trend macrolytics, llc...2020/08/12 · donald luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com thomas...
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Copyright 2020 Trend Macrolytics LLC. All rights reserved. This document is not to be forwarded to individuals or organizations not
authorized by Trend Macrolytics LLC to receive it. For information purposes only; not to be deemed to be recommendations for buying
or selling specific securities or to constitute personalized investment advice. Derived from sources deemed to be reliable, but no
warranty is made as to accuracy.
Trend Macrolytics, LLC
Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer
Thomas Demas, Managing Director
Michael Warren, Energy Strategist
Data Insights: Covid-2019 Monitor Wednesday, August 12, 2020
The global scorecard
India + 60,963 Brazil + 1,274
Brazil + 52,160 US + 1,076
US + 46,813 Mexico + 926
Colombia + 12,830 India + 834
Argentina + 7,369 Colombia + 321
Mexico + 6,686 Peru + 225
Peru + 6,547 Iran + 184
Russia + 4,945 Argentina + 151
Iraq + 3,396 South_Africa + 130
Bangladesh + 2,996 Russia + 70
+ 204,705 + 5,191
World + 255,679 World + 6,103
Top ten 80% Top ten 85%
World
30.6 median population age
New cases New Deaths
The worst ten countries
26.770 bp of population infected
As of Aug 12
New confirmed cases
by continent
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
For more information contact us: Donald Luskin: 312 273 6766 don@trendmacro.com Thomas Demas: 704 552 3625 tdemas@trendmacro.com
2
The US scorecard National and state-by-state data do not line up because of different sources
New cases New Deaths New in hospital Cume cases Cume deaths Cume in hospital
FL FL CA NY NY
TX GA FL NJ FL
GA SC TX CA NJ
CA IN NY MA GA
AL VA GA TX AZ
SC OK IL FL VA
AZ OH AZ IL MD
TN TN NJ PA MA
OH AR NC MI AL
PA WI LA CT OH
All states All states All states All states All states
Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten Top ten
Fewer daily cases Fewer new deaths Fewer new hospitalizations Most recoveries
United States
NC + 11,876
TX + 8,479
MS + 7,445
SC + 3,039
IN + 2,281
MN -295 ND -2 KS -36
AR -262 MO -1 OR -25
-5 WA -57
AL -855 CT -3 MD -51
+ 573
+ 355
+ 329
+ 245
+ 1,214
+ 1,164
+ 1,095
+ 49
+ 45
+ 38
+ 233
+ 3,563
+ 122
+ 109
+ 50
+ 277
+ 220
+ 35
+ 35
+ 980
+ 12,500
+ 9,803
+ 5,831
+ 1,549
CA
TX
FL
GA
IL
Top ten
TN
All states
+ 38,771
+ 55,594
AZ
LA
OH
NC + 1,051
+ 1,001
38.1 median population age
157.842 bp of population infected
61% 66%
5,116,474 156,273
70%
+ 1,326
74%
Five most improved US states
MO -1,594 KS -7 AL -533
KS -1,092 UT
574,411 25,211
337,062
74%
The ten worst US states
+ 2,252
+ 2,715
83%
89,995
31,750
22,052
21,031
19,292
14,445
13,266
12,089
12,070
11,760
247,750
185,475 7,352
137,895 6,533
+ 135
+ 131
+ 125
+ 65
+ 61
542,792 15,890
500,620 10,468
198,248 8,685
188,737 7,866
422,003 8,751
222,588 8,710
133,125 4,444
3,105,894 103,910
Dail
y n
ew
cases a
nd d
eath
s
Source: States and test data Covid Tracking Project, US data ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
3
Recommended reading
A Report to Our Readers Almar Latour
Wall Street Journal August 11, 2020
Cruise Ship Owners Left Thousands of Workers Adrift
for Months Rebecca Smith, Jacquie McNish and Suryatapa
Bhattacharya
Wall Street Journal August 11, 2020
Retail Chains Abandon Manhattan: ‘It’s
Unsustainable’ Matthew Haag and Patrick McGeehan
New York Times August 11, 2020
Role of children in household transmission of COVID-
19 Jieun Kim at al.
Archives of Disease in Childhood August 11, 2020
Extreme poverty rises and a generation sees future
slip away Elias Meseret and Cara Anna
AP August 10, 2020
Fear first, education last? Paul Peterson and Scott Atlas
The Hill July 30, 2020
Meme of day
g
Source: Our beloved clients, and Power Line blog "The Week in Cartoons"
4
The coronavirus case accelerometer… tracking the world’s infection curves
Share of infected population from first day with 100 confirmed cases, log scale
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
5
The coronavirus mortality accelerometer … tracking the world’s fatality curves
Share of deceased population from day of first fatality
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
6
Our most reliable evidence of slowing exponential growth of Covid-2019 Vertical: number of days it takes to double deaths Horizontal: days from first death
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
7
Requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in new cases
14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
8
Alt requirement to Open Up America Again: 14-day “downward trajectory” in pos tests 14-day moving average, last 14 days Most recent value displayed ⚫ High ⚫ Low
◼ Downward trajectory ◼ Five best ◼ Upward trajectory ◼ Five worst
Source: Covid Tracking Project, TrendMacro calculations
9
Reality-checking the models: actuals versus IHME predictions
Source: ECDC, IHME, TrendMacro calculations
10
From Ground Zero to the Rio Grande
New York
US ex-New York
Texas172.65 bp of population infected
33.9 median population age
As of Aug 12
38.1 median population age
216.93 bp of population infected
38.2 median population age
154.09 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
11
The sun-belt hot-spot states (other than Texas)
California
Florida
Arizona259.30 bp of population infected
38.0 median population age
As of Aug 12
42.2 median population age
145.38 bp of population infected
36.7 median population age
252.72 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
12
Patient zero… and then everyone else
China
World ex-China
As of Aug 12
28.8 median population age
0.64 bp of population infected
37.4 median population age
32.65 bp of population infected
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
13
Impact in the largest economies
Japan
Germany
France
As of Aug 12
41.2 median population age
30.47 bp of population infected
45.9 median population age
47.3 median population age
4.01 bp of population infected
26.32 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
14
Impact in The Anglosphere
United Kingdom
Canada
Australia7.85 bp of population infected
37.9 median population age
As of Aug 12
46.93 bp of population infected
40.5 median population age
31.77 bp of population infected
40.8 median population age
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
15
Impact in continental Europe
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
As of Aug 12
42.2 median population age
43.08 bp of population infected
44.9 median population age
45.5 median population age
41.62 bp of population infected
69.59 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
16
Impact in other hot-spots
South Korea
Singapore
Sweden
40.9 median population age
82.12 bp of population infected
As of Aug 12
41.8 median population age
2.84 bp of population infected
97.05 bp of population infected
34.6 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
17
Impact in the BRICs ex-China
India
Russia
Brazil
33.5 median population age
148.43 bp of population infected
As of Aug 12
39.6 median population age
26.8 median population age
17.38 bp of population infected
6.21 bp of population infected
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
18
Impact in the Middle East and Africa
Israel
Iran
Africa (52 nations)
As of Aug 12
30.3 median population age
30.2 median population age
97.88 bp of population infected
37.84 bp of population infected
7.72 bp of population infected
19.7 median population age
Dail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
sD
ail
y new
case
s and d
eath
s
Source: ECDC, TrendMacro calculations
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