tmt predictions 2014
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TMT Predictions 2014 Advance. Intelligence.
1 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
TMT Predictions was first published in 2001
2 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
TMT Predictions methodology
8,000 specialists in
TMT, tax, audit, risk,
corporate finance
and consulting
Deloitte TMT
Research
Projects/discussio
ns with industry
bodies
Macroeconomic
research
Discussions with
clients around the
world
Experts at
industry analysts
and financial
institutions
3 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Special thanks to Ipsos Reid!
Our exclusive partner and sponsor of Canadian public opinion data!
These questions were captured as part
of the Ipsos Reid Online Omnibus
– The method of data collection was
online and the sample source was
the Ipsos iSay panel
– A total of 1,032 interviews were
conducted, 18+
– Data is nationally representative of
the Canadian Population (and the
survey was administered in English
and French)
– The study was in field between
December 5th and 9th, 2013
Steve Levy Mary Beth Barbour
4 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
>250 end notes + >400 references + 1000s x conversations + 10,000s survey responses = P 13. Endnotes
TMT Predictions 2013 Report card
6 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
2013 Technology Predictions report card
The PC is not dead – It’s about usage not units
Bring your own computer – A tale of two interpretations
P@$$1234 – The end of strong password-only security
Enterprise Social Networks – Another tool, but not yet a panacea
Crowdfunding portals will raise $3 billion in the year ahead
The button stays beautiful
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
7 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
8 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
9 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
2013 Media Predictions report card
4K kicks off
Dual video screening readies for prime time
Connected TV – Hits and misses
Over-the-top may lift legacy broadcasters and distributors more
than pure plays
The reality of “cord cutting” in North America
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
10 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
2013 Telecom Predictions report card
A strong year for LTE adoption
Smartphones ship a billion but usage becomes simpler
Not all mobile advertising is created equal
All-you-can-app
Wireless spectrum “rush hour” means more traffic jams
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
11 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Total prediction accuracy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
No Theme! No Theme! No Theme! No Theme! No Theme!
Mass market 20% of
total sales
Niche market 80% of
total sales
Number of items
The long tail: Less loved items
and products
The body: Bestsellers
and blockbusters
Sale
s
14 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Une grande niche
15 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
16 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
17 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartglasses
18 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right?
19 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartglasses
for
smartworkers
20 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Is it time for smartwatches?
21 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
We have had the decade of the device
22 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$90099A
00A
01A
02A
03A
04A
05A
06A
07A
08A
09A
10A
11A
12A
13P
14E
15E
16E
17E
18E
PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
The decade of the device B
illi
on
s
23 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e
Handset
repla
cem
ent
cycle
in m
onth
s
Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence
24 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E
5 year trailing CAGR
25 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Less money for
hardware means
more money for…
26 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales
of PCs, smartphones, tablets, TVs and game consoles
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E
27 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets
<5.0 inches
Phablets will be 25% of the
global smartphone market
of 1.2 billion devices.
At an ASP of $417, that’s
$125 billion in sales.
Global smartphone sales
28 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
67%
23% 10%
5.1” to 5.9”
6.0” to 6.9”
Phablet ownership breakdown
5.0” to 5.1”
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
29 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
“only” 25%
30 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very likely Somewhatlikely
Neither likelynor unlikely
Somewhatunlikely
Very unlikely
After seeing TMT Predictions, how likely are you to
spend more money with Deloitte? (normal distribution)
31 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very likely Somewhatlikely
Neither likelynor unlikely
Somewhatunlikely
I'd rather beattacked by
weasels(fouines)
Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely
are you to purchase a phablet?
(55+ only, n=351)
32 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-34 35-54 55+
Likely (T2B)
Very Unlikely (BB)
Phablet intent to purchase as next mobile device
n=184 n=230 n=129
16% Overall (n=1,032)
46%
33 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Phablet intent to purchase as next mobile device (cont’d)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Likely (T2B)
Unlikely (BB)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
16% Overall (n=1,032)
46%
34 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
99A
00A
01A
02A
03A
04A
05A
06A
07A
08A
09A
10A
11A
12A
13P
14E
15E
16E
17E
18E
PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets
Remember the mass-niche? B
illi
on
s
35 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments, 2011 Q4-2013Q2
0 M
3 M
6 M
9 M
12 M
15 M
18 M
21 M
24 M
4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13
Unit Shipments
Portable PC Tablet Phablet
36 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
37 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Germany
France
Netherlands
United States
UK
Japan
Spain
South Korea
Singapore
Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too
Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013
Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269
38 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
39 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
40 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
41 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
8% 7% 11%
16%
22%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Never downloaded even one app (Developed Countries)
56% 54%
45% 39%
32% 25%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
IM usage (Developed Countries)
75% 66%
51% 44%
35% 28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Social Networking (Developed Countries) − Smartphone owners
42 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
43 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Light space suit, appropriate for +130º C temperatures
44 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
45 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
27,6 26,7 27,3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+
46 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0–20% Quintile – average hours per week
4,1 3,8
3,6 3,4
3,1
5,8 5,9
4,9 4,6
4,3 3,9
7,5 7,6 7,5 7,6
7,1 6,9
7,1 6,8
6,6
7,1 7,0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E
Ave
rag
e H
ou
rs p
er
We
ek
Total TV Eng (0-20%) Total TV French (0-20%)
Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a
*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009
Adjusted to compare to PPM data
47 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
80–100% Quintile – average hours per week
58,1
55,9
57,1
54,9
53,9
52,1
54,5
55,9 56,7 57,0
58,0
50,9
55,2 56,1
59,3
60,6 60,3
62,3 62,5
61,1 62,0 62,0
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E
Ave
rag
e H
ou
rs p
er
We
ek
Total TV Eng (80-100%) Total TV French (80-100%)
Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a
*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009
Adjusted to compare to PPM data
48 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
The reality
Number of Canadian homes that subscribe to any of cable, telco or
satellite pay TV service (millions)
11,8 11,8 11,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014
10,873 homes
cut the cord as of
September 30,
2013
49 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Canadians who are currently subscribing to video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in first free month
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
BC AB SK/MB ONT PQ ATL
50 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Credit: Keytrends Report 2014, @CMF_Trends
52 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Q1 2011
(weekly hours)
Q1 2013
(weekly hours)
Year over year
change
TV 1 69.8 75.1 +8%
TV 2 39.2 38.6 -2%
TV 3 26.0 24.2 -10%
TV 4 17.2 13.8 -19%
TV 5 6.8 4.2 -38%
Total 0%
US TV viewing in homes with internet
53 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
54 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
The reality
Number of Canadian homes that subscribe to any of cable, telco or
satellite pay TV service (millions)
11,8 11,8 11,8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2012 2013 2014
10,873 homes
cut the cord as of
September 30,
2013
55 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
We’re not cutting TV cords, we’re stacking them
Canadian households with at least one monthly pay TV subscription
service (millions)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2014
One sub Two subs Two plus
56 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female
n=244 n=437 n=351 n=454 n=578
Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month
Overall (n=1,032)
19%
57 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
58 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad
Current Subs/First Month
Former Subs
Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix)
n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239
Overall (n=1,032)
19%
7%
59 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
60 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
61 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
62 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
63 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
64 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
65 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Aussi en France!
66 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
67 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
68 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Only completions count!
Global tertiary courses completed 2014
Traditional Education MOOCs
100 million FTEs
@ ten courses
per year
69 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Deep dive on U.S. student loans, cost of education, and income
70 © Deloitte LLP and affiliated entities.
Technology and
networks have
changed
Pedagogy has
changed
Skills half life and
retraining have
changed
Government ability
to pay has changed
Student ability to pay has
changed
Push vs. pull has changed
(Learn what you want,
when you want)
Data and analytics has
changed…to real time and
granular
Cross-subsidization will
need to change!
“The perfect storm”
TMT Predictions tailored events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a
presentation for your office/industry.
• Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca
• Follow me on Twitter: @dunstewart
• Connect on LinkedIn
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