trends and outlook for migration and remittances worldwide
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T d d O l k f Mi iTrends and Outlook for Migration and Remittances Worldwide
Dilip RathaThe World Bank
and Remittances Worldwide
The World Bank
The 4th ADBI-OECD-ILO Roundtable on Labour Migration in Asia:27 28 J 201427-28 January 2014, ADBI, Tokyo, Japan
The views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do notThe views expressed in this presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use Terminology used may notaccepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
Key messages
There is a need for increased labor migration due to income gaps and demographic pressuresg p g p p
Remittances to developing countries estimated to be $414 billion and to Asian developing countries $242 billion in 2013billion and to Asian developing countries $242 billion in 2013.
Migration costs remain a formidable barrier to people mobility.
Trends in migration
Globally, some 3% of world population (or 232 million) are international migrants.international migrants.
73 million people from Asian developing countries live outside their home countries in 2013their home countries in 2013.
More than half of them (44 million) live in developing countries.
Asian developing countries refer to ADB member countries. EAP refers to East Asia and Pacific as defined by World Bank and includes a smaller group of countries.
In the EAP region, intra-regional people mobility is increasingis increasing
35.0(Million)
25 0
30.0
(Million)
8%
20.0
25.0
33%6%
15.0 38%
6%
5.0
10.048%
46%0.0
2000 2013
Source: World Bank (2013), “Migration and Development Brief 21”, October.
EAP N America and W Europe Middle East Others
Stylized facts on migration in AsiaStylized facts on migration in Asia
Most migrants are unskilled.
The share of undocumented workers is large. g
The share of female migrants has been increasing, especially in Indonesia and the Philippinesespecially in Indonesia and the Philippines.
Migration offers opportunities.
Over a billion jobs will have to be created in theOver a billion jobs will have to be created in the coming decades, both at home and abroad
Projected Change in Labor Force, 2005–50 (millions), ages 15-64( ), g
Sub-Saharan Africa 699Middl E t & N Af i 187Middle-East & N. Africa 187East and South Asia 727
Western Europe -88North America -12North America 12Eastern Europe & Central Asia -26
Source: Koettl (2010); Shaping the Future : A Long-Term Perspective of People and Job Mobility for the Middle East and North Africa (World Bank 2008)
Demography – a key pull factor for future g p y y pmigration in Asia
Share of working age g gpopulation
Source: World Bank (forthcoming), International Migration and Development in the East Asia and Pacific Region.
Demography – a key pull factor for future g p y y pmigration in Asia
Share of population older than 64 yearsthan 64 years.
Source: World Bank (forthcoming), International Migration and Development in the East Asia and Pacific Region.
Japan: Rapid aging population
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division
Remittances to developing countries estimatedRemittances to developing countries estimated to be $414 billion in 2013
700
800FDI$ billion
500
600
300
400Remittances
Privatedebt &
100
200portfolio
equity
ODA
0
100
Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank
Remittances to Asian developing countriesRemittances to Asian developing countries estimated to be $242 billion in 2013
$ billion
400
450FDI
$ billion
250
300
350
Remittances
150
200
250
Private
50
100
150 debt & portfolio
equity
50
0
50ODA
Source: Development Prospects Group, World Bank
-50
Remittance flows to developing countries
$ billion 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f
D l i t i 414Developing countries 373 389 414 449 491 540East Asia and Pacific 106 107 115 126 139 154Europe and Central Asia 38 38 43 47 52 58Latin America and Caribbean 59 60 61 68 75 84Middle-East and North Africa 43 47 49 51 54 57South Asia 97 107 114 123 133 145South Asia 97 107 114 123 133 145Sub-Saharan Africa 30 30 32 35 38 41
Growth rateDeveloping countries 11.9% 4.3% 6.3% 8.6% 9.3% 9.9%
East Asia and Pacific 12.4% 1.0% 7.4% 9.5% 10.2% 10.5%Europe and Central Asia 17 6% 1 6% 10.8% 10 3% 11 2% 11 6%p 17.6% 1.6% 0 8% 10.3% 11.2% 11.6%
Latin America and Caribbean 6.1% 0.9% 2.5% 10.5% 11.1% 11.6%Middle-East and North Africa 6.3% 10.8% 3.6% 4.9% 5.4% 5.6%
South Asia 18 4% 9 7% 6 8% 7 7% 8 5% 9 4%South Asia 18.4% 9.7% 6.8% 7.7% 8.5% 9.4%Sub-Saharan Africa 4.5% -0.4% 6.2% 8.6% 9.2% 9.5%
Source: World Bank (2013), “Migration and Development Brief 21”, October.
Asian countries top remittances in 2013p
$ billion 2013e as % of GDP 2012$ billion, 2013e as % of GDP, 2012
7160
4860
3125 25 24
26 22 21 2015 15 11 9
25 25 24 21 21 21 2017
Source: World Bank (2013), “Migration and Development Brief 21”, October.
Remittance growth is picking up in all regionsEast Asia and Pacific Europe and Central AsiaGrowth, %Growth, %
18.0
p
Latin America and Caribbean Middle-East and North Africa
South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
G o t , %G o t , %
13.0
8.0
3.03.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank
-2.02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Remittance growth is picking up in all regions
East Asia and PacificGrowth %
18.0
East Asia and PacificGrowth, %
13.0
8 08.0
3.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Development Prospect Group, the World Bank-2.02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Double dip in remittance flows to Mexico but recoveringbut recovering
35%*year-to-year growth of 3-month moving average
25%
35%
15%
5%
-15%
-5%
-25%
15%
Jan 04 Sep 05 Apr 07 Dec 08 Aug 10 Apr 12 Nov 13
Source: Banxico
Jan-04 Sep-05 Apr-07 Dec-08 Aug-10 Apr-12 Nov-13
In the US employment is recovering faster forIn the US, employment is recovering faster for migrant workers than for natives*illi
24
123
125
millions
23119
121
123
Natives (left scale)
2211
117
119
113
115Migrants (right scale)
*3-month moving averages
21111Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
Source: Current Population Survey
A decoupling of housing starts in the US and remittance flows to Mexicoremittance flows to Mexico
Year-on-year growth (%)
20%
40%30%Housing starts (right scale)
0%
20%
10%
-20%-10%
60%
-40%
30%
Remittances to Mexico
-60%-30%
Jun-
06N
ov-0
6A
pr-0
7S
ep-0
7Fe
b-08
Jul-0
8D
ec-0
8M
ay-0
9O
ct-0
9M
ar-1
0A
ug-1
0Ja
n-11
Jun-
11N
ov-1
1A
pr-1
2S
ep-1
2Fe
b-13
Jul-1
3
3-month moving averages
Currency depreciation to encourage remittancesCurrency depreciation to encourage remittances to India
60
65
18 0
20.0
Remittances ($ bn,
55
60
16.0
18.0 left axis)
45
50
12 0
14.0 Rupee/$
40
45
10.0
12.0
358.0Q1
2007Q4
2007Q3
2008Q2
2009Q1
2010Q4
2010Q3
2011Q2
2012Q1
20132007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Internal Financial Statistics, IMF
After a decline during the crisis, remittance flows from Russia to Central Asian countries are recovering with increase in oil prices
9140
7
8
9
120
140
6
7
80
100
4
5
60
80
2
340
Avg oil (Brent/Dubai/WTI) $/B
0
1
0
20Russia outflows ($ billion, right axis)
Source: IMF Balance of Payments and Development Prospects Group, World Bank.
Jan-2004 May-2005 Oct-2006 Feb-2008 Jul-2009 Nov-2010 Apr-2012
Registered Syrian Refugees are increasingRegistered Syrian Refugees (thousands)
2,500Registered Syrian Refugees (thousands)
1 500
2,000
1,000
1,500
500
0Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14
Source: UNHCR based on available data from Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey
Remittance price is falling, but not as much in l l id h itt ilow volume corridors where remittance is more important
9%
10% Cost of sending $200
8%
9%Global simple
average
7%Global weighted
%
6%
gaverage
5%
Source: World Bank (2013), “An Analysis of Trends in the Average Total Cost of Migrant Remittance Services,” Remittance Prices Worldwide, December.
Remittance costs are still too highRemittance costs are still too high
Cost of sending $200 (%)
12.62013-Q4
8 3 8 68.3 8.67.8
7.0 6.6 6.3
Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank.
SSA EAP Global MENA LAC SA ECA
In EAP, remittance costs are high, especially in Australia and Japanespecially in Australia and Japan
$16.2
13 7
Cost of sending $200 (%) in 4Q2013
9 4
13.7
7.2 7.6
9.4
3.7
Singapore to Phili i
Australia to Phili i
Singapore to Chi
Japan to Chi
New Zeland to Fiji
Australia to FijiPhilippines Philippines China China Fiji Fiji
Source: Remittance Prices Worldwide, World Bank.
Are remittance costs rising?Are remittance costs rising?
Lifting feesg
Closing of MTO accounts by correspondent banks
Recruitment costs can be a drain on migrants’ income
Sending Average recruitment In months ofDestination/Occupation
Sending country
Average recruitment cost ($)
In months of wages
Domestic worker in Hong Kong Indonesia 2,708 5.4
Philippines 1 719 3 4Philippines 1,719 3.4
Construction worker inConstruction worker in Middle East Nepal 1,200 6.0
Bangladesh 2,891 14.5
Manufacturing worker in Korea Bangladesh 950 < 1in Korea Bangladesh 950 < 1Sources: ITUC, IMWU and HKCTU, June 2012; APL-HK and PLU, April 2013; Martin 2013, Human Rights Watch 2013, World Bank 2011 (Nepal report), Korea’s EPS. These data should be viewed as preliminary.
Challenges – to capitalize migration and remittance links for developmentremittance links for development.
RemittancesKnowledge and
Remittancesg
technology transfer
Philanthropy Trade
Investment & entrepreneurship
Tourismp p
Skills Values & advocacySkills y
The wealth of the diaspora can be mobilized through diaspora bonds
Diaspora size(millions)
Estimated savings($ billions, 2009)
Developing countries 161.5 397.5East Asia & Pacific 21.7 83.9Europe & Central Asia 43.0 72.9Latin America & Caribbean 30.2 116.0Middle East & North Africa 18 0 41 2Middle East & North Africa 18.0 41.2Sub-Saharan Africa 21.8 30.4South Asia 26.7 53.2
The World Bank has set up a Task Force on Diaspora Bonds
Source: Ratha and Mohapatra (2011).
The World Bank has set up a Task Force on Diaspora Bonds
Global Knowledge Partnership onGlobal Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD)
An open, inclusive, multidisciplinary knowledge partnershippartnership.
Aims to generate a menu of policy choices, based on analytical evidence and quality control through peer-review.
A global public good that is also a learning process.
Data
High-skilled labor
migration
Lower-skilled labor
migration Internal
migration
Migration and
security
Thematic
migration
IntegrationEnvironmental
h d Working Groups
Integration issues in host communities
change and migration
Policy and institution
Migrant rights and
social
Demography and
migration
Mobilizing other
diaspora resources
al coherence
social aspects
migration
Remittances
Thematic Working GroupsThematic Working Groups1. Data on migration and remittance flows 10.Mobilizing diaspora resources as
agents of social and economic change2. Skilled labor migration
3. Low-skilled labor migration
g g
11.Environmental change and migration
12 Internal migration and urbanization4. Integration issues in host communities
5. Policy and institutional coherence
12.Internal migration and urbanization
Cross-cutting themes:
6. Migration, security and development
7 Migrant rights and social aspects of
1. Gender
2. Monitoring and impact evaluation7. Migrant rights and social aspects of
migration
8. Demographic changes and migration
3. Capacity building
4. Public perceptions and communications
9. Remittances, including access to finance and capital markets
Highlights of TWG Work Programsg g g
1 Data: Handbook on Improving Data on Migration1. Data: Handbook on Improving Data on Migration and Development: A Practical Guide.
(B Hovy UN DESA; F Laczko IOM)(B. Hovy, UN DESA; F. Laczko, IOM)
2. Skilled labor migration: Emerging global patterns f kill d i tiof skilled migration.
(S. Angenendt, BMZ; C. Ozden, World Bank)
3. Low skilled labor migration: Database on recruitment costs; Assessment of implementation ; pof bilateral agreements
(M Abella; M Tomei ILO)(M. Abella; M. Tomei, ILO)
Highlights of TWG Work Programsg g g
4. Integration issues: Comparative case study of g p yeffects of integration in host country and re-integration in homeland.
(H. Duncan, Metropolis; G. Appave, IOM)
5 Policy coherence: Identification of coherence5. Policy coherence: Identification of coherence criteria & development typology/assessment tool.
(B. Godenzi, SDC; D. Khoudour, OECD; S. Rosengaertner, UNDP)
6. Security: Inventory of data on border security
(K. Koser, Geneva Centre for Security Policy;(K. Koser, Geneva Centre for Security Policy; M. Fowke, UNODC)
Highlights of TWG Work Programsg g g7. Migrant rights: Development of indicators
(W. Gois, MFA; R. Saab, UNICEF; P. Oberoi, OHCHR)
8. Demographic change: Impact of international migration on fertility and mortality in countries of origin and destination.
(R. Muenz; A. Pawliczko, UNFPA)( ; , )
8. Remittances: TA on remittance data according to new IMF BPM6; Regulations affecting remittancenew IMF BPM6; Regulations affecting remittance service providers.
(D Ratha; WB)(D. Ratha; WB)
Highlights of TWG Work Programs10.Diaspora Resources: Diaspora Profiles;
Assessment of diaspora programs.p p g
(K. Newland, MPI; S. Plaza, WB)
11 E i t l h I t f l11.Environmental change: Impacts of slower environmental change and planned relocation.
(S. Martin, Georgetown)
12.Internal migration: Drivers and effects of internal gmigration; Mechanisms to cope with migrants' vulnerability.
(C. Abrar; University of Dhaka; R. Vargas-Lundius; IFAD)Lundius; IFAD)
Partnerships p International and regional agencies
Universities and research institutions
Think tanks
International initiatives
NetworksNetworks
Civil society
Website: www.knomad.org
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