tns media intelligence/ campaign media analysis group september 4, 2008
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TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group
September 4, 2008
The “Business” of Politics
The 2008 Election Forecast Update
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Part of a world leading market information group TNS
Located in Arlington, VA
Providing insights on political media research since 1997
Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising
Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting
Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communications efforts
National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, the political and financial press academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data
TNS Media Intelligence/CMAGThe Business of Politics
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The 2008 Election Forecast UpdateThe “Business” of Politics
Review the CMAG Forecast
The Building Blocks of Our 2008 Forecast
Not a banner year
The numbers
State & Local Overview
The Race For the White House
The battleground
The landscape
Looking Ahead
2009 and 2010
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:
The Political Marketplace
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending OverviewThe Race to Election Day
CMAG Forecast: $3 Billion on Campaign Ads
27 percent of total and climbing
$430m more than 2004
Over $25 million per week
Typically 70 percent of total is spent over final 60 days
Spending Drivers
Historic presidential race
Competitive down ballot races
Ballot measures
Well-funded interest groups
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The 2008 CMAG ForecastBuilding Blocks
Macro-Factors (wrong)
Both presidential candidates will forego public financing
Primaries will be over after February 5, 2008
Early start to general election ads
Network TV will not be utilized beyond the primary
Similar battleground from 2000 and 2004 elections
Groups will be early and significant ad spenders
US House will become GOP “firewall”
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The 2008 CMAG Forecast Building Blocks
Macro-Factors (right)
Record primary ad spending
Early start to primary ads
Expansion of candidates using TV ads
Some network TV and more cable buys
Growth in “issue awareness” spending
The Internet will not replaced TV in 2008
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Internet ElectionTake Six
This Is “The Internet Election” (maybe)
1998: Read my plan
2000: Look what I can do!
2002: Cool web site, bad candidate
2004: Meet up with Howard Dean
2006: Macaca mania
2008: Tools in the box
Internet: Still More Questions Than Answers
Is it for selling or buying?
Can you reach undecided voters?
- If yes, how?What’s the role for web ads in 2010 and beyond?
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Top-tier presidential campaigns
Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots
$7-10 million total spent in presidential race
$3-5 million on non-presidential ads
Top sites: local and national news, ideology, demographic, sports and election
Mistakes and perception
Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastThe Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers
Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008
US Senate:
Candidate $220-250 million $40 million
Party $60-100 million $5 million
IE $10-20 million $9.5 million
US House:
Candidate $200-230 million $41 million
Party $100-160 million $4 million
IE $20-50 million $5.4 million
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: The US Senate
US Senate - Sea of red- The Magic 60?- New GOP Firewall
Most Competitive States - Alaska- Colorado- Kentucky - Maine- Minnesota- Mississippi- New Hampshire - New Mexico - North Carolina- Oregon - Virginia
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: US House
US House
Enormous battleground
Democratic Party cash advantage
- Over $50 million placed alreadyCash-strapped GOP
Most Competitive StatesArizona
Connecticut
Indiana
Ohio
New York
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Florida
Pennsylvania
Virginia
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers
Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008
State and Local
Governors $90-110 million $31 million
Ballots $190-230 million $121 million
Judges/AG $50-60 million $12 million
Other $175-250 million $32 million
Issue: $330-400 million $250 million
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers
Governors
- 11 states holding governor elections
Ballot Measures
- 28 states - Affirmative action, abortion,
healthcare, gaming, gay rights, taxes immigration, energy and unions
- Over $114 million in California
Issue Ad Spending
- Energy, environment, healthcare and telecom
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers
2008 Race for the White House
Primary Overview:
Over $220 million on TV ads in primary
Combined spending: Democrats $150 million vs. GOP $58 million
Majority of early IE spending on issues and not candidates
Ad spending focused on early states
- $87 million spent on TV ads in IA, NH and SC
- Contest-by-contest focus meant primary ad spending in 46 states
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Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers
Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008
Presidential Race:Candidate $400-460 million $269 million*Party $150-175 million $4.1 millionGroups $100-140 million $71 million
*January-August 24th 2008
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2008 Forecast Update
The Battleground
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2004 Election Map Begin Where We Ended
Bush: 286Kerry: 252
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Pre-Labor Day Target States
Alaska
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The Battleground Many Scenarios and Possibilities
Post Convention Battlefield
Minimal bounce for Obama campaign
What will the McCain Convention/Palin bounce be?
Battleground Today
7 True Battleground states
- NV, CO, NM, NH, ND, OH, & VA5 Lean Republican
- GA, FL, IN, MO, & MT4 Lean Democrat
- PA, IA, WI, & MI
Key Regions/States this Fall
Mountain West (CO, NM, NV and MT)
Great Lakes (MI, WI OH, MN and Western PA)
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2008 Forecast Update
The Race for the White House
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The Stretch Run The Landscape: “Most Advantages Since Watergate”
Polls Favors Democrats Nationally - Unpopular president- Right track/wrong track - Political scandals and mismanagement - Economic anxiety - War fatigued- Lopsided party ID/registration - Down ballot races leaning
overwhelmingly toward Democrats- Democrats have a monetary advantage
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The Candidates Barack Obama
Spending & Fundraising
Record-setting
Expanding use of media/tools
Off public financing
Strategy
Use up as much “oxygen” as possible with ads and media
Own, don’t rent, the message
National themes and local attacks
Keys to success
Expand the battleground
Prevent being “Swift-boated”
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The Candidates John McCain
Spending & Fundraising
Finished primary strong
Taking public financing
Strategy
Go negative
Disciplined
Define the race
Keys to success
Keep battleground compact
RNC money
Rely on groups for some messages
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The Supporter Will they play a role?
The Party’s
Republican Party is well-funded
- Support role for McCain Democratic Party is not as well funded
- Raising money now - Tapping Obama donors
527 Groups
Late money is being raised
Disruptive
Issue-Driven Agenda Groups
Millions spent on issues focused on the general election
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The Presidential Race It All Comes Down to Turnout
Crucial Voting Blocs
Clinton supporters
Ron Paul supporters
Evangelicals
Hispanics
Moderate/Independents
Young voters
Tone Of the race
Negative
Personal
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Political Factors
Pres. & Vice Pres. debates will be crucial
Battleground post-conventions?
Can Obama turn any red states purple?
Can McCain hold the base?
Fundraising Republican vs. Democratic
Can Obama raise $1 billion from his 2 million?
Can McCain/RNC/others keep up?
International or Domestic Events
Weather, Economy, War on Terror, Russia, Israel and Iran
October Surprises
What will they be?
Will the undecided break come early or late?
Events: Impacting Election Spending
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2008 Forecast Update
Looking Ahead
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Looking Ahead: 2009New Beginning
Reasons to be Optimistic about spending
Start of a new political business cycle
One Political Party will need re-building and re-branding
New Federal Government
Leadership & makeup of US House and Senate
Special elections:- Arizona and/or Illinois/Delaware - Cabinet Appointments
2008 Issues Drive 2009 Issue Ad Spending:
Energy $232 million
Healthcare $150 million
Economy $72 million
Iraq $55 million
Gas Prices $40 million
Trade $9 million
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Looking Ahead 2010Onward and Upwards
Early campaigning
2010 redistricting
Target States
Arkansas
California
Ohio
Georgia
Pennsylvania
Florida
New Record Likely
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Thank You
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Past, Present, Future
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