thinking outside the triangle

Thinking outside the triangle: using foresight in

project environments to deliver a resilient tomorrow

Marisa Silva

IPMA Expert Seminar

Zurich, Feb 2016

HOW CERTAIN ARE YOU ABOUT THE FUTURE ?

I think there is a world market for about five computers.Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping.Frank Knox, Secretary of the Navy, 4 December 1941, just before the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor

A severe depression like that of 1920-1921 is outside the range of probability.The Harvard Economic Society, 16 November 1929

Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist and president of the British Royal Society, c. 1895

WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?

From Gatti, L. (2014), A New Paradigm of Strategy – The Design of Long Term Futures

WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?

From Singh, S. (2014), New Mega Trends: Design Opportunities & Implications

WHY BOTHER WITH THE FUTURE ?

Companies fail to create the

future not because they fail to

predict it but because they

fail to imagine it.

Gary Hammel

Management guru

Taylor (1991)

HOW FAR AHEAD ARE YOU LOOKING ?

INPUTS

ANALYSIS

INTERPRETATION

PROSPECTION

OUTPUTS

STRATEGY

FO

RESIG

HT

Events happening

What seems to be happening?

What is really happening?

What might happen?

What might we need to do?

What will we do?

How will we do it?

Voros (2003)

A GENERIC FORESIGHT MODEL

PROJECTS

PROGRAMS

PORTFOLIOS

PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT

An individual and organizational ability to integrate future-

thinking in P3M processes and systematically make sense of

the future in relation to portfolios, programs, and projects.

Shenhar and Dvir (2001)

The extent to which the current

project helps prepare the

organization for future challenges

Risk Management and

Early Warning Indicators

PROJECT (PROIECTUM - “PROJECTION”)

Rooted on future-perfect-

thinking (Schutz, 1967)

Expanded to PM by Pitsis et. al.

(2003)

Forward-looking projections of

the non-yet existent end point

can help identifying the

required means to get there

Start with the end in mind

(backcasting)

Nikander et. al., 2001; Williams

et. al., 2010; Haji-Kazemi et. al.,

2013

Warning signs that possible

events are imminent

Discontinuities do not emerge

without warning (Wack, 1985)

Trend analysis and horizon

scanning

Future Preparedness Future-Perfect Strategy

PROGRAM: A POSTCARD FROM THE FUTURE

http://www.london-futures.com

Visioning

A “postcard from the future” (Managing Successful

Programmes, 2011: 54)

Communication and change tool

Compelling images of the preferred future (Bezold

et al., 2009)

Images can influence present behavior (Puglisi,

2002)

Does the selected portfolio of projects and programs withstand all these scenarios of the future?

Which set of projects and programs deliver the most suitable balance of risk, benefits and costs if a

certain scenario unfolds?

What would we change in our portfolio if we knew this scenario was going to occur?

DRIVING

FORCES

CRITICAL

UNCERTAINTIES

PLAUSIBLE

SCENARIOSPATHS AND

IMPLICATIONS

PORTFOLIO: THE ART OF THE LONG VIEW

Scenario Planning“Focus management energies and resources on those projects that will best

position the organization to pursue whichever scenario materializes” (Dye, 2002)

Woodward (2015)

Project Program Portfolio

Planning horizon Short-term Short to medium term Medium to long-term

Result Outputs Outcomes and benefits Value

Certainty of the

outcomeRelatively certain Uncertain Highly uncertain

View of the future focus Probable future Preferable future Plausible futures

Current streams of

research related to

Foresight

Future preparedness

Future-perfect strategy

Risk management and

early warning indicators

VisioningFuture preparedness

Scenario Planning

Applicability of

ForesightLimited applicability Applicable Significant applicability

Examples of Foresight

tools

Early warnings

Visioning

Visioning

Backcasting

Scenario Planning

Trend analysis

Horizon scanning

PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT: SUMMARY

NOTICING INTERPRETING PREPARING CONTAINING RECOVERINGCRISIS

FORESIGHT

Adapted from Kutsch and Turner (2015)

PROJECT PORTFOLIO FORESIGHT: AN ENABLER TO

FUTURE-RESILIENCE

Projects

Programs

PortfoliosFU

TU

RES

THE FUTURE IS A TWO-WAY STREET

TAKE AWAY POINTS

We need to think more about the future

Foresight is not about being right, is about being ready

Projects impact and are impacted by the future

PMs need to think outside the triangle

Anticipatory resilience in projects can be gained through the use of Foresight

The future is thus a two-way route, where resilience and sustainability walk hand in hand

OUR PROJECTS ARE OUR FUTURE.

LET’S MAKE IT A GOOD ONE.