ucsb economic forecast project the city of oxnard economic outlook bill watkins september 15, 2004
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UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectThe City of OxnardEconomic Outlook
Bill WatkinsSeptember 15, 2004
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOutline
• Oxnard
• Baby Boomers
• Building Oxnard
• Forecast
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Oxnard
• How is it doing?
• Compared to …
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
How is Oxnard doing?
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectSo Many Influences
• International Politics
• United States
• Los Angeles
• Other Ventura County communities
• Santa Barbara County
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectPopulationComparisonIndex (1991 = 100)
100.0
110.7
126.6
110.3
117.2
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Oxnard
Ventura County
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectUnemployment RateVentura County8.9% 9.0%
7.8%7.5%
7.1%6.6%
5.6%4.8% 4.5% 4.6%
5.4% 5.3%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Los Angeles County’sIs 6.8%
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area
38,276
45,530
50,572 49,003
54,204 55,07157,053
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmploymentComparisonIndex (1991 = 100)
100.0
136.2
124.6
146.0
145.2
150.7
123.6
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Oxnard Metro Area
Ventura County
UCSB Economic Forecast Project1-Year Employment Growth by IndustryOxnard Metro Area - 2003
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Goods
Non-Durable Goods
Trans., Comm. & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins. & Real Estate
Services
jobs
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectEmployment Distribution (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area - 2003
10,859
187
1,823
3,034
2,959
2,840
2,653
10,192
2,961
17,280
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Manufacturing
Non-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Comm., & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
Other Services
Other Services include:Repair-MaintenanceLaundryReligionCivicProfessional…….
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectSalary Comparison ($ per worker)Oxnard Metro Area - 2003
21,270
34,291
38,703
58,171
33,415
39,174
39,552
22,017
50,026
37,029
Agriculture
Mining
Construction
Durable Manufacturing
Non-Durable Manufacturing
Trans., Comm., & Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Finance, Ins.& Real Estate
Other Services
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“Let’s talk about agriculture for a
minute.”
Bill Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectRetail Sales 1-year Growth DistributionCity of Oxnard - 2003
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Apparel Stores
Building Materials
Automobiles
Eating and Drinking
Food Stores
Service Stations
General Merchandise
Household Products
Other Retail
percent
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHotel / Motel Room SalesOxnard City
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
1990:1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1
millions
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Oxnardand other
Ventura County cities
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Hispanic Proportion of PopulationCities in Ventura County
17.0%
69.4%
31.0%
17.7%
70.2%
44.2%
75.7%
18.4%14.7%
27.0%
CamarilloFillmore
MoorparkOjai
OxnardPort
Hueneme
SantaPaula
Simi Valley
ThousandOaks
VenturaCity
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Population GrowthCities in Ventura County
1.9%1.6%
-0.7%
4.1%
0.6%
1.5% 1.4%
0.4%
2.1%
1.5%
Cama-
rillo
Fill-
more
Port
Hueneme
Moor-
park
Ojai Oxnard Simi
Valley
Santa
Paula
Thousand
Oaks
Ventura
City
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Median AgeCities in Ventura County
39.4
30.2 31.4
42.5
29.4 30.6 30.2
35.338.1 37.2
Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard PortHueneme
SantaPaula
Simi Valley ThousandOaks
VenturaCity
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Nominal Median Home PricesCities in Ventura County
$407,545
$299,083$268,231
$411,854$442,500
$345,833$369,921
$297,292
$477,186
$388,088
Cama-
rillo
Fill-
more
Port
Hueneme
Moor-
park
Ojai Oxnard Simi
Valley
Santa
Paula
Thousand
Oaks
Ventura
City
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Median Household IncomeCities in Ventura County
$69,394
$52,539
$84,653
$49,089$52,744
$44,729 $45,976
$79,155$84,053
$58,114
Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard PortHueneme
SantaPaula
Simi Valley ThousandOaks
VenturaCity
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2004 Owner-Occupied HousingCities in Ventura County
73.2%
63.1%
81.7%
58.3% 57.1%
48.0%
57.0%
77.0% 75.0%
58.3%
Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard PortHueneme
SantaPaula
Simi Valley ThousandOaks
VenturaCity
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Gross Regional ProductMetro Regions in Ventura County
$4,764.2
$6,605.8
$4,605.9
$788.1
$6,261.4
$10,656.4
Cama-rillo
Oxnard SimiValley
SantaPaula
VenturaCity
ThousandOaks
millions
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real GRP per WorkerMetro Regions in Ventura County
Paula City
$134,605$118,108
$127,830
$101,042$113,850
$172,418
Camarillo Oxnard Simi Santa Ventura ThousandOaks
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Retail SalesCities in Ventura County
$511
$64 $48 $87 $63
$1,430
$842
$104
$1,708
$1,259
Cama-
rillo
Fill-
more
Port
Hueneme
Moor-
park
Ojai Oxnard Simi
Valley
Santa
Paula
Thousand
Oaks
Ventura
City
millions
UCSB Economic Forecast Project2003 Real Retail Sales Per CapitaCities in Ventura County
$8.4
$4.4
$2.2 $2.5
$7.9 $7.9$7.2
$3.6
$13.8
$12.1
Cama-rillo
Fill-more
PortHueneme
Moor-park
Ojai Oxnard SimiValley
SantaPaula
ThousandOaks
VenturaCity
thousands
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOxnard is Changing
• Agriculture
• Military
• Industry
• Commuters
• Demographics
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
An Introduction
to Baby Boomers
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“What a drag it is getting old.”
Mick Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“For the rest of history, there are unlikely ever
again to be more toddlers than grey
heads.”
The Economist Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Baby Boomers
• are starting to retire
• are going to inherit $3 to $5 trillion
• like coastal California
• are used to getting what they want
• will get what they want
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectInteresting Facts
• Longer life does not imply more years of ill health.
• The onset of old age is related to years remaining, not age.
• Early gains in life expectancy were a result of childhood issues.
• Recent gains have impacted the years after retirement.
• In 2003, over half of all Harley-Davidson buyers were over 45.
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJust the Numbers, Ma’am
• In 1963 there were 11 centenarians.
• In 2003 there were 2050 centenarians.
• By 2050 expect over a million centenarians.
• The first person to live to 150 years of age is probably already born.
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Things Baby Boomers Buy
• Sports cars and Harleys
• Travel and cruises
• Exercise machines and electronic stuff
• Beauty aids and cosmetic surgery
• Viagra and hormone-replacement pills
• Hip and knee replacements
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“Better to burn out than to fade
away.”
Neil Young Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Building Oxnard
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Median Home PriceCity of Oxnard
$167,000$148,000 $139,300 $149,000
$165,800$198,700
$233,900
$277,100
$345,800
$412,600
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“Look for Oxnard real estate prices to continue their
upward trend.”
Bill Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHousing AffordabilityVentura County
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectHousing DensityCity of Oxnard
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
people per household
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
92 94 96 98 00 02 04
387 367
253 227290
425348
448
1145
1032
473
785
1083
503
1146
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
MULTIPLE-FAMILY HOMES
Total New Residential Building PermitsCity of Oxnard
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNew Non-Res Bldg. Permit Value by TypeCity of Oxnard
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
$ millions
Industrial
Retail
Office
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Building Permit Value & GrowthCity of Oxnard
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
line: $ millions
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“What are we going to do about farm-worker housing?”
Bill Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectThe Forecast
– Outside Influences
– Macro Trends
– Short Term
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Outside Influences
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
The United States Economy
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Bill Says:
“Unless something goes seriously wrong, the national economy looks pretty good.”
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
How Bad is the California Economy?
Maybe not as bad as you think.
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectJob Growth Rates
Percent Change From Prior Year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
United States
California
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
California Issues
• Budget
• Energy
• Housing Costs
• Workers Compensation Insurance
• Health Insurance
• Tort Law
• High costs
• Onerous Regulation
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
What about the new Governor?
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectClint Eastwood Says:
“A man has got to know
his limitations.”
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
“California is unlikely to see per-capita economic growth
rates comparable to that of the United
States.”
Bill Says:
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Trends
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Remember the
Baby Boomers
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectDisplay (Retail) AdvertisingTri-Counties
100.0
122.1122.1131.0 128.1
115.0
102.4
75.1
93.1101.4
109.3 110.1102.7
91.8
68.2
93.8101.9
116.3
97.5
2002:01 2002:04 2002:07 2002:10 2003:01 2003:04 2003:07 2003:10 2004:01 2004:04 2004:07
Jan. 2002 = 100
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectLines of Help Wanted AdsTri-Counties
100.0
113.8
129.1 129.7
95.7
77.8
100.1107.7
112.4 111.2
88.5
67.9
102.2
113.2122.6
110.3
2002:01 2002:04 2002:07 2002:10 2003:01 2003:04 2003:07 2003:10 2004:01 2004:04 2004:07
Jan. 2002 = 100
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Trends
• Los Angeles County
• Santa Barbara County
• Other Ventura County communities
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
TheShort Run
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectVentura CountyOutput Share of Tri-Counties
54.8%55.9% 55.4%
56.5%
59.0%60.0%
61.2%61.4% 61.7%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Gross Regional Product GrowthOxnard Metro Area
6.2%
2.6%
11.8%
6.7%
-0.9%
13.2%
10.2%
13.2%
6.2%
8.1%
6.6%
3.8% 4.0%
6.0%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal GRP per Worker GrowthOxnard Metro Area
3.0%
-1.6%-2.0%-1.9%-3.0%
23.7%
4.1%
7.8%
0.8%
8.7%
4.3%2.2%1.8%1.8%
3.5%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectOxnard Metro AreaOutput Share of Ventura County
14.5%16.3% 16.6% 17.0%
15.9%16.7% 16.6% 16.9%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment (jobs)Oxnard Metro Area
38,276
45,530
50,572 49,003
54,204 55,07157,053
59,650
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectTotal Employment GrowthOxnard Metro Area
3.1%4.2%
14.1%
8.7%
2.1%
-8.5%
5.9%5.0%5.3%
-0.5%
2.2%1.6%2.0% 2.4%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Average SalaryOxnard Metro Area
$20,855 $21,487 $20,847
$27,269$29,422
$33,033$34,393
$36,791
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Average Salary GrowthOxnard Metro Area
-0.8%-1.7%
0.8%
-2.1%-4.1%
19.5%
6.1%4.0%
-1.9%
7.3%
-1.5%-0.7%
0.1%-0.3%
2.3%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectNominal Median Home PriceCity of Oxnard
$167,000$148,000 $139,300 $149,000
$165,800$198,700
$233,900
$277,100
$345,800
$412,600
$464,000
$506,900
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Median Home Price GrowthCity of Oxnard
-5.7%-6.5%-8.8%
-5.7%-3.3%
0.2%
3.5%
8.7%
16.0%13.9%
15.3%
21.6%
16.8%
9.9%
6.6%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast ProjectReal Retail Sales per Capita GrowthCity of Oxnard
-5.2%-4.2%
12.0%
1.8% 1.5%2.4%
8.4%
-7.3%
2.8% 2.7%
0.4%
2.3% 2.5%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Bill Says:
“Oxnard is still creating itself. It will
be a very different place in 10 years.”
UCSB Economic Forecast Project
Thank you.
Visit us at
www.ucsb-efp.com
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