the rise of the megalopolis · 2016-12-19 · the rise of the megalopolis. r.c. “rick” mobley,...
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THE RISE OF THE MEGALOPOLISR.C. “RICK” MOBLEY, ASLA, AICP, FITE REGIONAL DIRECTOR OF TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AT RS&H
MEGALOPOLISA VERY LARGE, HEAVILY POPULATED CITY OR URBAN COMPLEX
Snapshot» Global Trends» US Trends
» Texas Trends» Demographic Trends» Questions and Discussions
GLOBAL TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
World Population Reached 7.3 Billion by Mid 2015Asia22%
Africa12%
Europe18%
Latin America and Caribbean
23%
North America and Oceania
25%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Population by Age Group» More than half of the population
is between the ages of 15 and 59 <15 yrs26%
15-59 yrs62%
>60 yrs12%
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Population by Year & Group» As the world population
increases, trends indicate the urban population will continue to increase, reaching over 6 billion by 2050
» The rural population peaks in 2030
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
World World Urban World Rural
POPU
LATI
ON
IN B
ILLI
ON
S
19501970199020302050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Population by Group» Although the population
will continue to increase, data shows population growth has slowed since 1970 and will continue to slow until 2050
» Data shows the world rural population will experience a decline starting in 2030
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
World World Urban World Rural
AVG
ANN
UAL
RATE
OF
CHAN
GE
1950-19701970-19901990-20142014-20302030-2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World population
growth is slowing down190% 183%
129%
94%
63%
1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Urban Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World urban population
growth is slowing down 296%263%
221%
166%
113%
1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
World Rural Population Average Annual Rate of Change by Group» World rural population
is declining137% 130%
43%
1%
-23%
1950-1970 1970-1990 1990-2014 2014-2030 2030-2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
UNITED STATES TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
US Population by Year» The US population is
increasing and will reach an estimated 389 Million by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
United States
POPU
LATI
ON
IN M
ILLI
ON
S
19501970199020302050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
US Population Density by Year» The US population
density will increase to an estimated 43 persons per square mile by 2050
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
United States
DEN
SITY
(PER
SON
S PE
R SQ
UARE
MIL
E)
19501970199020302050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
Urbanization Trends» Urbanization in the
US is increasing
64%
36%
81%
19%
87%
13%
Urban Rural
1950 2014 2050
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects
What is Urbanization?» The migration from rural areas to urban areas» Absolute growth in the urban area (urban growth)» Urban growth that is faster than rural growth
Source: US Census Bureau
What is an Urban Area?» The US Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas
1. Urban Cluster: Densely settled territory with 2,500-50,000 inhabitants
2. Urbanized Area: Densely settled territory with 50,000 inhabitants or more
Source: US Census Bureau
Source: Herald Sun | Melbourne, Australia
Are we thinking about this all wrong ??» “We think urban planning ..focuses on making dense cities denser,
where the minority of the worlds population wants to live”– Alan Berger MIT
» “only one in eight urban dwellers worldwide live in dense mega cities”– United Nations report
» “we're looking and focusing on cities….take all the cities in the world, you could fill up India. My question is, what about the rest ?
– Pierre Belanger – Harvard Graduate School of Design
Where Most of Humanity Lives: Half lives in the black space and the other half in the yellow
Produced by data-viz blogger Max Galka, this map was generated using statistics compiled by a NASA research unit.
The Emerging Megaregions
Urbanized Areas & Urban Clusters
Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program
Ten Most Populous Urbanized Areas
Source: US Census Bureau – 2010 Census Urban Area Delineation Program
The Five States with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2014 to July 1, 2015
107,185
117,728
352,527
365,703
490,036
Washington
Georgia
California
Florida
Texas
Source: US Census Bureau – News Release , Number: CB16-43 | December 22, 2015
TEXAS TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
Texas in 2010
» Houston» DFW» San Antonio» Austin
Texas Population Projections by Year» Projections indicate the
population in Texas will reach 40.5 Million by 2050
28.80
40.50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Texas
POPU
LATI
ON
IN M
ILLI
ON
S
2020203020402050
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Projected Percent Change from 2010» 61% increase in
population from 2010 to 2050
14.59
29.96
45.36
61.07
2010-2020 2010-2030 2010-2040 2010-2050
PERC
ENT
CHAN
GE (%
)
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Four Texas Metro Areas Collectively Add More than 400,000 People in the Last Year – Census Bureau Reports
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Projected Geographic Distribution of the Population
» Growth in the majority of Texas counties
» Especially in suburban counties that surround large urban centers AND counties along the southern border
Source: US Census Bureau – Texas Population Projections, 2010 to 2050
Percent population change in Texas counties, 2010 to 20500.5 migration scenario
The New Suburbia» Flexible densities» Mix of uses. Live, work, play.» Self Contained» Connections to Center City» Affordable
Formation of Megalopolises» As urbanized areas expand and
urban clusters increase, they begin to merge with each other to create a megalopolis
Megalopolises of the future
Source: Future of Suburbia | MIT Center for Advanced Urbanism
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS|POPULATION|URBANIZATION|
Demographic Changes» Older population
» Young professionals
» Empty nesters
» Solopreneurs
» Cultural diversity
» Demand for modal choices
New Millennial Mindset» Generation’s homebuyers are drawn
to suburbs with aspects of city living» 35% of the homebuyers are
millennials» Cost and proximity to work are factors» 17% of home purchases are located
within an urban area or central city» National Association of Realtors found
more than ½ of millennials buying houses are choosing the suburbs
Source: Houston Chronicle | Tuesday March 29, 2016
Changes in Development Patterns» Re-densification» Livable centers
» Mixed uses» Refocus on transit» Walkable, bikeable communities
Denser Urban Environments» Lower auto ownership
» Higher transit ridership
» Mixed uses for live/work/play environments
» More multi-modal opportunities
» Escapees from the city
Denser Urban Environments
Denser Sub-Urban Environments» Homebuyers move farther from city
center amid rising home prices» In Austin, the median home sold in
2011 was 13.2 miles from the city center, and 14.8 miles in 2015
» In Houston, the median home sold in 2015 was 20.6 miles from the urban core, increasing 5.6% since 2011
» National median price per square foot in 2015 was $284 in urban centers vs. $148 in non-urban centers
Source: Austin Business Journal| Friday March 25, 2016
Different Work Environments» Satellite offices» Work form home» Virtual offices
» Shared work spaces» Community work spaces
(collaboration spaces)
Different Retail Experiences» Big – Boxalypse» Corner stores and
support retail» Show rooms» On line shopping» Front door delivery
So How Do We Respond ?» Take advantage of technology and implement TDM and TSM
techniques across all modes» Emphasize Shared Use Facilities (roads, sidewalks, parking)» Take advantage of transit development and become more
multi-modal in approach to solutions» Recognize needs of different users and respond appropriately
in providing transportation solutions
So the theory is…» Urbanization will continue with a mix of users in the center cities and highly
urbanized areas including boomers, genX and Y’ers as well as millennials.» The phenomena of escapees and soltrepenures will continue as the population ages.» Suburbanization will continue – but it must take on a new form – not just the typical
bedroom community.» As suburban centers become more self contained the city center and traditional core
will have less importance, except for major cultural activities and sporting events.» Transportation as we know it will change. Less need to connect to city center. More
needs internally for the new suburbia. New interconnections with multi node cities as well as between cities.
» The Megalopolis will be our future. We must change our thinking about transportation out to the new horizon years of 2050 and beyond.
QUESTIONS AND DISCUSSION
Community Evolution» Early circulation concepts
– Historical circulation systems– American circulation systems
» Community pattern– Early forms– Mass transportation– Automotive transportation– Community shape– Future patterns
Community Evolution (cont’d.)» Growth trends
– Population trends– Employment distribution– Travel trends
Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven on All Roads
Estimated Vehicle Miles Driven and Gasoline Prices
Human Mobility» People and goods» Auto» Truck» Rail» Air
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