three things (i think i know) about the land use / transportation connection jon d. fricker 21 june...
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Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection
Jon D. Fricker21 June 2007
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 2
Transportation and Land Use Issues
A. “Urban Sprawl”
B. Euclidean zoning
C. Gasoline prices
D.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 3
What the travel model says:
1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 4
What economic analysis says:
2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 5
What people say:
3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 6
1. Changing LU patterns
• Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood.
• LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite
• Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 7
1. Reverse Engineered N’hood
A. LU Categories by trip frequency:>1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month: Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al.
B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs: Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for
each LU Average size of each LU
C. Scale up to 1 sq mi
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 8
1. REN example calc (1)
• 901.58 trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket
• 1.327 trips/week/HH to supermarket
• Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs
• Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft 0.004 supermarkets per 100 HH
• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 9
1. REN example calc (2)
• Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs total land area needed to serve 100 HHs
• Assumed HHs/acre land needed
• Scale up to fill one square mile “attractions” in REN
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 10
1. REN travel model
• Let residents work and shop anywhere.
• TAZ size one city block
• Subarea analysis• VMT or Trip Length
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 11
1. Changes in Travel
Avg. TL (miles)
REN+5 zones
EUCLID+5 zones
% change w.r.t. EUCLID
HBW 4.601 4.712 -2.4HBNW 2.933 3.233 -9.3NHB 3.790 3.949 -4.0
Avg. TL (miles)
Trips in/out of REN
Trips in and out of EUCLID
% change w.r.t. EUCLID
HBW 2.292 2.407 -4.8
HBNW 0.909 1.012 -10.2NHB 0.763 1.278 -40.3
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 12
1. Lessons
• Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer.
• The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level.
• The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 13
2. Neighborhood businesses
• How many retail How many retail establishments can establishments can a New Urbanist a New Urbanist neighborhood neighborhood support?support?
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 14
2. Neighborhood businesses
• Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type
• Nhood area one sq mi• 5(?) HHs/sq mi• Do “Market Analysis”
(next two slides)
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 15
2. Consumer Expenditure-2. Consumer Expenditure-Based Market AnalysisBased Market Analysis
An average household spends $3000 a year An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items.on grocery-store related items.
• An average grocery store has sales of An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year.$600,000 a year.
• Then, the number of grocery stores that Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 16
2. Household-Based Market 2. Household-Based Market AnalysisAnalysis
• There are 1000 banks in a state with a There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).person).
• The average income at the state level is $12,000 The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year.a year.
• The average income at the county level is The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year.$10,000 a year.
• Then, the number of banks that can be Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks$12,000) = 0.83 banks
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 17
2. Lessons
At “normal” urban densities for single-family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one-square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge. Density must be increased dramatically,
probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or The “neighborhood” stores must rely on
customers from other neighborhoods.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 18
3. Preference Surveys • Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a
neighborhood association.(1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence. (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 19
3. LU Preferences (1)
• Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page)
• Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office.
• A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 20
3. LU preferences (2)
1.6
2.2
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2.6
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3.9
4.0
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5.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Liquor Store
Auto Repair Shop
Insurance Sales Office
Office Supplies Store
Video Rental Store
J ewelry Store
Furniture Store
Electric Appliance Store
P rofessional Services Office
Fitness Center
Theatre
Dry Cleaner
Hardware Store
Hair and Beauty Salon
Department Store
Bookstore
Dentist
P ublic Library
Bank
Restauraunt
Doctor
P harmacy
Grocery Store
Church
Av
era
ge
Sc
ore
Land Use Type
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 21
3. New Urbanist Cases
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 22
3. Residents’ Opinions
• People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety.
• Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic.
• Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity.
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 23
In other words, …
• Not this: • But this:
21 June 2007 3 Things ... LU/Tp 24
Review of Results
1. Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution.
2. High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed.
3. A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.
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