transportation priorities are changing: the context

Transportation Priorities are Changing: Transportation Priorities are Changing: The ContextThe Context

Transportation Priorities are Changing: Transportation Priorities are Changing: The ContextThe Context

Megaregions+Metroprosperity:Megaregions+Metroprosperity:

Sustainable Economics for the Sustainable Economics for the Texas TriangleTexas Triangle

Houston, TexasHouston, Texas

Sep. 24, 2009Sep. 24, 2009

Creating a 21st Century Vision for Transportation

• Reconnecting America Reconnecting America (co-chair) (co-chair)

• Smart Growth America Smart Growth America (co-chair) (co-chair)

• AARPAARP• Action! For Regional Action! For Regional

EquityEquity• America BikesAmerica Bikes• American Public Health American Public Health

Association (APHA)Association (APHA)• Apollo AllianceApollo Alliance• LOCUS: Responsible Real LOCUS: Responsible Real

Estate Developers and Estate Developers and InvestorsInvestors

• National Association of National Association of REALTORSREALTORS

• National Association of City National Association of City Transportation Officials Transportation Officials (NACTO)(NACTO)

• National Housing ConferenceNational Housing Conference• Natural Resources Defense Natural Resources Defense

CouncilCouncil• PolicyLinkPolicyLink• Surface Transportation Policy Surface Transportation Policy

Partnership (STPP)Partnership (STPP)• Transit for Livable Transit for Livable

Communities (TLC)Communities (TLC)• US PIRGUS PIRG

Executive CommitteeExecutive Committee

Historic Context: Historic Context: The era of suburbanizationThe era of suburbanization

Historic Context: Historic Context: The era of suburbanizationThe era of suburbanization

One era ends, One era ends,

another beginsanother begins

The Halcyon Days Before The Halcyon Days Before SuburbanizationSuburbanization

The Halcyon Days Before The Halcyon Days Before SuburbanizationSuburbanization

World War II: Austerity MeasuresWorld War II: Austerity MeasuresWorld War II: Austerity MeasuresWorld War II: Austerity Measures

Post War Prosperity: Post War Prosperity: Marketing the American DreamMarketing the American Dream

Post War Prosperity: Post War Prosperity: Marketing the American DreamMarketing the American Dream

Post War Prosperity: Post War Prosperity: Marketing the American DreamMarketing the American Dream

“Abundant sunshine, fresh air, fine green parkways will blend

together seamlessly with dazzling skyscrapers and seven-

lane highways.”

“We are pushing ahead with a great road program, a road program that will take this Nation out of its antiquated shackles of secondary roads… It will be a nation of great prosperity, but will be more than that:  it will be a nation that is going ahead every day… The expanding horizon is one that staggers the imagination.”

— October 29, 1954

“We are pushing ahead with a great road program, a road program that will take this Nation out of its antiquated shackles of secondary roads… It will be a nation of great prosperity, but will be more than that:  it will be a nation that is going ahead every day… The expanding horizon is one that staggers the imagination.”

— October 29, 1954

Source: FHWA

Intent: 40,000 miles in 20 years. Today: 47,000 miles-plus

Unstated motto: Unstated motto: Death to pedestrians …Death to pedestrians …

Unstated motto: Unstated motto: Death to pedestrians …Death to pedestrians …

The context for future The context for future growth and developmentgrowth and developmentThe context for future The context for future growth and developmentgrowth and development

Economic, Economic,

environmental, demographic and environmental, demographic and

cultural trendscultural trends

High priorities:High priorities:

69% - Dependency on oil69% - Dependency on oil68% - Health care costs68% - Health care costs64% - Education64% - Education62% - Jobs and the economy62% - Jobs and the economy56% - The war in Iraq56% - The war in Iraq56% - Public safety56% - Public safety45% - Global warming and climate change45% - Global warming and climate change

High priorities:High priorities:

69% - Dependency on oil69% - Dependency on oil68% - Health care costs68% - Health care costs64% - Education64% - Education62% - Jobs and the economy62% - Jobs and the economy56% - The war in Iraq56% - The war in Iraq56% - Public safety56% - Public safety45% - Global warming and climate change45% - Global warming and climate change

National Priorities: National Priorities: Concern over oil dependency sky highConcern over oil dependency sky high

Which of the following national issues do you consider a priority? After each one, please indicate if it is a low, medium, or high priority for the country? Are there any other national issues that were not mentioned that are high priority to you? If so, what is the issue?

Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive

• 93% agree - Our country needs to 93% agree - Our country needs to reduce our dependence on oil and find reduce our dependence on oil and find renewable sources of energyrenewable sources of energy

• 92% agree - Gas prices are likely to 92% agree - Gas prices are likely to rise higher and higher in the coming rise higher and higher in the coming yearsyears

Both personal and national security Both personal and national security at stake, Americans sayat stake, Americans say

Both personal and national security Both personal and national security at stake, Americans sayat stake, Americans say

Source: Dec. 2007 Nat’l Survey, Harris Interactive

Adding “fuel” to an existing trendAdding “fuel” to an existing trendAdding “fuel” to an existing trendAdding “fuel” to an existing trend

• “The housing boom encouraged the development of far-flung suburbs, contributing to longer commutes. Now developers are building more walkable neighborhoods close to city centers and public transit, and Americans are beginning to migrate back toward their workplaces, city planners and other experts say.”

Dropping vehicle miles travelled (VMT)Dropping vehicle miles travelled (VMT)Dropping vehicle miles travelled (VMT)Dropping vehicle miles travelled (VMT)

Estimated Miles Driven by RegionEstimated Miles Driven by Region(in millions)(in millions)

Region Region Sept. 2007 Sept. 2007 Sept. 2008 Sept. 2008 %Change%Change

Northeast Northeast 38,594 38,594 37,298 37,298 -3.4 -3.4South-Atlantic South-Atlantic 51, 091 51, 091 48,178 48,178 -5.7 -5.7North-Central North-Central 55,605 55,605 53,391 53,391 -4.0 -4.0South-Gulf South-Gulf 47,421 47,421 44,956 44,956 -5.2 -5.2West West 50,843 50,843 47,421 47,421 -3.6 -3.6Total Total 243,555 243,555 232,847 232,847 -4.4 -4.4

Surging transit ridership, Surging transit ridership, despite cheaper gasdespite cheaper gas

Surging transit ridership, Surging transit ridership, despite cheaper gasdespite cheaper gas

VMT still high, after years of growth VMT still high, after years of growth exceeding that of populationexceeding that of population

VMT still high, after years of growth VMT still high, after years of growth exceeding that of populationexceeding that of population

Growth of VMT, vehicle registrations, and population in the United States relative to 1980 values

Growth of VMT, vehicle registrations, and population in the United States relative to 1980 values

1980 2004

U.S. share of car emissions of GHGU.S. share of car emissions of GHGU.S. share of car emissions of GHGU.S. share of car emissions of GHG

Why Why dodo we drive so much? we drive so much?Why Why dodo we drive so much? we drive so much?

Do we have

another choice?

Do we have

another choice?

National ~ October 5, 7, 9-10, 2007 SLIDE 27

Three-fourths of Americans believe public transportation and smarter development will do more to

cure traffic than building new roads.“Which of the following proposals is the best long-term solution to reducing traffic in your area?”

49%

26%

21%

Improve public transportation

Develop communities where people do not have to drive as much

Build new roads

•

Decline in Households with Kids Decline in Households with Kids Decline in Households with Kids Decline in Households with Kids

HouseholdHousehold 19601960 20002000 20252025

With With ChildrenChildren 48%48% 33%33% 28%28%

Without Without ChildrenChildren 52%52% 67%67% 72%72%

Single Single PersonPerson 13%13% 26%26% 29%29%

Census for 1960 and 2000, 2025 adapted from Martha Farnsworth Riche, How Changes in the Nation’s Age and Household Structure Will Reshape Housing Demand in the 21st Century, HUD, 2003.

The Senior TsunamiThe Senior Tsunami

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National Real Estate Analysis,National Real Estate Analysis,Robert Charles Lesser Co.Robert Charles Lesser Co.

National Real Estate Analysis,National Real Estate Analysis,Robert Charles Lesser Co.Robert Charles Lesser Co.

Convenient locations hold value as Convenient locations hold value as more driving-dependent areas suffermore driving-dependent areas sufferConvenient locations hold value as Convenient locations hold value as more driving-dependent areas suffermore driving-dependent areas suffer

Washington Post: “The current slump is Washington Post: “The current slump is worse in counties far from the Beltway, worse in counties far from the Beltway, such as such as Prince WilliamPrince William, where prices fell , where prices fell 13 percent year over year, and slight in 13 percent year over year, and slight in others, such as others, such as ArlingtonArlington, which saw a 2 , which saw a 2 percent decrease.percent decrease.

Metro DC Foreclosure Rates Metro DC Foreclosure Rates by Countyby County

Metro DC Foreclosure Rates Metro DC Foreclosure Rates by Countyby County

Source: RealtyTrac, Center for Regional Analysis

Bridges to Nowhere?Bridges to Nowhere? Or Bridges that Stand?Or Bridges that Stand?

Reauthorization of federal Reauthorization of federal transportation law - SAFETEA-LUtransportation law - SAFETEA-LU

Reauthorization of federal Reauthorization of federal transportation law - SAFETEA-LUtransportation law - SAFETEA-LU

To learn more:To learn more:

T4America.orgT4America.org

THANK YOU!THANK YOU!THANK YOU!THANK YOU!

Contact me:Contact me:

Dgoldberg@T4America.orgDgoldberg@T4America.org

More on our web sites:More on our web sites:

SmartGrowthAmerica.orgSmartGrowthAmerica.org

T4America.orgT4America.org