trust - thomson reuters · thomson reuters proprietary news sentiment analysis aggregates and...
Post on 27-Jun-2020
4 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
TRUSTA THOMSON REUTERS FINANCIAL & RISK PROPRIETARY BENCHMARK OF TRUST IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETPLACE, Q3 2014
Q3 ‘13 Q4 ‘13 Q1 ‘14 Q2 ‘14 Q3 ‘14
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
Asia (13)Americas (19) Europe (18)Global (50) Regions based on domicile institutions in the Top 50 Global Financials
Trust in the Top 50 Global Financials Expressed Through News Sentiment
SOURCE: TRNA Sentiment Indicators
TRACKING TRUST THROUGH NEWS SENTIMENTThomson Reuters proprietary news sentiment analysis aggregates and scores business and financial news sources to track trust sentiment for our benchmark group of the top 50 global financial institutions. In Q3 2014, aggregate trust sentiment in the world’s largest financial institutions was stable from Q2 at 0.5 percent. The data reveals significant divergence at the regional level, however:
• The 13 institutions in Asia posted a considerable rise, with trust sentiment increasing to 6 percent from 1 percent in the prior quarter
• The 19 Americas institutions posted a trust score of 4 percent, down slightly from 5 percent in Q2
• The 18 Europe/UK financial institutions saw a further decline, to -8 percent from -5 percent in Q2
Our analysis shows that while earnings recovery headlines have accounted for some of the increased confidence in news sentiment in the sector throughout 2014, this quarter’s data was most strongly driven by negative headlines in Europe and the UK, among them Lloyds Cuts 500 Jobs; Dark Pool Probe Puts Pressure on Barclays and ongoing news coverage stemming from FX and Libor investigations.
TRUST SENTIMENT IN TOP FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN ASIA RISES IN Q3 THOMSON REUTERS TRUST INDEX; NEGATIVE NEWS SENDS EUROPEAN INSTITUTIONS LOWER
Created at the beginning of 2013 from an array of Thomson Reuters data, news and analytical capabilities, the Thomson Reuters TRust Index provides metrics for tracking the state of trust and confidence in the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions. This quarter’s findings follow.
TRUSTQ3 2014
TRustIndex@thomsonreuters.com
“ Our TRust Index recorded positive sentiment across the financial industry as a whole for the second consecutive quarter. The results were led by a steep rise for Asian financial institutions, due to positive economic news including cross-border investment in China, and supported by positive U.S. sentiment resulting from stronger earnings reported by U.S. banks. This deeply contrasted with European institutions, which continued to fall due to negative news primarily relating to benchmark probes. Given the disparity between analysts’ optimistic expectations and investors’ pessimistic outlooks for the sector, we will see how these conflicting messages impact the index next quarter.” David Craig – President of Financial & Risk, Thomson Reuters
COUNTERPARTIES: CREDIT SPREADS AS AN INDICATOR OF TRUSTCredit Default Spreads (CDS) provide another (implied) metric for trust. In our Datastream analysis, spreads illustrate the level of confidence institutions have in each other as reliable counterparties within the larger landscape of market conditions, macroeconomic environment, government and central bank policies and other external factors.
Credit Default Spreads (CDS) continue to be tight, as they have been throughout 2014. The average spread for the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions rose in Q3 to about 90 basis points from 86 bp in Q2, but remains far below 2011’s high of nearly 350.
• The Americas institutions ended Q3 with the widest spreads at 96.1 bp (v 81.5 bp in Q2), and Europe the narrowest at 83.9 bp
• The Asia institutions posted tightening rates over the quarter, to 93.1 bp from 97.6 bp
TRACKING CONTROVERSY AND GOVERNANCE AS FACTORS IN REBUILDING TRUSTOur ASSET4 environmental, social and governance (ESG) analyst André Chanavat says Q3 data shows, “the number of controversy events has been fairly stable since the last quarter – both for the Top 50 and the financial sector as a whole – although more than half of the Top 50 report some business ethics event.”
Percentage of Financials that Have Had Controversies
0%
30%
20%
10%
40%
50%
60%
Top 50 Financial Sector
BUSINESSETHICS
PRODUCT QUALITY
PRIVACY WAGES/WORKINGCONDITIONS
MARKETINGRESPONSIBILITY
ANTI-COMPETITION
SOURCE: ASSET4
Percentage of Companies with Processes in Place
0%
20%
40%
60%
100%
80%
MAINTAIN RESPONSIBLEMARKETING PRACTICES
IMPROVE FAIRCOMPETITION
AVOID BRIBERY ANDCORRUPTION PRACTICES
Top 50 Financial Sector
SOURCE: ASSET4
THE CONFIDENCE OF THE MARKETPLACE – INVESTORS AND ANALYSTSCommenting on earnings data, senior Research Analyst Sridharan Raman says, “at 10.4 percent, the financial sector growth rates have picked up after reporting a disappointing -6.6 percent in Q2. Excluding the huge fine for Bank of America, the expected growth rate for financials jumps to over 18 percent. As banks look ahead with majority of litigation and fines behind them, growth rates can be expected to remain in double digits for the following two quarters, a sign of strength.”
CONSUMER
DISCRETIONARY
UTILITIES
TECHNOLOGY
MATERIALS
FINANCIA
LS
HEALTHCARE
S&P 500
TELECOM
INDUSTRIA
LS
ENERGY
CONSUMER
STAPLES
S&P 500: Earnings Growth Estimates, Q3 2014
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
Q3/2014 Earnings Growth Estimates for Financials Less Bullish
SOURCE: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S
Our StarMine data below shows analysts now forecast forward 5-year EPS CAGR for the Top 50 Global Financials at 9.2 percent, above the 8.2 percent they forecast for the S&P 500 as a whole. According to Raman, “at a -2 percent market implied growth rate, the gap between the analysts’ expected growth rate and market assessment has now grown to 11.2 percent, as investors continue to discount these institutions. The markets continue to discount this group relative to analyst expectations, which forecast growth in the coming quarters and improved capitalization at the banks.”
Analyst Expectations/Q3
ANALYST FORECASTS
OF FORWARD 5-YEAR
EPS CAGR (STARMINE)
MARKET PRICES
IMPLIED FORWARD
5-YEAR EPS CAGR
(STARMINE)
PRICE CHANGE %
(PAST 90 DAYS)
CREDIT SMARTRATIOS
IMPLIED RATING
(STARMINE)
S&P 500 8.20% Q2: 8.60%
6.20% Q2: 4.20%
-1.40% Q2: 2.00%
BBB Q2: BBB-
TOP 50 GLOBAL
FINANCIALS9.20% Q2: 8.80%
-2.00% Q2: -1.80%
0.80% Q2: -0.10%
BBB+ Q2: BBB
THOMSON REUTERS
GLOBAL INDEX8.00% Q2: 8.00%
3.60% Q2: 0.60%
-2.40% Q2: 2.20%
SOURCE: StarMine Professional(BBB- and higher: investment grade)
A THOMSON REUTERS FINANCIAL & RISK PROPRIETARY BENCHMARK OF TRUST IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETPLACE, Q3 2014
Analyst Recommendation Changes/Q3
0
20
10
30
60
50
Percentage of companies that describe, claim to have, or mention processes in place
40
ASIAAMERICAS EUROPE
# of Upgrades # of Downgrades Q2 Results
Credit Default Spread (CDS) Trends for the Top Global Financials
50
0
100
150
200
250
300
350
JUN ‘13 SEP ‘13 DEC ‘13 MAR ‘14 SEP ‘14JUN ‘14
Asia (10 companies) Europe (17 companies)Americas (15 companies)Global
Weighted CDS (2013 Revenue)
SOURCE: Thomson Reuters Datastream
The third quarter saw more upgrades than downgrades (56:49) for the top 50 global financial institutions as a group, driven primarily by Europe (38:27). This confidence by analysts may signal that the markets are overly pessimistic about prospects in the region.
The ASSET4 data further shows that adoption of processes and governance to improve fair competition (52 percent) and avoid bribery and corruption (88 percent) continue to be priorities for the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions.
METHODOLOGYExcept where otherwise indicated, the data is for the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions based on market capitalization and for the period through Q3 2014. Regions are based on the domicile of institutions within the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions.
Trust sentiment scoring may range between -100% and 100%, with neutral sentiment at zero, and is derived/calculated from the daily average trust sentiment score for the Top 50 Global Financial Institutions to produce the 120-day moving average reported here.
THOMSON REUTERS DATA SOURCES• ASSET4 provides objective and transparent environmental, social and governance (ESG) information and analysis
tools to enable professional investors to benchmark, compare and integrate extra-financial information into their investment processes. Coverage – 4,700+ listed companies including the S&P 500, BOVESPA, FTSE 100, STOXX Europe 600, ASX 300, TSX, MSCI World Index and MSCI emerging markets companies. Database depth – 650+ data points and 250+ key performance indicators give you the most in-depth coverage in the industry.
• Datastream provides vast reserves of historical financial content, enabling research on the correlations and relationships between global economic indicators, and asset classes. Access up to 50 years of history, millions of global instruments and indicators and coverage for 175 countries in 60 global markets. Real-time market data seamlessly integrates streaming real-time market data, economic news, First Call® research reports and more in a single integrated application. Datastream simplifies the graphical exploration of trends and relationships between series and allows sophisticated analysis across a broad range of financial instruments.
• StarMine Quantitative Models are stock selection factors grounded in sound economic intuition and developed using best-of-breed modeling techniques. The models are robust across regions, sectors and market environments.
• Thomson Reuters Accelus suite provides market-leading solutions for global regulatory intelligence, financial crime, anti-bribery and corruption, enhanced due diligence, compliance management, internal audit, e-learning, risk management and board of director or disclosure services. The Thomson Reuters Governance, Risk & Compliance (GRC) business delivers a comprehensive suite of solutions designed to empower audit, risk and compliance professionals; business leaders; and the boards they serve to reliably achieve business objectives, address uncertainty and act with integrity.
• Thomson Reuters News Analytics (TRNA) is a powerful tool that allows users to analyze millions of public and premium sources of Internet content, tag and filter that content to focus on the most relevant sources and turn the mass of data into actionable analytics that can be used to support trading, investment and risk management decisions.
• Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S provides detailed and consensus estimates featuring up to 26 forecast measures, including GAAP and pro-forma EPS, revenue/sales, net income, pretax profit and operating profit, and price targets and recommendations for more than 60,000 companies in 67 countries worldwide.
• Thomson Reuters Business Classification (TRBC) is our global, comprehensive, industry classification schema. TRBC helps you identify, analyze and monitor companies and industries across global markets and is the ideal tool for benchmarking, peer comparison and navigation. TRBC Indices track 124 industries, 52 industry groups, 25 business sectors and 10 economic sectors on a global and/or regional basis.
We invite your questions, feedback and suggestions at TRustIndex@thomsonreuters.com.
REGULATION AS A BAROMETER OF TRUSTData drawn from our Governance, Risk & Compliance data and Thomson Reuters AccelusTM reveals that the pace of regulatory activity worldwide has continued unabated globally this quarter, and particularly in the Americas.
In the third quarter the average daily number of regulatory alerts was 140, down slightly from 143 in Q2 and above 100 for the fifth consecutive quarter. Total 2014 alerts now count more than 27,000 to date in 2014, surpassing 2013’s full-year total.
A THOMSON REUTERS FINANCIAL & RISK PROPRIETARY BENCHMARK OF TRUST IN THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETPLACE, Q3 2014
Total Regulatory Alerts Year–On–Year
2013
2012
26,898
18,761
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Asia Americas Europe/UK Global
Q42012, Q3 Q42013, Q1 2014, Q1Q3 Q3Q2 Q2
*NOTE: Tracked activity includes document changes, announcements and enforcementsby regulators. Q3 Average Daily Alerts = Total alerts to September 30, 2014 / 261 working days
140
Total Regulatory Alerts Year-On-YearTotal Regulatory Alerts Year–On–Year
2013
2012
26,898
18,761
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Asia Americas Europe/UK Global
Q42012, Q3 Q42013, Q1 2014, Q1Q3 Q3Q2 Q2
*NOTE: Tracked activity includes document changes, announcements and enforcementsby regulators. Q3 Average Daily Alerts = Total alerts to September 30, 2014 / 261 working days
140SOURCE: Thomson Reuters Accelus
Total Regulatory Alerts By Year Average Daily Alerts
© 2014 Thomson Reuters 1008361/10-14
top related