title adapting to climate change: measuring progress adaptation sub-committee progress report 2011...

Title

Adapting to climate change: measuring progress

Adaptation Sub-Committee Progress Report 2011

Lord Krebs Kt FRS14 July 2011

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Extreme weather events are in the headlines

Adaptation Sub-Committee

Established by Climate Change Act 2008 to:• advise on preparedness of UK

for climate change• monitor progress in adaptation

Dr Andrew Dlugolecki

Lord John KrebsChairman

Prof Tim Palmer

Prof Anne Johnson

Sir Graham Wynne

Dr Sam Fankhauser

Prof Martin Parry

Prof Jim Hall

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ASC’s second progress report

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• Measuring progress in adaptation (indicators)

• Focus on three priority areas

• Advise on Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)

www.theccc.org.uk/reports

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ASC ladder: indicators of preparedness

Vulnerability to current climate and

future climate

Uptake of low-regret actions

Accounting for climate change in

long-term decisions

Indicators: development in flood risk areas

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Type Indicator Trend

Impact Insurance claims for weather related causes

Vulnerability New dwellings built in areas of high flood risk

Action Uptake of resilience measures in new build

Builds on original work by AEA Technology (2011) for ASC

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Focus of the second report

Land use planning

Managing water resources

Design and renovation of residential buildings

Providing national infrastructure

Managing natural resources

Designing and renovating buildings

Emergency planning

Land use planning

ASC’s adaptation priorities Assessed in this report

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Land use planning

Development in flood risk areas continues

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River/coastal flood risk areasSurface water flood risk areasAll areas

Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

Chan

ge 2

001

– 20

11 (%

)

Hard surfacing is increasing at expense of urban greenspace

10

Natural area

Mixed use

Man-made surfaces

Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

% C

hang

e in

200

1 –

2011

Use of flood protection measures in new buildings

11

Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

Increased protection from flood defences

12

Source: Environment Agency (2011)

Addi

tiona

l hou

seho

lds

prot

ecte

d

But residual flood risk still increasing in sampled locations

13

Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

% C

hang

e in

dev

elop

ed a

rea

Environment Agency Flood risk category

14

Managing water resources

Security of water supply has improved, but with continued environmental cost

15

Source: From data reported to Ofwat (‘June returns’).

Secu

rity

of s

uppl

y in

dex

16

Source: ASC calculations based on revised Water Resource Management Plans 2009.

Without adaptation, there could be deficits in some parts of country

10 – 20% deficit

20 – 30% deficit

>30% deficit > 30% surplus

20 – 30% surplus

10 – 20% surplus

0 – 10% deficit 0 – 10% surplus

Zones in deficit or surplus (2035)

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Water companies plan a mix of supply and demand measures to close the gap

Thames Water preferred plan

Source: ASC presentation of Thames Water data extracted from WRMP

Current projected demand

Reduced leakage

Reduced leakage + demand

Mill

ions

of l

itres

There is scope to increase action on demand

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Our economic analysis suggests that it is cost-effective to reduce demand to 115 litres per person per day in the South East

Uncertainty is not fully factored in to water resource planning

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Source: Atkins (2011) for the ASC and Thames Water.

Projected deficits

Adaptation pathways

medium low

2050s medium

2080s high

Groundwater

Pathway 3Pathway 3

Pathway 1

Pathway 2

high

2020s

Deficits

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Designing and renovating buildings

Low-regret opportunities for adaptation – water efficiency measures

New build

End-of-life upgradeRetrofit

Cost

-ben

efit r

atio

Rain water system Grey water system

Dual-flush WC

Ml/year

New build package at zero additional cost: 115 l/person/day

Source: Davis Langdon (AECOM) (2011) for the ASC

85 l/person/ day standard

End-of-life upgrade at zero additional cost: Low-flow shower, taps, WC

Click-lock taps

Low-waterwashing machine

1

Summary of headline messages

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UK is coping with current climate variabilitySome sectors are near the limits and vulnerability is likely to increase

Low-regret actions could be taken now

Long-term decisions not fully incorporating climate adaptation

Opportunities for National Adaptation Programme

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ASC Priority Key Barriers Opportunities

Land use planning

• Not accounting for long –term costs

• Insufficient guidance

• Localism Bill• National Planning

Policy Framework

Managing water resources

• Planning not factoring in full range of climate uncertainties

• Weak signals to encourage sustainable abstraction

• Water White Paper• Price Review 2014

Design and renovation of residential buildings

• Lack of information, available capital or incentives

• Future reviews of Building Regulations

• Green Deal

Adaptation Sub-Committeehttp://www.theccc.org.uk

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Increase in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011) Decrease in area of buildings in area of flood risk (2001 – 2011)

East Riding Kingston-upon-Hull

Source: Arup (2011) for ASC

Development in flood risk areas continues