“the yaqui valley in 2020: an uncertain outlook” walter p. falcon
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“The Yaqui Valley in 2020:
An Uncertain Outlook”
Walter P. Falcon
Past as Prologue
“The problem with history is that it is just one damned thing after another.”
George Bernard Shaw
A Decade of Shocks
Economic• Peso Crisis 1994
• Removal of many subsidies and tariffs in conjuction with NAFTA
• Depressed world commodity prices, 1996-2001
Shocks
Biological
• White Flies----->Soybeans
• Karnal Bunt----->Wheat
• Rusts----->Wheat
Summer Crops
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1600001988
198
9
1990
1991
1992
1993
199
4
1995
199
6
1997
1998
1999
2000
200
1
2002
Har
vest
ed A
rea (
ha)
SorghumMaizeCottonSoybeans
Shocks
Climate• Drought--a severely negative factor
for all of Valley agriculture
• Cooler temperatures--a positive factor, at least with respect to wheat yields
Logo for the Valley
Irrigation--The Central Question
How does the Valley get started again with an empty reservoir?
Will new water conservation techniques and types of investments (such as pivot and drip) be needed?
Will higher valued crops then be necessary to pay for the new irrigation investments?
Will new forms of irrigation substantially reduce non point source nitrogen runoff/pollution?
One Vision--Opportunities and Problems
More use of Groundwater;More higher valued crops, which means
moving to demand-driven, forward contract systems;
More livestock and aquaculture production;
More point source pollution, more pesticide residues, less nitrogen non-point source runoff.
Whither Cereals in the Valley?
Can Mexican wheat be competitive internationally?
Are new high-yielding wheat cultivars possible which use much less irrigation water?
Is higher-yielding maize a near-term prospect?
Is replacement of wheat with triticale a logical move to avoid wheat pricing problems and to feed the livestock industry?
Profitability
FINANCIAL
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Whe
at
Fall
Mai
ze
Sum
Mai
ze
Sor
ghum
Cot
ton
($U
S/ha
)
199119962001
ECONOMIC
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
Whe
at
Fall
Mai
ze
Sum
Mai
ze
Sorg
hum
Cot
ton
($U
S/ha
)
199119962001
Government Support
Mexico (Total Agriculture)
Producer Support(2002)
$8,080 mil.
PSE--22%
General Services Support$0.710 mil.
United States (Total Agriculture)
Producer Support (2002)$39,559 mil.
PSE--18%
General Services Support$26,594 mil.
Types of Support in Mexico
Producer Support Payments
Market price support--66%Acreage payments--21%Income support--2%Input subsidies--8%Other--3%
Government SupportMexico (2002):Wheat Prod.--3.2 mmtGovernment Support$0.202 mil.Wheat PSE--34%
Maize Prod.--19.3 mmtGovernment Support$1,081 mil.Maize PSE--31%
United States (2002):Wheat Prod.--44.1 mmtGovernment Support$2,611 mil.Wheat PSE--30%
Maize Prod.--228.8 mmtGovernment Support$4,578 mil.Maize PSE--17%
Major Uncertainties Lie Ahead
What does the future hold with respect to:
• Water availability and irrigation design?• Bulk versus high valued commodities?• Crop versus livestock/aquaculture as the dominant systems?• Extent and types of Government support;• Political/economic concern for the ejiditarios?
The Valley in 2020?
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