the psychology of biases

The Psychology of Biases Why Some Folks Are Averse to Better Development Practices

Stephen Ritchie15-Apr-2014

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Warm Up

• Three Clues–Handouts–Two Secret Clues–Third Clue in the Slides

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Warm Up

• Third clue:– One word answer– Begins with “H”– Ends with “y”

• Once the question is asked, quickly write down your one word answer.

• Stand up once you have the answer.

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Warm Up

What one word best describes how she was feeling just before Mary had a little lamb?

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Warm Up

What are your answers?

Happy

Hungry

Hostility

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Definition

Cognitive Bias

Own “subjective reality” from their perception of input

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Personal Story

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Personal Story

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Cognitive Bias

SemmelweisReflex

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Meet the man …

Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.

Obstetrician

Young

Vienna

1846

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Problem: Childbed Fever

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Mother’s Mortality Rate

Up To 30%

Semmelweis’ Hospital

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Mother’s Morality Rate

More Moderate

7.5%

Neighboring Hospital

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Scientific Method

Q: Why the difference?

Hypothesis

Experiment Conclusion

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Hypothesis

Between the morgue…

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Hypothesis

And the delivery room…

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Hypothesis

Disinfect!

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Mother’s Mortality Rate

Mortality Rate Dropped

Under 1%

Semmelweis’ Results

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Conclusion

Lack of Cleanliness

Caused Death

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Headline

1847: PhysicianMakes Amazing Discovery

Easy to implement, easily proven, and clearly saves lives.

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Why has nobody ever heard of him?

Dr. Semmelweis, M.D.

Who?Semmel

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Semmelweis’ Approach

ConventionalWisdom

Challenged

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Contemporaries’ Beliefs

Hippocrates4 Humours

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Reaction

Rejection

Criticism

Scorn

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Definition

Semmelweis Reflex

Reject new evidencethat contradicts

established beliefs

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Preaching Heresy

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Test-Driven Development

Test

CodeRefactor

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Confound Your Logic, Mr. Spock!

LogicalSequentialRationalAnalytical

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No Silver Bullet

FaultDefectWrongSolution

Avoid

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Focus On The Pain

Pain PointsAdaptations

Experiments

Results Outcomes

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Doctor McDreamy

Understanding

Gentle

Helpful

Intuitive

Patient

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Epilogue

So, whateverbecame of

Dr. Semmelweis?

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Lured To An Asylum …

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Put in a straightjacket …

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Honored Posthumously

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Don’t Be Like Semmelweis

InsistenceAvoid:

ObsessionArrogance

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Relax, Have Fun Wit It

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Cognitive Bias

NormalcyBias

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Tornado Alley

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How many tornado shelters in “Tornado Alley”?

Oklahoma

Percentage of homes with storm shelters?

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Surprisingly

In the Oklahoma City area, perhaps 10 to 20 percent of homes have

some kind of formal shelter.

Most houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013

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Surprisingly

“Unfortunately, people prefer homes with swimming

pools rather than storm shelters,” said Oklahoma State Representative Joe

DormanMost houses and public buildings in ‘Tornado Alley’ lack storm shelters, by Agence France-Presse. May 22, 2013

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Definition

Normalcy Bias

Underestimate both the possibility and

effects of a disaster

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With a name like Target, are we surprised?

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Security Development Lifecycle

Security & PrivacyRisk AssessmentsStatic Analysis

Incident ResponseFuzz Testing

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SDL Implementation

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Six Sigma

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Cognitive Bias

Ambiguity Effect

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OCR

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Punch Card

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Tried and True

“… it would be excessively costly to IBM to quickly introduce more modern

machinery using electronics and magnetic tape instead of

relays and punched cards.”

From Tabulators to Early Computers in the U.S. Life Insurance Industry: Co-evolution and Continuities, JoAnne Yates, October 1993, CCS WP #153, Sloan School WP #3618-93

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Definition

Ambiguity EffectFavor an option

where the outcome is known over one where the outcome

is unknown

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Exercise

• On your index card• Write 3 specific examples• Organizations pick development

patterns and practices that are– “old and adequate” over “new and

better”– “tried and true” over “possibly better”– “always done it” over “unprecedented”

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Why did we decide to go with …

Automated Testing

Manual Testing

over

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Why did we decide to go with …

Automated Builds

Manual Builds

over

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Why did we decide to go with …

Scripts

Manual Configuration

over

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Why did we decide to go with …

Continuous Integration

Final Integration

over

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Knowledge, Skill, and Attitude

What to doBarriers

How to do itWhy to do it

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Training, Coaching, and Practice

Short tutorialTrial periodTraining course

Measure valueEmbed a coach

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Cognitive Bias

Dunning-Kruger Effect

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Definition

Dunning-Kruger Effect

Some people can wildly overestimate their relative competence

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I want to be a lion tamer!

Monty Python - Vocational Guidance Counselor sketch

http://youtu.be/4h-wVe9a6rQ?t=1m6s

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Definition

Dunning-Kruger EffectPeople with true ability

can tend to underestimate their relative competence

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Let’s switch to NoSQL

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Uninitiated

Easy conceptInflated experts

Not yet challenged

Lack experience

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Knowledge Transfer, Experience, and Expertise

Patience & wisdomProof-of-conceptKnowledge transfer

Know-howExperience

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We are all individuals. (I’m not!)

“In a very real sense there is no such thing as

organizational behavior. There is only individual

behavior. Everything else flows out of that.”

Principle-Centered Leadership, Stephen Covey

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• Stephen Ritchie• Excella Consulting

– .NET developer– “Best Practices”– Training agile eng– ScrumMaster/coach

• stephen.ritchie@excella.com

• http://www.linkedin.com/in/sritchie

• @ruthlesshelp• Organizer DC Alt.NET

Shameless Self Promotion

http://amzn.to/v8TD8E