transition initiatives from oil dependency to local resilience. june 16 th 2008. rob hopkins....

Transition InitiativesTransition InitiativesFrom Oil Dependency to Local From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.Resilience.

June 16June 16thth 2008. Rob Hopkins. 2008. Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network Network

The Petroleum Interval The Petroleum Interval

Peak Oil.Peak Oil.

From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook.

Oil Producers (98)Oil Producers (98)

www.lastoilshock.com

Post Peak Oil Producers Post Peak Oil Producers (64)(64)

www.lastoilshock.com

Discovery peaked 40 years agoDiscovery peaked 40 years ago

Past discovery by ExxonMobil

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Past afterExxon-Mobil3yr moving average

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Production peaks follow discovery.Production peaks follow discovery. ((You have to find it before you can produce it).You have to find it before you can produce it).

Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil

President Bush in SaudiPresident Bush in Saudi

Terry Moran: "What can you say to the king here to get those high oil prices down?"

George Bush Well, I will say to him that if it is possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers . . ."

Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a tougher approach, one in which we essentially say, "you owe us" for all we have done for you.

Bush: "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."

World Unconventional World Unconventional Production Production 1936 - 20061936 - 2006

Filling the Gap: the Filling the Gap: the Unconventional Oils. Unconventional Oils.

New Brazilian New Brazilian ‘Superfield’‘Superfield’Will require;Will require; equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per

square inch of pressure, enough to crush a square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truckpickup truck

pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius)

drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick and cost $50,000 eachthan one mile thick and cost $50,000 each

`̀This is a very, very technically challenging This is a very, very technically challenging environment where no one's ever done this, environment where no one's ever done this, these discoveries are in very deep water, and these discoveries are in very deep water, and once you get to the seabed they are very deep once you get to the seabed they are very deep under the floor, with a layer of salt that is under the floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a difficult barrier’ definitely a difficult barrier’

The Growth in BiofuelsThe Growth in Biofuels

The UK: The Widening The UK: The Widening GapGap

Source: DTI

Gas? UK Continental Shelf Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual Forecast & Import Annual Forecast & Import Requirement Requirement

Source – National Grid

““The UK is a The UK is a secondary priority. secondary priority. Like it or not, that is Like it or not, that is a fact”. a fact”.

Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-president, Gassco. president, Gassco.

...Climate Change; Far ...Climate Change; Far Faster than Expected.Faster than Expected.

Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of 2007. Carbon Equity.

Energy Return on Energy Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)Invested (EROEI)

Carbon EmissionsCarbon Emissions

RapidDepletionand/or early peaking

SlowDepletionand/or later

peaking

Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets

Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government

4 Energy Scenarios

3 1

24

RapidDepletionand/or early peaking

SlowDepletionand/or later

peaking

Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets

Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government

4 Energy Scenarios

“Techno-Markets”aka “Sustainable Development”

“Burnout”aka “Climate Chaos”

aka “Business as Usual”

“Lean Economy” *aka “Powerdown”

“Collapse”aka “Mad Max”

aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia”

* per David Fleming

Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.) climate engineeringclimate engineering carbon capture and carbon capture and

storagestorage tree-based carbon tree-based carbon

offsetsoffsets international international

emissions tradingemissions trading climate adaptationclimate adaptation improved improved

transportation transportation logisticslogistics

nuclear powernuclear power

PLANNED PLANNED RELOCALISATIONRELOCALISATION

local resiliencelocal resilience carbon reductioncarbon reduction consume closer to homeconsume closer to home produce closer to homeproduce closer to home play closer to homeplay closer to home decentralised energy decentralised energy

infrastructureinfrastructure the Great Reskillingthe Great Reskilling localised foodlocalised food energy descent plansenergy descent plans local medicinal capacitylocal medicinal capacity local currencieslocal currencies

PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquidscoal to liquids gas to liquidsgas to liquids relaxed drilling relaxed drilling

regulationsregulations massively scaled massively scaled

biofuelsbiofuels tar sands and non-tar sands and non-

conventional oilsconventional oils resource resource

nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling

Principle #1. Resilience.Principle #1. Resilience.Totnes in the 1930’s…Totnes in the 1930’s…

© Totnes Image Bank

George Heath.George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer.A Powerdown Pioneer.

© Totnes Image Bank

Food - Urban Gardens in Food - Urban Gardens in CubaCubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana

RelocalisationRelocalisation

“…“…localisation localisation stands, at best, at stands, at best, at the limits of the limits of practical possibility, practical possibility, but it has the but it has the decisive argument decisive argument in its favour that in its favour that there will be no there will be no alternative”alternative”

David FlemingDavid Fleming

Principle #2. Visioning

#3. Inclusion#3. Inclusion

#4. Awareness Raising#4. Awareness Raising

#5. Psychological Insights#5. Psychological Insights

#6. Credible and Appropriate #6. Credible and Appropriate Solutions.Solutions.

UK: Totnes , Penwith, Ivybridge, Falmouth , Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud , Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean,

Nottingham, Wrington , Brighton & Hove , Portobello, Scotland , Market Harborough, West Kirby , Llandeilo ,

Bro Dyfi , Whitstable, Marsden/Slaithwaite , Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight ,

Dunbar, Scotland,

Ireland : Kinsale Australia: Sunshine Coast New Zealand : Waiheke Island, Orewa

The 12 Steps of Transition. The 12 Steps of Transition. Step Step 1: 1: Form a Steering Group and Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Design Its Demise from the Outset. Outset.

Step Two: Step Two: Awareness Raising…Awareness Raising…

Step 3:Step 3:Lay the Foundations.Lay the Foundations.

• Collaborate where possible

• Co-operation, not competition.

Working with BusinessWorking with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis. Oil Vulnerability Analysis.

Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses.

Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group.

Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow.

Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce

Estates in Transition conference. June 11th 2007.

Working with Local Working with Local Landowners.Landowners.

Step 4.Step 4.The Official UnleashingThe Official Unleashing

“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.

Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.

Step 5:Step 5:Form Working Groups. Form Working Groups.

Up and RunningUp and RunningArts / Food / Energy / Economics / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health /of change / Medicine and Health /Housing / Education / TransportHousing / Education / Transport

Step 6:Step 6:Use Open Space Use Open Space Technology. Technology.

Step 7:Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. of the Project.

“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.

The Totnes Local Food Directory.

The Totnes PoundThe Totnes Pound

Transition TalesTransition Tales

Step 8:Step 8:Facilitate the Great Facilitate the Great ReskillingReskilling

Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…

Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.

Great Reskilling courses. Great Reskilling courses.

Wild Foods, Wild Foods, natural natural building, seed building, seed saving, hand saving, hand made paints, made paints, stove building, stove building, forest forest gardening, food gardening, food growing, bread growing, bread making...making...

Step 9:Step 9:Build a Bridge to Local Build a Bridge to Local GovernmentGovernment

World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors

Endorsed by Totnes Town Council

Contributions to Local Development Framework.

Step 10:Step 10:Honour the Elders.Honour the Elders.

Step 11:Step 11:Let It Go Where It Wants to Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.Go.

Solar Water Heater Solar Water Heater Challenge.Challenge.

The Totnes Renewable The Totnes Renewable Energy Society (TRESOC)Energy Society (TRESOC)

Lending Library.Lending Library. NISP workshopsNISP workshops TTT International Youth TTT International Youth

Music Festival. Music Festival. Garden SwapGarden Swap

Step 12:Step 12:Create an Energy Descent Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Action Plan.

Start with a vision and Start with a vision and then backcastthen backcast

Incorporate Transition Incorporate Transition TalesTales

Base it on current Base it on current planning documents.planning documents.

New ZealandNew Zealand IrelandIreland JapanJapan

National Scale HubsNational Scale Hubs

Devolved Nations: Transition Scotland Network•To support, network, encourage,

support and train Transition initiatives across Scotland

South East Transition InitiativesSouth East Transition Initiatives An evolution from Transition An evolution from Transition

Town Lewes and Forest RowTown Lewes and Forest Row Will initially take over Will initially take over

supporting, inspiring and trainingsupporting, inspiring and training

City Scale – Transition Bristol•Awareness raising•600 trees in ‘Virtual Orchard’•12 Neighbourhood groups

Regional Scale

Transition IslandsTransition Islands Isles of Scilly, Man and WightIsles of Scilly, Man and Wight

Transition Training•Run across the UK•Training the Trainer

Training•Transition Talk Training

We’ve Been Here We’ve Been Here BeforeBefore

...What Happened ...What Happened Then?Then?

www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org

www.transitiontowns.org/Totneswww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes

. .

Now Available!

“The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local resilience” published by Green Books, 6th March 2008