolve per unit of time,

    each move is either up or down with probability p Continuous model: prices evolve by the

    Geometric Brownian Motion

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    The Binomial Tree Model

    1

    2

    4

    1

    1/4

    1/2

    Day 2Day 1

    $X

    $2X $0.5X

    Toss a coin!

    Day i

    Day i+1

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    Continuous limit

    Let dt -> 0

    What do we see?

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    Random Walk 5 steps

    97.5

    98

    98.5

    99

    99.5

    100

    100.5

    101

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

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    Random Walk 100 steps

    99.5

    100

    100.5

    101

    101.5

    102

    102.5

    103

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

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    Random Walk 1000 steps

    97

    98

    99

    100

    101

    102

    103

    0 2 4 6 8 10 12

    Th R d W lk M d l

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    The Random Walk Model

    $X

    $(X+2)

    Day i

    Day i+1

    $X

    2

    The normal distribution

    Th B i M ti

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    The Brownian Motion

    As dt -> 0, the motionobtained is called theBrownian motion or Wienerprocess

    The limit is said to be

    continuous

    Commonly denoted or

    It is the basic building blockfor continuous price modelsin finance

    tZ

    dt

    tW

    S

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    Some basic continuous models

    Source: Options, Futures and other Derivative, John C. Hull

    G t i B i M ti

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    Geometric Brownian Motion

    Two quantities declared as definitivecharacteristic of stock price

    Mean drift (measures company growth) Volatility (measures degree of price

    fluctuation/riskiness of company)

    Geometric Brownian Motion de facto model ofstock price in finance

    tSdlnRoughly, but not quite:

    t

    t

    t dWdtS

    dS +=

    N t diffi lt thi k

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    Not as difficult as you think

    Step 1: Discretize

    Step 2: Excel

    ZdtdtWWdtS

    SS

    idtdtiidt

    idtdti

    +=+=

    +

    +

    )( )1()1(

    Ideas about Models

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    Ideas about Models

    Models have underlying assumptions

    Stochastic models such as the Geometric BrownianMotion are not meant for forecasting; they are usedbecause they are mathematically tractable and they

    come with parameters that we can empiricallyassociate with intuitive/observable financialquantities (drift = growth, vol = riskiness); they givean average sense of the future evolution of prices

    Stochastic models (GBM, Levy models, etc.) areused to price and hedge financial derivatives

    Your preference?

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    Fundamental analysts Look at fundamental reasons/stories things

    happening in the world

    Technical analysts Look at patterns in price histories

    Financial engineers Believe in statistics, use statistical models to

    describe price movements

    Which style do you prefer?

    Your preference?

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    Stock Exchanges

    Stock Markets

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    Stock markets are concentrated at stockexchanges

    Oldest stock exchange: Amsterdam StockExchange Established 1602 by Dutch East India Company

    Merged with Brussels Stock Exchange and ParisStock Exchange on Sept 22, 2000 to form

    Euronext

    Traditional open outcry system

    These days electronic exchanges

    Stock Markets

    Stock Exchanges: Development

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    Stock Exchanges: Development

    Stock Exchanges: Development

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    Stock Exchanges: Development

    Stock Exchanges: Development

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    Stock Exchanges: Development

    Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5039412.stm

    Stock Exchanges: Development

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    Stock Exchanges: Development

    How does an exchange make money?

    Stock Exchanges: as a business

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    Stock Exchanges: as a business

    Source: http://www.marinemoney.com/forums/SIN04/Presentations/Ein.pdf

    Stock Exchanges: as a business

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    Stock Exchanges: as a business

    http://info.sgx.com/SGXWeb_ST.nsf/NEWDOCNAME/REITS_INTRO?OpenDocument

    Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated

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    Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated

    Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated

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    Stock Exchanges: Highly regulated

    Excerpt from "Regulating The Capital Markets: Making Market Discipline WorkSpeech by Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Deputy Managing Director, MAS, at the Investment Fund Awards 2001Source: http://www.mas.gov.sg/news_room/statements/2001/Regulating_The_Capital_Markets__Making_Market_Discipline_Work__16_Feb_2001.html

    Trading rules

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    Trading rules

    SGX Rulebooks and ManualsSource: http://info.sgx.com/SGXWeb_RMR.nsf/NEWDOCNAME/Rulebooks_and_Manuals

    Trading rules

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    Trading rules

    SGX Trading RulesSource: http://info.sgx.com/SGXRuleb.nsf/VwCPForm_SGX_ST_RULES?OpenView

    Damping down the activity

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    a p g do t e act ty

    Extreme volatility in the market can be prelude tocrashes

    Regulatory responses to extreme volatility Trading halts: trading is stopped when prices have moved

    or will imminently move by some specified amount

    Price limits: all trade prices are required to be within acertain range on a given day

    Transaction taxes: restrict trading by taxing it

    Margin requirements and position limits: restrict sizes ofpositions that traders can accumulate

    Collars: restrict access to trading systems

    Uptick rule: short selling is only permitted following a trade

    which is an uptick

    Trading Halt

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    g

    Following 1987 market crash, U.S. stock and futures exchanges adopted a setof coordinated trading halt rules

    Level 1 halt Condition: DJIA drops by about more than 10% from its closing value on the previous

    day Before 2:30pm: halt for an hour Between 2:30pm and 3:30pm: halt for half and hour After 3:30pm: if there is no Level 2 halt, then no halt

    Level 2 halt Condition: DJIA drops by more than 20% from its value on the previous day Before 1pm: halt for 2 hours Between 1pm and 2pm: halt for 1 hour After 2pm: if there is no Level 3 halt, then no halt

    Level 3 halt Condition: DJIA drops by more than 30% from its value on the previous day Halt for the whole day

    Why halt?

    Operational Structure

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    p

    Dealers/BrokersOrder-driven

    Clearing Agent

    SettlementCustodians/Depositories

    Investor

    T+3

    Brazilian Straddle

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    Straddle is a trading position in two different types of instruments, one long, oneshort, risk-offsetting

    Technically bankrupt traders do not have sufficient wealth to settle their trades;

    if prices do not change in their favour, they will soon be forced into actualbankruptcy

    When traders are in technical bankruptcy, they lose nothing by massivelyincreasing their positions

    If prices change in their favour, their financial woes are over If not, those who guarantee their trades will suffer the losses

    This strategy is called Brazilian straddle: large market position vs one-way airticket to Brazil

    Clearing members check on these monitor traders who clear through them closely require frequent position report throughout the day, require margin payments to be made when prices move against their customers prohibit customers who cannot settle from trading

    contractually allocate profits made by technically bankrupt customers to clearing firm ifproblem not reported

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    Quotes and Orders

    Stock QuotesBid/Ask Whos buying/selling?

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    71Source: The Business Times, May 4, 2007

    Orders

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    The specifications of an order Price

    Number of shares Order type

    Market

    Limit Stop

    Market-if-touched

    Validity/expiration instructions

    Quantity instructions

    Other instructions Display instructions

    Market and Limit Orders

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    Market order is an instruction to trade at thebest price currently available on the market

    Market orders pay the bid-ask spread (price forbeing impatient)

    Limit order: Limit price

    Instruction to trade at the limit price or a price

    better than this If its a limit buy order at $5, youre guaranteed to

    buy at that price

    Limit buy/sell is usually set lower/higher thanmarket

    Limit Order Book

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    Best prices

    Source: Trading & Exchanges Market Microstructure for Practitioners, Larry Harris

    Validity/Expiry, Quantity and DisplayInstructions

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    Examples of validity/expiry instructions Day orders: valid for trading day only

    Good-till-cancel: valid till trader expressly cancels

    Good-until: valid till a certain date Immediate-or-cancel

    Good-after: valid after a certain date

    Examples of quantity instructions All-or-none

    Minimum-or-none

    Display instructions To show no more than some maximum quantity to avoid market

    moving away from them

    Limit orders are options

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    When trader issues a limit order, he is in effectwriting an option gives the other traders the optionto trade with him Limit buy order: like put option (because expecting price to

    fall)

    Limit sell order: like call option (because expecting price to

    rise)

    Factors affecting value of this option Limit price: too far behind market, little value

    How long order will stand: allow other traders to defertrading decision

    Price volatility: in volatile market, limit orders are valuable,because probability of execution is increased

    Option view explains some phenomena

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    Bid/ask spreads are wide in volatile market option valuable, traders dont like to give away valuable options,

    set the limit price far from the market to reduce value of optionthey give away

    Fast traders have advantage over slow traders they quickly take up the valuable options

    The nature of liquidity Liquidity is the ability to trade at low cost Traders give away options (limit orders), they offer liquidity, in

    return, they are compensated with the potential to realize a better

    trading price

    Why do markets consolidate (traders like to trade in the sameplace)? They offer lots of options as a whole

    Other order types

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    Stop order Stop price Stop buy/sell order price usually set higher/lower than

    market

    Market-if-touched order Touch price If market price becomes equal or better than touch price,

    the market-if-touched order becomes a market order

    Stop orders and Liquidity

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    Stop orders accelerate price changes

    Say a trader has a large stop sell order at $100if best bid falls

    below $100its activatedtrader then contributes to thefalling market by trying to sell the stock

    Stop orders add momentum to the market

    Momentum traders Buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling May issue stop orders to brokers Destabilize prices

    Contrarian traders Buy when prices are falling and sell when prices are rising May issue limit orders to brokers Stabilize prices

    Reflect on this

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    So is the dynamics/stochastics of stock pricesakin to the toss of a coin?

    Hmm..what should I bid next?Twice the current bid or half of it?Lets see what the coin says

    The Trader Thinker

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    Indices

    Indices

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    A market index represents the health of the marketas a whole

    An index may be Price-weighted: proportional to the sum of prices of the

    index components E.g. DJIA, Nikkei 225

    Value (capitalization) -weighted: proportional to the sum ofmarket capitalization (price x number) of index components E.g. S&P 500

    What is STI?

    Indices are often used as performance benchmarksby mutual funds beat the market

    Indices

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    Some major indices US: S&P 500, Russell 2000, Wilshire 5000 UK: FTSE 100

    Brazil: Ibovespa Japan: Nikkei 225, Topix HK: Hang Seng Index Singapore: STI South Korea: KOSPI China: SSE Composite Asia: S&P Asia 50 Latin America: S&P Latin America 40 Europe: S&P Europe 350, FTSE Euro 100

    Seehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_indices#Asia

    The science of indexing

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    Ideas about Indices

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    Index gives an average view of the market but average can havemany dimensions Market capitalization Price Growth

    Index represents market return and volatility

    Index represents diversification Investing in an index?

    Index as an asset?

    Option on S&P 500: right to buy 500 stocks?

    Many funds use index as a gauge of performance

    Hedge funds are also called absolute value funds they dont useindex as gauge of performance

    Index instruments:Options on Indices

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    86Source: http://www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/workbench/products/sp500.htm

    Index strategies: Index Fund

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    87 Source: https://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsSnapshot?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT

    Index Tracking not bad!

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    88 Source: https://flagship.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/FundsPriceHistory?FundId=0040&FundIntExt=INT

    How did they do it?

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    One possible way

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    0 or 1

    Units oftock i

    Total number of stocks

    Limit the number of shares of each stock

    Upper bound on transaction cost

    Value of tracking portfolio

    Source: An evolutionary heuristic for the index tracking problem, J.E. Beasley, N. Meade, T.-J. Chang

    One possible way

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    Tracking error

    Excess return

    Index return

    Tracking portfolio return

    Objective function

    Source: An evolutionary heuristic for the index tracking problem, J.E. Beasley, N. Meade, T.-J. Chang

    What assumptions underliethese techniques?

    Buy an index?

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    Questions:

    Why does UBS want to buyAIGs commodity index?

    What determines the success

    of an index?

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    Section 2: Currencies

    Trading Money

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    Money is traded due to demand and supply forces

    Whats the worth of money? Whats its function?

    What demand forces? What supply forces?

    A medium of exchange

    Buying a good for S$100 (on the flip side: selling S$100!) How to buy a foreign good?

    One of the earliest currencies: Greek coins

    Basic human innovation: better than barter!

    What have been used as money?

    Sheep, shells, whale teeth, tobacco, nails, oxen, fish-hooks,jewels, elephant tails, wampum

    Greek silver coin, face of Athena, c.480B.C.(Source: Economic History of the World)

    Trading Money

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    A unit of account

    Measure value of goods relative to a currency: price tags

    A finance jargon meaning the same: numeraire

    A store of value

    Companies hold ready cash for daily transactions What affects currencies worth as store of value?

    Banana money zero worth now

    Germany is known for conservative monetary policy and

    aversion to inflation historical root? (fear of hyperinflation)

    Hyperinflation

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    German hyperinflation (c. 1923)

    1923-issue 50 million mark banknote. Worth approximately $1 US when printed,this sum would have been worth approximately $12 million nine years earlier.The note was practically worthless a few weeks later due to continued inflation

    Inflation 192324: a woman feeds her tiled stove with money.At the time, burning money was less expensive than buying firewood.Source: Wikipedia

    In a hyperinflation, the value of money relative to goods reduce rapidly

    Currencies

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    Governments print paper money, mint coins Careful about it as it can cause inflation

    Money is commonly accepted by fiat

    An avenue of national pride

    How many currencies are there around the world? There are slightly more than 200 currencies around the world

    Some countries do not have their own currencies, e.g. Ecuador, Panama, East Timor

    Useful link: https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

    Trivia: What is the currency of Luxembourg, South Africa, Botswana

    First President of SingaporeYusof bin Ishak

    Singpaores National Coat of Arms

    Major Currencies

    https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/
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    The United States Dollar (USD)

    The Euro (EUR)

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) The Great Britain Pound (GBP) (aka Sterling)

    The Swiss Franc (CHF)

    ISO 4217 Currency Code Usually first 2 letters refer to country, third letter refers to

    currency name

    What is CHF? Whats the ISO code for Canadian Dollar?

    What about Mexican Peso?

    Foreign Exchange turnover

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    99Source: BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey

    The Foreign Exchange Market

    H d il f b USD

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    Has an average daily turnover of about USD2 trillion (daily turnover at NYSE before

    merger with Euronext was about USD 40-50billion)

    Worlds largest financial market Some participants relatively larger than others

    But all small in the grand scale of things

    Largely unregulated OTC market Central banks monitor currencies together with

    interest rates (monetary policies)

    The Foreign Exchange Market

    K i

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    Key instruments

    Spot

    Forwards Swaps

    Derivatives: futures, options, exotic options

    FX k t i l t 24 7

    The Foreign Exchange Market

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    FX market is close to 24-7

    Opens in Wellington, New Zealand, on their Monday at 7am

    Closes on Friday evening in the US

    Used to be traded via telephone or telex; now e-trades, online

    Quotes and information readily available(www.forexnews.com, www.dailyfx.com,www.fxstreet.com ), market very liquid

    Spot Quotes

    http://www.forexnews.com/http://www.dailyfx.com/http://www.fxstreet.com/http://www.fxstreet.com/http://www.dailyfx.com/http://www.forexnews.com/
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    103 Source: Bloomberg.com

    USDCAD

    EUR|USD

    Currency pair: USDEUR or USD|EUR

    Spot Quotes

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    Currency pair: USDEUR or USD|EUR Read Dollar Euro

    USD is base currency, EUR is quote currency

    First currency thought of as asset, e.g. EURUSD 1.3583means that 1 Euro is worth USD 1.3582

    Its a price: price of 1 USD in terms of EUR

    European/indirect terms: USD|EUR

    American/direct terms: EUR|USD

    Nicknames: GBP|USD = Cable; AUD|USD = Aussie; NZD|USD = Kiwi

    Spot Quotes

    USD|CHF 1 2162

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    USD|CHF 1.2162

    Market lingo

    I buy dollar yen! A five-pip decline in EUR|USD

    Euro-Dollar is trading at one-twenty-eight the

    figure USD|JPY rises one big figure from 111.00

    2 pips: smallest quoted unit100 pips make 1 big figure

    Triangular arbitrage

    USD|EUR 1 3583

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    USD|EUR 1.3583

    EUR|Yen 162.894

    Yen|USD 0.0083

    Do you smell anything fishy?

    USD|EUR 0 7362

    Triangular arbitrage

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    USD|EUR 0.7362

    EUR|Yen 162.894

    Yen|USD 0.0083

    Still fishy?

    Tim Weithers, author of Foreign Exchange APractical Guide to the FX Markets, mentioned

    someone in class asking UBSs FX spot dealers ifthey had ever done traingular arbitrageyes, I did,once, back in 1977

    Marketmakers

    Whos quoting?

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    Marketmakers stand ready to buy if client wishes to sell and vice

    versa Found in banks, brokerages (e.g. www.forex.com)

    Earn through bid-ask spread (buy low sellhigh) Measure of how liquid the market is (how easy it

    is to buy and sell) Measure of profit marketmaker makes

    Quote with bid/ask: EUR|AUD 1.7686|90

    The handle

    What drives exchange rates?

    Who determines exchange

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    grates? Nobody Floating exchange

    rate era (read history of foreign

    exchange)

    Equilibrium considerations Purchasing Power Parity

    exchange rates are determinedby relative prices of similarbaskets of goods, e.g. Big Maccosts S$3 in Singapore andUS$2 in the US, so theexchange rate by PPP ought to

    be USD|SIN 1.50 The Economists Big Mac

    Index is a widely cited indicatorof PPP

    Theoretical conception: Equilibrium considerations

    What drives exchange rates?

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    p q Interest rate parity: because one can exchange currencies and

    deposit at the corresponding interest rate, exchange rates andinterest rates satisfy a no-arbitrage relationship

    Macroeconomic factors

    US current account deficits

    About US$800b, 7% US GDP spends more than earns Daily international funding is on the order of US$8b

    Looming fear that it will trigger a large and rapid decline in USD

    Japans almost zero interest rate encouraged the yen-carrytrade

    Monetary policies, country economics, political stability,

    happenings in other asset classes, etc.

    Snapshot: Thai baht

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    Snapshot: Argentine peso

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    Section 3: Fixed Income Rates

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    Section 3: Fixed Income Rates

    Fixed Income - Overview

    Investment that gives regular return

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    Institution raises funds with it, incurring debt

    2 main market Money market (< 1yr) Capital market (longer term)

    Instruments Notes and Bonds

    Corporate Government, municipal

    Floating rate note (FRN)

    Swaps Credit-linked products Asset-backed securities (ABS) Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO)

    Money market instruments: Commercial Paper (CP), Certificate ofDeposit (CD), Bankers Acceptance (BA), T-Bills, Fed Funds,Eurodollar deposits, Repo, money market mutual funds

    Interest Rate Fundamentals

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    Interest Rate Fundamentals

    Basic Concepts in Fixed Income

    Discounting and Compounding

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    Discounting and Compounding

    Present Value (PV)

    Discounting Factor (f)

    Rate (r)

    N days

    Whats the Present Value?

    Today

    $K

    Discounting: PV = K x fCompounding: K = PV / ff = 1/(1+r x DAYCOUNTFRAC)Compounding Number

    Basic Concept in Fixed Income

    Rates are stated annualized

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    Day count convention

    Simple vs continuous

    Interest rates are usually stated annualized

    Annualized rates

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    y

    In other words, it describes the amount ofinterest earned in 1 year

    If $100 is deposited at 5% for 6 months, whatsthe interest at maturity?

    Interest = x 5% x $100 = $25

    Day count convention

    Slightly more generally, what is the interest earned on

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    9

    $100 at 5% if the term is from Jan 10, 2007 till 3 Mar,2007?

    The interest earned is $100 x FRAC x 5%, where

    FRAC is a fraction that depends on the particular day-count convention that is adopted

    Some common day count conventions: Actual/Actual,Actual/365, Actual/360

    Day count convention

    Actual/Actual:

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    0

    2007 has 365 days (not leap year)

    Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days

    FRAC = 52/365 Interest = $100 x 52/365 x 5% = $0.7123

    Actual/365

    Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days FRAC = 52/365

    Interest = $0.7123

    Actual/360 Between Jan 10 and Mar 3, there are 52 days

    FRAC = 52/360

    Interest = $0.7222

    Day count convention

    Most common is Actual/360 and is used by USD and

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    1

    EUR

    What is FRAC for Actual/360 when the term is 1 year?

    Other conventions abound: 30/360: each month is treated as having 30 days

    ACT/252: common is South American instruments; 252 is thenumber of business days in a year

    Day count convention

    $100 is deposited from Jan 4, 2007 to Jun 8, 2007

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    Day count convention: Actual/360

    Quoted interest rate: 7%

    What do you get on Jun 8, 2007?

    Compounding

    What is the interest earned on $100 at 5% if the termi f J 1 2007 till J l 1 2009?

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    3

    is from Jan 1, 2007 till Jul 1, 2009?

    For such a long period, the deposits interest is earnedby compounding

    Suppose the compounding frequency is semi-annual

    If day count convention is not taken into account:

    Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2009

    6m 6m 6m 6m

    100 100x1.025 100x1.0252 100x1.0253 100x1.0253

    =107.6891

    Compounding

    If day count convention, say Actual/360, is taken intot th t l di i d t b

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    account, the actual compounding periods must bedetermined: e.g. Jul 1, 2007; Jan 1, 2008; Jul 1, 2008;Jan 1, 2009 in addition to the start and maturity

    Jan 1, 2007 Jul 1, 2007: 181 days

    Jul 1, 2007 Jan 1, 2008: 184 days

    Jan 1, 2008 Jul 1, 2008: 182 days

    Jul 1, 2008 Jan 1, 2009: 184 days

    Jan 1, 2009 Jul 1, 2009: 181 days

    Payoff at maturity =100(1+181/360x5%)(1+184/360x5%)(1+182/360x5%)

    x (1+184/360x5%)(1+181/360x5%) = 113.3249

    Interest rate: r

    General form:Disregarding day count convention

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    Principal: N

    Compounding frequency: n times a year

    Term: m years

    The payoff at maturity is: Nx(1+r/n)m/n

    General form:With day count convention

    If d i i k i h

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    If day count convention is taken into account, the

    actual dates in the compounding periods must benoted

    Say: t0, t1, , tk

    The payoff at maturity is:

    N(1+FRAC(t0, t1)r) (1+FRAC(t1, t2)r)(1+FRAC(tk-1, tk )r)

    If rate = 5%, compounding frequency is quarterly, whatis the equivalent annual rate?

    Equivalent annual rate

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    is the equivalent annual rate?

    The interest earned in 1 year (on $1 principal)= (1+1/4 * 5%)4 1 = 0.050945

    The equivalent annual rate is 5.0945%

    If compounding frequency is n times a year, what doyou think is the equivalent annual rate when n is verylarge?

    The exponential function

    Observe:

    (1 1/10 * 5%)10 1 051140

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    (1+1/10 * 5%)10 = 1.051140

    (1+1/100 * 5%)100 = 1.051258

    (1+1/1000 * 5%)1000 = 1.051270

    (1+1/10000 * 5%)10000 = 1.051271

    In fact, exp(0.05) = 1.051271

    Generally,

    Leonhard Euler (1707-1783) on CHF 10

    If rate = 5% is continuous, what is the interest on $100deposit after 1 year?

    Interest with continuous rate

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    deposit after 1 year?

    Payoff after 1 year = 100e0.05 = 105.1271

    Interest = 5.1271

    What is the payoff after 2.55 years?

    Payoff after 2.55 years = 100e2.55x0.05 = 113.5985

    Generally, rate = r, term = T years, principal = N

    => Payoff = NerT

    Principal = 1

    Term = 1 year

    Difference between rates

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    0

    Term = 1 year

    Rate = r

    Payoff if rate is continuous: er

    Payoff if rate is simple: 1+r

    Payoff if compounding frequency is quarterly: (1+r/4)4

    Binomial expansion: (1+r/4)4 = 1+r+6(r/4)2+

    Taylor series expansion: er = 1+r+r2/2+r3/6+

    The payoffs are roughly equal provided r is small

    Equivalent rates

    You own Bank Smiley and you want to pay an interestof $5 for a 1-year deposit on $100

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    1

    of $5 for a 1 year deposit on $100

    What is the simple rate (equivalent annual rate)?

    100x(1+rsimple) = 105 => rsimple = 105/100 1 = 5%

    What is the continuous rate?100exp(rcont) = 105 => rcont = ln(105/100) = 4.879016%

    What is the rate if compounding frequency is quarterly?

    100(1+r4/4)4=105=>r4= ((105/100)1/4-1)x4 = 4.908894%

    Snap!

    1) What rate of interest with continuous compoundingis equivalent to 15% per annum with monthly

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    2

    is equivalent to 15% per annum with monthlycompounding?

    2) A deposit account pays 12% per annum withcontinuous compounding, but interest is actually paidquarterly. How much interest will be paid each quarteron a $10,000 deposit?

    In Practice

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    Notional Notional/Face Value

    C F

    Bonds terminology

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    Coupon Frequency

    Maturity Accrued interest Cash/dirty price // Quoted/clean price

    Dirty Price = Clean Price + Accrued Interest

    Discount (Coupon) Rate

    (Reference) Floating, Fixed Payment in fine (reset date and coupon date coincide)/in arrear

    (reset at beginning of coupon period)

    Day-count convention Yield: a single number that describes the quality of the instrument Currency Issuer/Credit rating

    10-yr US Treasury Note

    Settlement date:

    1/18/2005

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    Current (trade) date:

    1/17/2005 Maturity:

    11/15/2014

    Coupon rate: 4.25%

    Coupon frequency: S/A Face value: 1,000,000

    Quoted price:

    100+10/32+1/64 =100.328125 per 100 face

    Day count convention:act/act

    11/15/2004-1/18/2005:

    64 days

    UST convention: -10 means 10/32; + means 1/64Bloomberg convention: M = 1,000

    Cashflows in a Bond (fixed rate)

    F l

    Day count conventionAccrued interest belongs to seller

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    Face value+ coupon

    Coupon= 4.25% x N/365 x Face

    Interest accruesat 4.25% for this period;

    Payment at end of period: in-arrear

    MaturityIssue date

    Coupon frequency: SA

    Settlementdate

    Tradedate

    Accrued interest belongs to seller

    Clean price: discount these cashflows to settlement date; nearest coupon only remaining fraction taken

    Cash/Dirty vs Quoted/Clean Prices

    A

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    Dirty price = Clean price (buyer receives full coupon A, no accruedInterest for seller)

    6m 6m

    tdy

    Dirty price = Clean price + accrued interest (part of A belongs toseller as he has been holding on to the bond for the first 3m of the

    coupon period)

    3m 6m

    tdy A

    3m

    T-bill

    Bid > Ask ?! Free-lunch!?

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    Bid price

    =100 2.57= 97.43per hundred face

    Ask price= 100-2.56= 97.44per hundred face

    Length of investment bills, notes, bonds

    Want to invest in fixed income? Thinkabout it

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    Fixed or floating coupon Bonds: coupon rate is fixed, matures in a (moderately) long

    time FRNs: floating rate version of bonds

    Interest rate environment (the spot curve) changesover time serves as prices of fixed incomeinstruments and as expectations of future ratemovements

    Which strategy do you choose buy-and-hold-till-maturity or opportunistic trading

    Many rates

    LIBOR

    EURIBOR Spot rate

    Forward rate

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    SIBOR

    Fed Funds rate

    Prime rate

    Overnight rate

    Swap rate

    Constant maturity swaprate (CMS)

    Overnight indexed swaprate (OIS)

    Par rate

    The above areequivalent to each other

    Short rate,instantaneous forwardrates, market rates

    One of the most widely watched/referenced rates CMEs Eurodollar futures (most heavily traded short-term interest rate

    futures contract) are based on USD LIBOR3m

    LIBOR and LIBOR Fixing

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    London Interbank Offered Rate

    Interest rate at which a bank is willing to lend funds to another bank(inter-bank market)

    Terms: overnight, 1w, 2w, 1-12m

    How is it produced? BBA maintains a panel of 8 contributor banks Top and bottom quartile are disregarded Middle two quartiles are averaged Announced shortly after 11am each day

    Usage of LIBOR rates is via simple compounding with ACT/360

    convention: e.g. x (1 + L x ACT/360)

    Spot rate

    A spot rate of N years is the rate at which interestaccrues if cash were deposited for N years from today

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    The graph of the function t |-> r(t), where t is time tomaturity and r(t) is the corresponding spot rate, iscalled the spot (rate) curve

    Curve under normal conditions looks like this:

    t

    r

    Whats your mood, Mr Banker?

    r

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    t

    t

    r

    Source: http://www.ces.ncsu.edu/AboutCES/smp/19/smhap.gif

    Fundamentals of Finance - 1

    The Fundamental Strategy of Finance:

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    Buy Low, Sell High

    t

    r

    Low High

    How to capture the discrepancy and realize it as profit?

    Borrow short (term), lend long (term)

    The Business of Commercial Banking

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    Short term rate r 1 + 1 year Long term rate R 2 years

    Liability: [(1+r)-1] = r in first year, r + r(1+r) =r2 + 2r in the second year

    Revenue: (1+R)2 1 = 2R + R2 in the secondyear

    The interest rate environment extended view

    Very low now: Bernanke at the helm in new financial territory

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    Greenspan Put

    (lower rates to stimulate economy afterDot Com bust

    Volker stepping on the brakes

    to stop inflation, which begansince 1973 oil price shocks

    Ideas about the spot curve (termstructure)

    Expectations Theory Long-term interest rates reflect expectation of future short-

    term interest rates

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    Market Segmentation Theory Rate of a term indicate demand and supply for borrowing

    and lending for that term

    Liquidity Preference Theory Investors like to deposit short-term for liquidity reasons Borrowers like to borrow long-term to lock in rates

    Banks will need to finance long-term loans with short-termdeposits; any change in short-term environment willadversely affect the financing => excessive interest rate risk

    Banks therefore raise long-term rates to reduce demand forlong-term borrowings relative to short-term depositions

    What affects rates?

    Government monetary policies

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    US FOMC announcement of rate hike/rise Holds 8 regularly scheduled meetings each year

    Date of each meeting is confirmed at the meeting

    preceding it

    Happenings in other markets

    Stock/commodity market red-hot indicative ofinflation pressure

    Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

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    9 Source: http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm

    Take a look!

    Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

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    0

    Fed Dec 16, 2008 Monetary PolicyPress Release

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    This is

    unconventional

    Fed Funds Rate Target vs Effective

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    2Source: http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight/todays_market/recent_commentary/unconventional_0_to_25_range.html

    What now?

    Nominal interest rate near zero economists call this (near) liquiditytrap

    That means: people would rather hold on to money than to spend it (or

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    p p y p (make short term investments rather than long term investments)

    Major central banks use interest rates as tool to stimulate economy (orcool it down)

    With rates near 0, and economy needs lots of stimulation HOW?

    Various views Helicopter Money - give money directly to businesses, which is what the

    2008 $700B US Govt Bailout Plan is supposed to do

    Deficit Spending spend on infrastructural projects in recession and underdeficit conditions to stimulate economy (the view is that short-term policiesshould weigh over long-term policies to get out of the present crisisinKeynes words In the long run, were all dead)

    Snap!

    1) LIBID vs LIBOR

    Guess what is LIBID

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    Which is higher?

    2) Why are US Treasury rates significantly

    lower than other rates that are close to risk-free?

    Modelling Interest Rates

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    What do you think?

    In the long run, whats the differencebetween the price of a stock (assuming the

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    company thrives and does not go bankrupt)and an interest rate, such as the USDLIBOR3m rate?

    Mean Reversion

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    7Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull

    The Vasicek Model

    Vasiceks model is

    dzdtrbadr += )(mean reversion speed

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    dzdtrbadr +)(

    r = r(t) short rate Wiener process

    volatility

    reversion level

    Vasicek Model is tractable

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    9Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull

    Term Structure according to theVasicek Model

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    0Source: Options, Futures and other Derivatives, John C. Hull

    What is short rate?

    Suppose short rate is r(t) (0

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    Then discount factor is

    Roughly, the interest earned between the

    period (t, t+dt) is r(t)dt on $1

    If short rate is stochastic, and if the (stochastic)

    payoff of an instrument (that pays at time T) isfT , then the instrument is worth today at

    e 0

    T

    dttr

    feE

    T

    0)( (taken wrt risk neutral measure)

    Theres only 1 stock price

    Interest rate modelling is more difficultthan stock price modelling

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    Theres a whole term structure of interestrates!

    Correlation exists between rates: e.g. 1-yearspot rate is correlated with 2-year spot rate

    Why is the Vasicek Model simplistic from thisperspective?

    Section 4: Others

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    UNDERLYING assets/REFERENCEindices, relative to?

    Financial derivatives are financial instruments that stipulatecashflows in the future whose sizes depend on the prices ofcertain underlying assets or the magnitudes of certain referenceindices

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    Vanilla European option

    Call option : Payoff Max(ST K, 0) at maturity T

    Put option : Payoff Max(K - ST, 0) at maturity T

    Inverse Floater

    A note that pays coupons periodically (e.g. semi-annually) of acertain percentage of a notional amount

    What certain percentage? Max(0, 8% - LIBOR3m) xDayCountFraction

    Inflation index

    Index used is Consumer Price Index

    Inflation derivatives

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    Inflation cap

    Inflation swap

    Inflation swaption

    Inflation bond

    Inflation cap payoff:

    Temperature

    HDD: Heating degree days CDD: Cooling degree days

    A = average of highest and lowest temperature during

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    the day at a specified weather station A days HDD := max(0,65-A)

    A days CDD := max(0,A-65)

    Example of a weather derivative: Call option on cumulative HDD during February 2005

    Strike price 700 Rate of $10,000 per degree day

    If cumulative HDD = 820, payoff = (820-700) x 10,000 =1,200,000

    Temperature

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    7 Source: http://www.fenews.com/fen51/one_time_articles/weather-derivatives/weather-derivatives.html

    Temperature

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    8 Source: http://www.fenews.com/fen51/one_time_articles/weather-derivatives/weather-derivatives.html

    Volatility

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    Source: CBOEs website

    Volatility

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    0

    Source: CBOEs website

    Hmm

    Property derivatives are making inroads intothe mainstream finance world they arebased on property indices

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    Interesting thoughthow do writers of exotic

    derivatives on indices hedge their risks?

    Section 5: Epilogue

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    Financial derivatives are contracts that refer to anunderlying asset or a reference index or rate

    S f h j l hi h h

    The Points

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    Some of the major asset classes which havecommonly served as underlying assets for derivativesare the equities, currencies and commodities. From

    the fixed income world, interest rates are often used inderivative contracts as reference rates.

    The significance of being an underlying of a derivativeis that the derivative attempts to alter the risk profile ofthe underlying asset.

    Prices from different asset classes and different rates are drivenby a complicated web of factors. This results in qualitativelydifferent price and return histories. This is important as onefundamental piece of the theory of derivatives pricing is the

    th ti ll d d l f th d l i i / t / t

    The Points

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    mathematically assumed model of the underlying price/rate/returnstochastics.

    The Geometric Brownian Model is the de facto model of returns

    stochastics in finance, even though it is far from being accurate.Financial engineers have improved the modelling by adoptingmore complicated models of price/rate/return stochastics.

    This lecture describes the complexities that make up each assetclass to highlight the simple-minded nature of the mathematicalmodels.

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