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Agent-based Simulation to examine Diplomatic, Information, military, and Economic (DImE)
elements of national power to support
CDR Gregg MartinJ-9 Experimentation Support Dept.Constructive Simulations USJFCOM
Presentation to Col Garza USMC 10 February 2005
Joint Experimentation and Effects Based Operations
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Purpose
Explain fundamentals of SEAS.
Outline
• SEAS outputs from SV04• Building Agents• The Agents view • Representing the synthetic world• Relationships between PMESII and DIME• User Interface
• 30 slides –45 mins
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synthetic environments for analysis & simulation SEAS Output - World Activity
Terrorist Supporters, Terrorist Density, Terrorist Incidents,
Ethnic Unrest, Demonstrations
Pinpoints likely opponent activity and areas of interest
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SEAS Output - Regional Rights
UPDATE
Key metrics:
Grey = Not measured
Green = Yes
Amber = Transition
Red = No
N = Neutral
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SEAS Output - RONA Effects
The level of achievementof each effect is displayed
for the past 10 days
E001A – Undermining Indonesian Government
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About SEAS
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It all starts with an Agent
• An agent possesses– Feeling and emotions (Psychology)
• Normal
• Aroused
– Behaviors (Sociology)• Initiate
• Search
• Evaluate
• Decide
• Execute
• Update
• Communicate
• Terminate
– Actions• Do Nothing
• Find a job
• Flee
• Join demonstration/riot
• Etc..
Intelligence
Savings
Group
I
D
X
S
E
U
C
T
Financial
Life
Food
Water
Person
Environ.
Shelter
Electronic
Do NothingSecurity
Basic
Communication
Exposure
Rumor
True
Infected
Immune
Well Being
Communicate
Carrier
E
Health
Liberty
Safety
Environment
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Types of Synthetic Agents
• There are 2 types of agents – Individual Agents
• Population Agents - Citizen Agents• Leader Agents – Religious, Social and Terrorist Agents
– Group Agents• Organizational Agents - Religious, Social and Terrorist
Organizations• Institutional agents - National Level Executive, Legislature and
Judicial Institutions, Economic, Military, Social, Information, National and Regional Infrastructure
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Synthetic Agents - Population Agents
• 1:X000 Granularity optimizes runtime
• Overall dynamic of decisions and well being
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Synthetic Agents- Leader Agents
• Extension of citizen agents with additional traits, goals, behaviors and actions
• 1:1 Granularity
• Each decision or action can potentially have great effect on the system
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Synthetic Agents- Organization Agents
• 1:1 Granularity• N relationships with leaders and N
relationships with citizens• Organization agents realize organizational
structure composed of citizens and leaders• Organization agents simulate the behavior of
organization as a whole by sensing traits of members and overlaying group decision making
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Synthetic Agents- Institution Agents
• Several Government Institutions combined into one to simulate government decision making in a country
• Institution agents subsume organizational structure and role of leaders
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SEAS Features: 2006Individual Organization Institution
Agent Civilian Leader Social Group
Organization
Government Institution
Political Political Leader
Political Org Political Institution
Inter-GovInstituti
on
Military Terrorist
Terrorist Leader
Soldier
Terrorist Org
Military InstitutionEconomy Bonyads
Multi National Corporations
Sectors, Regional and Global Macro Economics, Central Banks, IMF, World Bank, WTO
Society Religious Leader Religious Org, NGOs, charitable orgsBonyads
Social and Religious Institutions
Information Media -- print, broadcast, internet (blog)
News wires
Infrastructure
Consumption model Multi National Corporations
Infrastructure
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Traits
• Traits capture the characteristics of an agent. E.g.:– Demographics (ethnicity,
gender)
– Behavioral (aggressiveness)
– Physiological (height, immunity to certain virus)
• Traits realize diversity in agent populations
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Citizen Traits
• Demographic Traits– Age– Gender– Education– Ethnicity– Religion– Income– Stances– Expectations
• Cultural Traits– Nationalism Level– Religious Fundamentalism
Level– Emotion Level– Blue Arousal Level– Government Arousal Level– Ethnic Religious Arousal
Level– Organization Affiliation– Extremism Level
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Organization Traits
• Stances– Political Orientation
– Economic Policy
– Western Investment
– Closed Society
– Religious Orientation
– Societal Orientation
– Freedom of Opinion
• Other– Control Over Resources
– Type
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Liberal View
Cultural ViewCross Cultural
View
Social Network
Realist ViewKeynsian View
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Theoretical Pluralism
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Theoretical Pluralism: Integration of Disciplines
• International Relations
•(Neo)Realism
•(Neo)Liberalism
• Macro Economics
•Psychology
•Transgressive Behavior
•Aggressive behavior
•Social norms and conformity
•Computational Neuro-Science
•Economics
•Prospect Theory
•Social Psychology
•Relative Deprivation
•Sociology
•Resource Mobilization
•Political Science
•Contagion Model of Terrorism
•Integration Theory
•Democracy and peace
Social Relations(Organizations)
State(Institutions
)
Individual Behavior(Citizens)
Many more not included here..Many more not included here..
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Agent within a Synthetic Environment
AGENT
ENVIRONMENT
IntelligenceEmotions
Social Group/Organization
BehaviorMobilitySensors Goals
DemographicsTraitsSusceptibility
Intelligence
SavingsGroup
I
D
X
S
E
U
C
T
FinancialLife
FoodWater
PersonEnviron.
Shelter
PrintElectronic
Do NothingSecurity
Basic
Communication
Exposure
RumorTrue
InfectedImmune
Well Being
Communicate
Carrier
I
S
E
D
X
C
U
nitiate
earch
valuate
ecide
E ecute
ommunicate
erminate
Behavior Primitives
T
pdate
HealthLibertySafety
Environment
Applicable Models
Agents can be:
Individuals
Organizations
Institutions
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Citizen Agent Development
Income Class
Fundamentalism
Arousal Level
Valence Level
Well-Being
DNA• Blue Sympathizer• Neutral• Terrorist Sympathizer• Passive Terrorist Supporter• Active Terrorist Supporter• Terrorist Recruit• Terrorist
Terrorist Progression Model
• Basic Needs• Security Needs• Financial Needs• Health Needs• Political Needs• Educational Needs• Freedom of Movement Needs• Religious Needs
Well-Being Model
Income Class
Fundamentalism
Arousal Level
Valence Level
Well-Being
DNA
Nationalism
Ethnicity
Religion
Organization Membership
Blue
Government
Ethnic/Religious
Media Affiliation
SEAS Unified Vision 2004 (SUV04) Sea Viking 2004 (SV04)
• Red Media Spin• Blue Media Spin
Media Perception Model
Terrorist Progression Model
Well-Being Model
• Join Organization• Leave Organization• Selective Benefits• Solidary Benefits• Purposive Benefits
Organization Member Model
• Subscription to Specific Media
Media Perception Model
Social Contagion Model
New Models
Up to 64 bytesUp to 32 bytes
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Citizen Agents – Looking Ahead
Future Models
Retain history of environment/events/ behaviors that affect current behaviors
Perceive environment and current individual state from agent attributes
Learn from outcomes of behavior
Agent Memory
Income Class
Fundamentalism
Arousal Level
Valence Level
Well-Being
DNA
Nationalism
Ethnicity
Religion
Organization Membership
Blue
Government
Ethnic/Religious
Media Affiliation
Terrorist Progression Model
Well-Being Model
Organization Member Model
Media Perception Model
Memory Model
Perception Model
Learning Model
Social Contagion Model
Insurgency Model
Social Group Formation
Uprising during time of social unrest
Formation of interest groups
New Models
Soldier Model
Will to Fignt Up to 128 bytes
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GovernmentGovernment
CitizenMake DecisionsMake Decisions
• Stay• Flee• Affiliation to Factions
D I M Eactions
OrganizationsOrganizations LeadersLeaders
APMESIIActions
PMESII Actions
Actions
Node
PMESII Actions
Red
Sp
in
Blu
e S
pin
New
swir
e
Red Spin
Blue Spin
Newswire
Red
Sp
in
Blu
e Sp
in
New
swire
Roads & Bridges
Communication Lines
Health Services
Security
Oil & Gas
Sea Ports
Financial
Public Utilities
Target Action at Specific Nodes
Node
Node Node
Node Node
NodeNode
NodeNode
Status/ Operational
Level
SEAS (agent-based DIME model) Overview
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Synthetic International System
……
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
World
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
Region
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
Country1
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
Province1
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
City1
International System
C1 Government
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
Province2
…
…P1 Governor
P2 Governor
C1 Mayor
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
CountryXAA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
ProvinceXAA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
CityX
CX Government PX Governor CX Mayor
Seamless integration of new areas of interest
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Synthetic Political System
Power
Balance of Power
Alliances
Treaties
Trade Agreements
Reciprocity
Inter-gov. Organizations
Culture & Religious Affinities
Territorial Disagreements
NGOs
Regional Pub. Opinion
Ethnicity
Basic Needs
Security Needs
Financial Needs
Health Needs
Political Needs
Education Needs
FOM Needs
Religion Needs
Nationalism
Political Orientation
Domestic Policy
Freedom of Opinion
Societal Orientation
Economic Policy
Religious Orientation
Nationalism
Fundamentalism
Ethnicity
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
Nationalism
Social Stability
Political Stability
Information
Pub Opinion
Pop Desires
Infrastructure
Military
Econ. Stability
External Threat
Citizens Leaders
President
Defense, Finance, Foreign Affairs
Political Parties
MPR
Social groups
Religious groups
Secessionist groups
Military
Militia
Terrorists
Pirates and Crime syndicate
GOI
APMESII Actions DIME
Legitimacy
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SV04 - Blue and Red Roles
AA
II
EE
PP
MM
SS II
BLUERED
OtherCountries
AA
II
EE
PP
MM
SS II
ROI
DIME
DIME DIME
APMESII
DIME
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SV04 - Stability Operations: Blue-Red Role Reversal
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
BLUERED
OtherCountries
AA
IIEE
PPMM
SS II
ROI
APMESII
DIME
DIME
DIME
DIME
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SEAS-- ONA/EBO – Action Planner
R
E
Observe the achievement level of each Effect over the past 10 days
Select Node to act upon to increase the achievement of an effect
Select one or more Actions to impose on the node to achieve this effect
Set the amount of Resources to utilize for this action over 10 day period
N
A
E
NA
ONA
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User Interface – Action Plan
Planner supports complex course of action construction
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In Summary ..• SEAS is agent based computational environment
that is:– Massively parallel architecture for distributed simulation,
gaming and experimentation– Theory based to model every aspect of PmESII and DImE– Unified “gene” like representation that enables integration
of multiple disciplines and paradigms– Enhanced multi-resolution in time and space– Layered approach for incremental development of models– Shared reality concept to federate/bridge/integrate legacy
simulations and databases
• Highly evolved, light weight visualization • Integrated tactical, operational, and strategic
simulation, gaming, and experimentation capability
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Questions
top related