the south carolina and santee-lynches economies: recession, recovery, then what? dr. don schunk...
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The South Carolina andSantee-Lynches Economies: Recession, Recovery, Then What?
Dr. Don SchunkResearch EconomistCenter for Economic & Community DevelopmentCoastal Carolina University
April 15, 2010
The Big Picture:Key Trends That Will Shape the
Next 5-10 Years
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
40
60
80
100
120
140
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
Savings Rate Debt-to-Income
savi
ng
s ra
ted
eb
t-to-inco
me
US Savings and Debt Trends: Implications for Spending
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Real Income Growth: 3.9%
Real Spending Growth: 3.8%
Real Income Growth: 3.1%
Real Spending Growth: 3.4%
????
????
60
62
64
66
68
70
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
pe
rce
nt
U.S. Homeownership Rate1965 - 2009
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Household DebtFederal Govt Debt
$ B
illio
ns
Debt Outstanding1966 - 2009
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
South Carolina Labor Market Trends
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
1800
1840
1880
1920
1960
07M01 07M07 08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Total EmploymentJan. 2007 – Jan. 2010
Feb 2008:1,950,700 jobs
Jan 2010:1,813,000 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
-138,000 jobs-7.1%
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – Jan. 2010
June 2000:1,876,600 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Jan 2010:1,813,000 jobs
Jan 2002:1,795,400 jobs
Feb 2008:1,950,700 jobs
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Employment Trends Since 1960
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Employment Trends Since 1960
+39,000 jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Employment Trends Since 1960
+60,000jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Actual EmploymentTrend Based on 1960-1979
job
s, 1
00
0s
SC Employment Trends Since 1960
-316,000jobs
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Understanding the “Lost” Decade:Trends in Manufacturing Employment
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
S.C. Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 – 2001Q4
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
job
s, 1
00
0s
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
job
s, 1
00
0s
S.C. Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 – 2009Q4
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
What happens as we lose 130,000 manufacturing jobs?
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Total EmploymentManufacturing Employment
tota
l jo
bs,
10
00
s mfg
job
s, 10
00
s
Manufacturing and Total Employment in South Carolina1970Q1 – 2009Q4
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Tracking The Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Employment Benchmark: Early 1990sEmployment Benchmark: Early 2000sActual SC Employment
Job
s, 1
00
0s
Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
1800
1840
1880
1920
1960
08M01 08M07 09M01 09M07 10M01 10M07
Employment Benchmark: Early 1990sEmployment Benchmark: Early 2000sActual SC Employment
Job
s, 1
00
0s
Tracking the South Carolina Employment Recovery
Dr. Don SchunkCoastal Carolina University
Santee-Lynches Economic Forecast 2010-2011
Presented by:Santee-Lynches Regional COG
& The BB&T Center for Economic and Community Developmentat Coastal Carolina University
Gross Retail Sales($ billions)
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
$4.00
History $2.81 $3.22 $3.34 $3.59 $3.93 $3.67 $3.13
Forecast $3.20 $3.35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Employment(thousands)
81.0
82.0
83.0
84.0
85.0
86.0
87.0
88.0
89.0
90.0
91.0
History 86.8 87.9 89.1 89.7 88.2 86.6 84.6
Forecast 84.3 84.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Labor Force(thousands)
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
History 93.8 95.2 97.0 97.0 94.6 94.3 97.0
Forecast 97.0 97.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
History 7.5 7.7 8.1 7.6 6.8 8.2 12.9
Forecast 13.1 12.6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2000-’09 data
-9,240manufacturingjob losses from2000-3rdQ ‘09
for region.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
-795 non-manufacturing job
losses from 2000-3rdQ ’09 for
region.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages
-10,035total job losses
from 2000-3rdQ ‘09for region.
“If real estate is location, location, location, then economic development in the new economy
is education, education, education.”
Dr. JOHN S. BUTLERProfessor, University of Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Single-Family Building Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
History 985 1218 1528 1457 1369 732 745
Forecast 780 850
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Single-Family Permits Value($millions)
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
$180.0
History $97.9 $123.2 $156.3 $161.3 $159.1 $85.8 $83.7
Forecast $88.0 $92.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Manufactured/Mobile Home Permits(# of permits)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
History 1197 966 931 834 737 609 537
Forecast 483 355
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nonresidential Building Permits(# of permits)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
History 147 123 146 170 150 117 78
Forecast 68 72
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nonresidential Permit Value($millions)
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
$80.0
History $50.3 $36.9 $37.1 $65.4 $28.1 $71.1 $21.1
Forecast $22.7 $23.9
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GDP Growth Rate(percent)
-3.5
-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
History 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.7 2.1 0.4 -2.4
Forecast 2.4 2.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI Inflation Rate(percent)
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
History 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.2 2.9 3.8 -0.3
Forecast 2.0 2.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Prime Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
History 4.1 4.3 6.2 8.0 8.1 5.1 3.3
Forecast 3.3 3.6
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
History 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.0
Forecast 5.4 6.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3-Month Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
History 1.0 1.4 3.1 4.7 4.4 1.4 0.2
Forecast 0.4 1.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
10-Year Treasury Rate(percent)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
History 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.7 3.3
Forecast 3.9 4.3
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
South Carolina Total Employment(millions)
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
History 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8
Forecast 1.8 1.8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
South Carolina Unemployment Rate(percent)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
History 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.4 5.6 6.9 11.7
Forecast 12.5 12.2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PowerPoint presentations are available for download on our COG Web site:
www.santeelynchescog.org
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