thin films in india(april 18,2012)

Will Thin Films win in India?

Madhavan Nampoothiri

April 19, 2012

Berlin, Germany

About RESolve

• Advisory firm with strong capabilities in Strategic, Regulatory , Commercial and Technical aspects of renewable energy projects

• Founded by professionals from India and Germany with strong global exposure

• Specific focus on Solar PV and Wind in India

• Assistance in

– Market Entry strategy for solar firms to India

– Market Intelligence on the Indian Solar PV sector

– Concept-to-Commissioning of PV projects

– Policy and Regulatory issues

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

Agenda

Sun Shines on India

- Solar Resource availability

- 4-7 kWh/Sq.m/day in most parts of India

- Energy supply-demand imbalance

- 80% of oil is imported

- High reliance on imported coal

- Peak power deficit of 12.7%

- 50% of India’s population has very little access to electricity

- GHG emissions

- Policy and Regulatory support(MNRE and various state

governments)

9 27

446

936

482

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

MW

p

Year

India Solar PV growth trajectory

Annual PV Installations

Cumulative Installations

Source: MNRE

Predominantly ground-mounted systems

Policies and Status

Policy(Grid-

connected PV)

Capacity

addition targets

Projects

allocated

status(31st

March 2012)

Commissi

oning

status(31st

March

2012)

Domestic

content

requirement(

DCR)

JNNSM 10 GWp by 2022 ~ 600 MWp

allotted in Phase

1(including

migration

projects)

~ 150

MWp

C-Si : Cells

and Modules

TF : No

mandate

Rajasthan 350 MWp by

2017

Nil Nil No

Gujarat 500 MWp by

2014

~ 500 MWp ~ 300

MWp

No

Madhya Pradesh RPO targets None. 200 MWp

planned for

2012-13

Nil Same as

JNNSM

Orissa RPO targets 25 MWp Nil No

Maharashtra RPO targets 150 MWp Nil; In

process

No

Karnataka 100 MWp by

2016

None. In process Nil No

Regulations

Renewable Purchase

Obligations(RPO)

25 GW(PV and

Thermal) by

2022

Not applicable ~43 MWp

in Private

sector

No

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

C-Si dominates in production….

• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW

• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW

• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible

– Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar

....but, Thin Film dominates in installations

020406080

100120

Total IREDA NVVN

Inst

alla

tio

ns

in M

Wp

Type of scheme

Technology selection under JNNSM

C-Si Thin FilmsSource: MNRE

- India bucks the global trend

- Thin films grabbed more

than 60% market share

Gujarat State policy

- 60-70% thin films

India – a good export market for global TF

companies

a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTe

Dupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USA

ECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USA

Masdar PV Germany SolarFrontier Japan

NexPower China

Schott Solar Germany

Sharp Japan

T-Solar Spain

-CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share(about 200

MWp)

- a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, has gained acceptance

-CIGS also has takers

Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

Growth Drivers

Technology

-Temperature coefficient

-Spectral response

Financing

- Ease of financing through

EXIM/ECB route

Cost

- Lower module cost

- Inexpensive land

1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

a. Technology

4. What could happen?

Thin Film Vs c-Si

Advantages

• Temperature coefficient

• Better performance under

diffuse light conditions

• Higher Energy Yield

• Faster energy payback

• Module grounding not

required for frameless

modules

Disadvantages

• Conversion efficiencies

• Area requirement

• Higher BOS requirement

• Breakage

• Aging behavior not known

• Materials shortage/toxicity

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Cco

nve

rsio

n e

ffic

ien

cy

Temperature(Deg C)

Efficiency drop at elevated

temperatures

a-Si CdTe CIGS

C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi)

Temperature coefficient & Spectral response

– The TF USP..

- Higher theoretical TF

energy yield during peak

season

• Better performance under diffuse

light; lesser shading effect

• Higher energy yield

The result : Higher energy yield for TF

- Theoretically, TF consistently generating more electricity

Source: GTM Research

But..- First Solar raised the warranty outlay for modules used in

hotter regions- Anxiety about long term performance of TF is growing

1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

b. Costs

4. What could happen?

Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still

maintains some advantage.

Source: pvxchange.com and others

-CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si

0.45

0.65

0.85

1.05

1.25

1.45

1.65

1.85

2.05

2.25

Euro

/Wp

Spot price(Euro/Wp)

Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan)

CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon

Land, BoS and O&M Costs

– Disadvantage for Thin Films

BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe

Land, BOS and O&M high

• Land requirement higher for Thin Films(Leads to more

exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower

requirement)

• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies

(More BOS means more Strings, more cable, more

Fuses and more breakdown possibilities)

Source: GTM Research$13,000 higher for Thin Film plant

Still …Overall cost lower than c-Si

• Land cost in India is negligible

• Higher BOS cost offset by lower module

price

• O&M Labor cost low

Marketing mantra for TF -$/kWh and not $/Wp

1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?

3. What is driving the growth?

c. Financing

4. What could happen?

Cost of Financing

• Local Content Requirement for C-Si, but not for TF.

• Project financing – very challenging to secure

• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-balance sheet financing

• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates

• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing

But….US EXIM financed company – Abound Solar has shut down production

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?

5. Conclusion

Thin films domination to continue, but there

are clouds in the horizon

• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted

– 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan

– At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films

• State solar policies(Gujarat, Karnataka, Rajasthan) – TF likely to dominate

• But questions about stability of performance at high temperature set to increase

• Bankability of TF companies(eg. Abound Solar) is also a concern

Agenda

1. Introduction

2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?

3. What is driving the growth?

4. What could happen?

5. Conclusion

Takeaways..

• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian

developers

• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options

driving TF growth in India

• Local content mandates have had limited impact

• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s

solar boom…

• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet

to evolve

Conclusion – Thin film will win in India, if..

• Bankability questions are properly answered.– First Solar performance in high temperature conditions

– Abound Solar’s capabilities

• Higher energy yield is proven in the field over a period of time

• Thin Film remains cost competitive(land cost, capital cost, O&M cost) relative to c-Si

Bottom line – Technology with best $/kWh will win

Thank you

Madhavan Nampoothiri

+91-98848-29214

madhavan@re-solve.in

www.re-solve.in