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10/16/07 1
The Scientific and SocialChallenges of Global Warming
Jeffrey T. KiehlClimate Change Research Section
National Center for AtmosphericResearch
jtkon@ucar.edu
10/16/07 2
Outline
• History of climate change science• How has the climate changed?• How will the climate change?• How are we involved in the change?• How to communicate information to the
public?
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History of Climate Change Science
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Joseph Fourier
• Asked: Whatdetermines thetemperature ofEarth?
• 1824 & 1827 worksnoting thatatmosphere keepsEarth warm
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The Greenhouse Effect
T
10/16/07 6
The Greenhouse Effect
T
10/16/07 7
John Tyndall
• In 1860s measuredwhat gases absorbthermal radiation
• Found that watervapor and carbondioxide are majorabsorbers
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The Greenhouse Effect
T T
10/16/07 9
Svante Arrhenius
• In 1896 noted thatindustrial input ofcarbon dioxidewould build up
• Calculated Earthwould warm by 4 °Cfor a doubling ofcarbon dioxide
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Dave Keeling
• In 1950s to presentKeeling measuredthe increase incarbon dioxide inEarth’s atmosphere
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The Keeling Curve
10/16/07 12Zfacts web site
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IPCC(2007)
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How has the climate changed?
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What is Changing?
• Temperature (increase)• Rainfall (increased intensity)• Snow cover (decrease)• Sea ice cover (decrease)• Ocean heat (increase)• Ocean acidity (increase)• Sea Level (increase)• Glacial coverage (decrease)• Ecosystems (decrease/shifts)
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Ammann et al. (2006)
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Ammann et al. (2006)
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IPCC Temperature Trends
IPCC (2007)
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IPCC (2007)
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Nghiem et al. (2007)
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Russell & Steffen (CU CIRES)
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How will the climate change?
10/16/07 23IPCC (2007)
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0
5
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1 5
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0
Comparison of Greenhouse Gas ProjectionsAgainst Geologic History of Global Temperatures
Glob. Temp. Change
IPCC 2100
Maximum Emission Scenario
Glo
ba
l T
emp
era
ture
Ch
an
ge
fro
m P
rese
nt
(°C
)
Glo
ba
l Tem
pera
ture C
ha
ng
e from
Presen
t (°F)
Age (Millions of Years Ago)
(AD 2200-2300?)
High
Climate
Sensitivity
Low
Climate
Sensitivity
(Geol. Data)
(No Arctic/Greenland
ice, small Antarctic
Ice Sheet)
(Low, Middle, High)
PastPresent
Crowley(2001)
Where we are heading
Change in Temperature from Present
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September Sea Ice Conditions
ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean
• Gradual forcing resultsin abrupt ice transitions
• From 80 to 20% extentin 10 years.
• Winter maximum shows• Smaller, more gradual
decreases
“Abrupt”transition
(Holland et al., 2006)
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Chapter 11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
US Regional Temperature IncreaseIPCC(2007)
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US South WestIs the current drought just the start?
20th century 21st century
Seager et al. 2007
IPCC Distribution Multi-Model Outlook:
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How are we involved in the change?
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Human Factors Contributingto Global Warming
• Growth in Population• Growth in Demand for Energy• Changes in Technology• Changes in Consumption
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US is 5% of global population,but 25% of global emissions
Carbon_Emission_by_Regionhttp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon_Emission_by_Region.png
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EnvironmentHumans
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Leiserowitz(2004)
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Given all of this scientific information,why has little been done to address theproblem of global climate change?
• How public values the environment• Ineffective communication of information• Special interests distortion of information• Reluctance of public to accept information
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Valuing the Environment
• Utilitarian value– What nature can provide for us
• Intrinsic value– Inherent value in nature independent of us
• Type of value determines our way ofrelating to the environment
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Values Behaviors
Beliefs
SocialNorms
Information
{Science, Education, Media, IT}
{Social Constructs, Political Systems, Economic System}
{Religious Systems, Family Systems, Personality Structure}
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10/16/07 37Leiserowtiz (2005)
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How to CommunicateInformation to the Public?
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Communication Challenges(How to Deliver Information)
• What is the Role of Affect in Conveyingthe Message?
• Is Information by Itself Enough?• How Can the Message be Better
Delivered?
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The Role of Affect inConveying Information
• Tendency to defend against depressingnews (Negative effect)
• What has been missing to date is theneglect of affect of information (Positiveeffect)
Moser (2007)
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Mechanisms to Deal withAffects
• Denial of threat• Belief problem won’t
effect me• Projection of
responsibility ontosomeone else
• Fatalism
• Wishful thinking orrationalization
• Refusal to change• Uncertainty trap• Displacement of
attention to otherissues
• Numbing (Apathy)Moser (2007)
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Is Information Enough?• Existing belief that information is sufficient to change
attitudes and behaviors• But information is not enough to change attitudes• Importance of:
– Who is delivering the information?– How is the information delivered?
• “The most important thing to know for motivatingbehavior is your audience’s beliefs and values”
Chess & Johnson (2007)
10/16/07 43
Culture & Information• Issue Cultures: Social problems that
become a concern for society (e.g. 9/11& security)
• Bridging Metaphors: Scientific ideas areencoded in a distinct language thatneed to be decoded for the public
• Cultural Whirlwinds: Rapidly evolvingsequences of events that create avortex
Ungar (2007)
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ScientificObservations
TheoryModels
Affect LadenMetaphors
NarrativesPublic
Awareness
ValueSystems
Information Transformation
Behavior
10/16/07 45
Without deep reflection, we have taken on the story of endings, assumed the story of extinction… We need new stories…a new narrative that would imagine another way, to learn the infinite mystery and movement at work in the world.
Linda Hogan
10/16/07 46
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