trendsurfing: catching the waves of the future

Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future

Lee Cowherd, SPHR

Where Were You in ’92?

Key Trend “Currents”

– Technology– Demographics– Culture/Global– Workplace– Industry– Profession

Technology Waves

Technology Waves

Convergence– Computers will disappear– Internet/Phone/Computer– Undermining old technology

Technology Waves

NetWorld– Where everybody knows

your name (and almost everything else!)

– Cloud computing– Internet of things

Demographic Waves

Demographic Waves

The Graying of America– US population 2010 = 300 million– US population 2020 = 325 million

8% increase

– US population 65+ 2010 = 40 million– US population 65+ 2020 = 54 million

35% increase

Demographic Waves

The Graying of America– Septuagenarian population

explosion– Squaring the age pyramid

Mexico 2010

Canada 2010

1980

2000

2010

2030

2050

Demographic Waves

A Nation of Immigrants– Asian and Hispanic

populations are projected to more than double by 2050

– Non-Hispanic White population is projected to decline 6%

Culture Waves

Culture Waves

Global vs. Tribal– Globalization of culture– Individuals seek identity in

“tribes” – social, cultural, ethnic, religious, virtual

Culture Waves

It Isn’t Easy Being Green– Peak oil– “Green Collar” jobs– Conspicuous frugality

Workplace Waves

Workplace Waves

Will you Boomers please retire?– Where have all the dollars

gone?– Social (In)-Security– The new old– Seniority squeeze

Workplace Waves

Workplace Yoga– How flexible can you be?– “Work is not a place you go,

it’s something you do.”– Millies & Boomers – There’s an app for that

Workplace Waves

Employees or contractors?– Want benefits with that?– Life in the projects– Me, Inc.

Riding the Waves

Riding the Waves

Identify certain or near-certain trends– Demography is Destiny– “You canna change the laws

of economics!”– You have to pay your bills

Riding the Waves

Hindsight is 20/20 (with the right lenses)– When were conditions

similar to today?– If they knew then what we

know now…– What’s different now?

Riding the Waves

Beware of linear projections– The future will be just like

today, only more of it.– Look for “trend-benders” and

“game-changers”

Riding the Waves

Ask “What if…”– …this trend continues?– …this potential event

occurs?– …this highly unlikely event

occurs?

Riding the Waves

Experiment with the future– If – and – and – then – so – But . . .

Riding the Waves

Preparation vs. Prediction– Packing your bags– Build “robust” strategies– Continually monitor trends

Resources• US Census Bureau

www.census.gov• US Dept. of Labor

www.dol.gov• Pew Research

pewresearch.org• Kentucky State Data Center

ksdc.louisville.edu• SHRM

www.shrm.org

• Workforce.comwww.workforce.com

• Harvard Business Reviewhbr.org

• Wired.comwww.wired.com

• UK iWinwww.uky.edu/Centers/iwin

• Newsmagazines• Newspapers• Blogs

Join the Conversation

http://trendsurferblog.com

Trendsurfing:Catching the Waves of the Future

Lee Cowherd, SPHR