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“The Potential of Decentralized Photovoltaic Applications in Egypt - Technical and
Economic Analysis”
By:
Karim Emam
Under the Supervision of:
Prof. Dr. Dirk Dahlhaus
Prof. Dr. Hany Elghazaly
Dr. Christoph Kost
13/7/2016 1Master Thesis - Karim Emam
Outlines
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Performance and Economic Model Indicators
4. Literature Review
5. Application (1): Roof-Top PV System for an On-Grid Villa
6. Application (2): PV-Diesel Hybrid System for an Off-Grid Hotel
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
8. References
13/7/2016 2Master Thesis - Karim Emam
1. Introduction: Thesis Scope and Motivation
• Scope of Thesis Research Work:– Identifying the electricity consumption purposes that have a promising
potential towards the implementation of decentralized photovoltaicapplications.
– Assessment of the implementation potential of these promisingapplications through a technical and economic analysis.
– Developing an excel-sheet tool to calculate the performance andeconomic model indicators.
• Motivation:– Addressed country: Egypt (as a developing country example)
– Addressed RE technology: Photovoltaic technology
– Addressed applications: Decentralized photovoltaic applications
13/7/2016 3Master Thesis - Karim Emam
1. Introduction: Examples of Decentralized Photovoltaic Applications
• Supermarket:
• Quick Service
Restaurant:
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Hour of the Day
Load Power Generated by PV System
Power Fed to Grid (No Self Consumption) Residual Load
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Hour of the DayLoad Power Generated by PV System
Power Fed to Grid (No Self Consumption) Residual Load
2. Methodology
• Data Collection:– Through literature review
– Through phone calls
– Through the used tools (databases)
• Performance Model:– SAM performance model
– Self developed power flow tool (excel-sheet)
• Economic Model:– Self-developed economic tool (excel-sheet)
• Implementation Potential Assessment of Decentralized Photovoltaic Applications:– Application selection criteria
– Ranking of electricity consumption purposes potential
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2. Methodology: Performance and Economic Model Simplified Approach Overview
• Performance Model Simplified Approach:
• Economic Model Simplified Approach:
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Load Demand PV System Sizing
PV Generated Power from the SAM Tool
+
Saved Energy or Power Fed to Grid
from the Self Developed Power
Flow Tool
Performance Model Indicators
Energy Savings or Revenues
+Economic Inputs
Cash FlowEconomic Model
Indicators
2. Methodology: Implementation Potential Assessment of Decentralized Photovoltaic Applications
• Application Selection Criteria:1. Degree of application commercialization
2. Degree of economic competitiveness
3. Degree of dependence on a vulnerable energy supply
4. Degree of fulfillment to the PV system requirements
• Ranking of Electricity Consumption Purposes Potential:– On-Grid:
1. Heavy residential
2. Heavy commercial
3. Industrial
4. Agriculture (irrigation)
– Off-Grid:1. Petroleum and mining
2. Tourism (hotels)
3. Agriculture (irrigation)
4. Remote communities/rural electrification
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3. Performance Model Indicators
• Capacity Factor (CF):
• Specific Annual Yield (SAY):
• Performance Ratio (PR):
Source: (NREL, 2015)
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3. Economic Model Indicators
• Net Present Value (NPV):
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR):
• Simple Payback Period (SPB):
• Discounted Payback Period (DPB):
• Nominal Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOEnominal):
• Real Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOEreal):
Source: (Short, Packey, & Holt, 2010)13/7/2016 9Master Thesis - Karim Emam
4. Literature Review: Socio-Economic Comparison between Egypt and South Africa (as Examples of Developing Countries)
Source: (CIA, 2016) and (IEA, 2012)13/7/2016 10Master Thesis - Karim Emam
Egypt South Africa
National Flag
Continent Africa Africa
Major Urban Areas – Inhabitants (Millions) Cairo – 18.8 Johannesburg – 9.4
Land Area (km2) 1,001, 450 1,219,090
Population - 2014 Est. (Millions) 88.4 54.9
Unemployment Rate - 2015 Est. (%) 12.88% 25.37%
Illiteracy Rate (%) 26.2% 5.7%
Electrification Rate - 2015 (%) 99.6% 85%
Inflation Rate - 2015 Est. (%) 11% 4.59%
National Currency Egyptian Pound South African Rand
Nominal GDP – 2015 Est. (USD) 330.8 312.9
GDP – Real Growth Rate (%) 4.2% 1.3%
GDP –PPP per capita - 2015 Est. (USD) 11,850 13,165
Exchange Rate – 2015 Est. (National
Currency/USD)
7.72 12.76
4. Literature Review: Growth of Electricity Generation Installed Capacity in Egypt• Power Plants Connected to
the National Electricity Grid:– The total installed capacity in 2014
was about 32 GW.– Thermal Power plants constitutes
around 90% of the total electricity generation installed capacity.
• Renewable Energy Installed Capacity Growth till April 2016:– Hydro power plants constitutes
around 80% of the total renewable energy installed capacity.
– The solar PV installed capacity has risen to 45 MW (less than 1.3% of thetotal renewable energy installed capacity).
Source: (EEHC, 2014), (EEHC, 2008) and (Whiteman, Rinke, Esparrago, & Elsayed, 2016)
13/7/2016 11Master Thesis - Karim Emam
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
Pe
ak L
oad
(M
W)
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
Fiscal YearSteam Combined Cycle GasHydropower Wind Power CSPPeak Load
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(MW
)
Year
Hydro Power Wind Energy Solar PV CSP
4. Literature Review: Global Solar Energy Potential & Regional Installed Capacity of Solar PV
• Global Solar Energy Potential:– Egypt -as the majority of
developing and emerging countries- is located withinthe sunbelt region.
• Regional Installed Capacity of Solar PV (in Africa and the Middle East):– Egypt is ranked seventh.
Source: (CEOS, 2011) and (Whiteman, Rinke, Esparrago, & Elsayed, 2016)
13/7/2016 12Master Thesis - Karim Emam
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
Year
South Africa Israel Algeria TurkeyU.A.E Jordan Egypt K.S.AKenya Uganda
5. Application (1): Villa Brief Description
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Brief Data about the Villa-(1)
Location
Region Sheikh Zayed – 6 of October City
Governorate Giza
Latitude 30.05oN
Longitude 30.85oE
Elevation (m) 153
Solar Radiation & Weather Data
Global Horizontal Irradiance (kWh/m2/day) 5.54
Direct Normal (Beam) Irradiance
(kWh/m2/day)
5.69
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (kWh/m2/day) 1.89
Average Ambient Temperature (oC) 22
Average Wind Speed (m/s) 3.5
Brief Data about the Villa-(2)
Hotel Capacity & Loads
Number of Floors 2
Number of Swimming
Pools
one
Heavy Electric loads Electric water heaters, air
conditioning
Energy Consumption and Bills
Electricity Consumption (kWh/year) 25,934.52
Highest Monthly Consumption (kWh/month) 3,273
Hot Summer Electricity Bill (EGP./month) 2,360
5. Application (1): PV System Sizing and Configuration
• PV System Sizing Conditions:– Matching with load demand profile-(covering minimum noon time load)
– Connection to the existing power supply lines (3L-N)
– Specific price per kWp – (especially for feed to grid purpose)
– Compliance with the Egyptian regulations (minimum system sizing requirement)
• PV System Configuration:
Source: (EgyptERA, 2014) and (Gridconnectedinverter, n.d.)
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5. Application (1): Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile
• Application Purpose: Self Consumption and Feed into Grid:– Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile in a Cold Winter Week
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4Ele
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(kW
)
Hour of the Week
Load Power Generated by PV System Power Fed to Grid (No Self Consumption) Residual Load
5. Application (1): Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile
• Application Purpose: Self Consumption and Feed into Grid:– Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile in a Hot Summer Week
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Hour of the Week
Load Power Generated by PV System Power Fed to Grid (No Self Consumption) Residual Load
5. Application (1): Performance Analysis Results
13/7/2016 17Master Thesis - Karim Emam
Performance Indicator PV System(1)-5kWp PV System(2)-7 kWp PV System (3)-10kWp
Capacity Factor (%) 19.8% 18.7% 19.8%
Performance Ratio 0.78 0.77 0.78
Specific Annual Yield in
First Year (kWh/kWp)
1738.1 1636 1737.74
PV Generated Energy
share of First Year Energy
Consumption (%)
28% 33.2% 38.2%
Percentage of the Lost
Energy -Fed to the Grid
without Remuneration -
(%)
15.3% 28.4% 43.4%
5. Application (1): Economic Analysis Results
• Self-Consumption Purpose:
• Feed into Grid Purpose:
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Economic Indicator System(1)–5 kWp System(2)–7 kWp System(3)–10 kWp
NPV (EGP) 44,024.3 48,441.1 35,453.3
IRR (%) 14.89% 14.35% 12.81%
Simple PB (Year) 9.83 10.27 11.48
Discounted PB (Year) 16.71 17.67 20.51
Nominal LCOE (EGP/kWh) 1.65 1.49 1.36
Real LCOE (Egyptian pt./kWh) 64.7 58.48 53.59
Economic Indicator System(1)–5 kWp System(2)–7 kWp System(3)–10 kWp
NPV (EGP) -55,691 -62,637.2 -73,457.6
IRR (%) N/A N/A N/A
Simple PB (Year) N/A N/A N/A
Discounted PB (Year) N/A N/A N/A
Nominal LCOE (EGP/kWh) 1.66 1.5 1.37
Real LCOE (Egyptian pt./kWh) 65.13 58.78 53.81
5. Application (1): Sensitivity Analysis
• OPEX Sensitivity:– Breakeven point=5%
• Discount Rate Sensitivity:– Breakeven point=14.89%
• Rise Rate of Electricity Tariff Sensitivity:– Breakeven point=-25.3%
13/7/2016 19Master Thesis - Karim Emam
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
-EGP 10,000
EGP 0
EGP 10,000
EGP 20,000
EGP 30,000
EGP 40,000
EGP 50,000
2.0% 2.8% 3.6% 4.4% 5.2% Inte
rnal
Rat
e o
f R
etu
rn
(%)
Ne
t P
rese
nt
Val
ue
(EG
P)
OPEX Rate Percentage(%)
NPV IRR Discount Rate
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
-EGP 20,000
-EGP 10,000
EGP 0
EGP 10,000
EGP 20,000
EGP 30,000
EGP 40,000
EGP 50,000
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%
IRR
an
d D
isco
un
t R
ate
(%
)
Ne
t P
rese
nt
Val
ue
(EG
P)
Percentage Change of Discount Rate (%)
NPV IRR Discount Rate
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-EGP 20,000
-EGP 10,000
EGP 0
EGP 10,000
EGP 20,000
EGP 30,000
EGP 40,000
EGP 50,000
0% -7% -14% -21% -28% -35%
IRR
an
d D
isco
un
t R
ate
(%
)
Ne
t P
rese
nt
Val
ue
(EG
P)
Percentage Change of Electricity Tariff (%)
NPV IRR Discount Rate
5. Application (1): FiT Scheme Adjusted Scenario
• Scenario Principal Conditions:– Offering a lower rate of tariff rise than that endured by the Egyptian government.
– Achieving a maximum IRR (best case through the optimum PV system size) lower than thatachieved by the self-consumption of optimum PV system size (worst case).
– Achieving a maximum IRR (for the best case) higher than that obtained by the bank risk-free investment certificates (10.75%).
There after, The proposed scenario is based on a remuneration tariff of 0.68 EGP/kWh
and a tariff rise rate per annum of 11.5%.
• Economic Results Achieved through the Proposed Scenario:
13/7/2016 20Master Thesis - Karim Emam
Economic Indicator System (1)–5 kWp System(2)–7kWp System(3)–10kWp
NPV (EGP) 13,793.238 34,812.6 68,324.541
IRR (%) 12.214% 13.556% 14.753%
Simple PB (Year) 11.352 10.379 9.6
Discounted PB (Year) 21.37 18.63 16.58
Nominal LCOE (EGP/kWh) 1.66 1.5 1.37
Real LCOE (Egyptian pt./kWh) 65.13 58.79 53.81
6. Application (2): Hotel Brief Description
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Brief Data about the Hotel - (1)
Location
Region Marsa Alam
Governorate Red Sea
Latitude 25.055oN
Longitude 34.889oE
Elevation (m) 76
Solar Radiation & Weather Data
Global Horizontal Irradiance (kWh/m2/day) 6.29
Direct Normal (Beam) Irradiance
(kWh/m2/day)
7.1
Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (kWh/m2/day) 1.59
Average Ambient Temperature (oC) 24.9Average Wind Speed (m/s) 3
Brief Data about the Hotel - (2)Hotel Capacity & Facilities
Number of Rooms 331
Number of Restaurants five
Number of Swimming
Pools
Three
Other Facilities Gym, Diving center, Private beach
Energy Consumption
Electricity Consumption (kWh/year) 7,088,506
Diesel Consumption (liter/year) 1,852,619
6. Application (2): Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile
• Application Purpose: Self Consumption – High Solar Fraction:– Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile in a Cold Winter Week
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ctri
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ow
er
(kW
)
Hour of the Week
Load Power Generated by PV System Residual Load
6. Application (2): Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile
• Application Purpose: Self Consumption – High Solar Fraction:– Load Demand and Solar Energy Profile in a Hot Summer Week
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ctri
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ow
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)
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Load Power Generated by PV System Residual Load
6. Application (2): PV System Sizing and Configuration
• Sizing Conditions:– Fulfilling 30% of the noon time load demand ( LSF purpose).
– Fulfilling 60% of the noon time load demand (HSF purpose).
– Minimum Spinning reserve constraint (20%-30% of the total connected generators installed capacity).
– Minimum Generator loading constraint (30% of the total connected generators installed capacity).
– No excess (wasted) energy above the allocated PV penetration permissible (30% or 60%)
Source: (SMA, 2013) and (SMA, 2015)
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6. Application (2): Performance Analysis Results
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Performance Parameter Low Solar Fraction -
170 kWp
High solar Fraction –
345 kWp
Capacity Factor (%) 21.6% 21.6%
Performance Ratio 0.76 0.76
Specific Annual Yield in First
Year (kWh/kWp)
1892 1,889
PV Energy share of First Year
Energy Consumption (%)
4.52% 9.18%
Percentage of Solar Energy
Lost -(%)
0% 0%
6. Application (2): Economic Analysis Results
Low Solar Fraction Purpose:
High Solar Fraction Purpose:
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Parameter Value
NPV (EGP) 1,038,501.2
IRR (%) 15.21%
Simple PB (Year) 11.28
Discounted PB (Year) 17.19
Nominal LCOE (EGP/kWh) 2.00
Real LCOE (Egyptian pt./kWh) 76.64
Parameter Value
NPV (EGP) 1,966,612.8
IRR (%) 15.02%
Simple PB (Year) 11.39
Discounted PB (Year) 17.46
Nominal LCOE (EGP/kWh) 2.06
Real LCOE (Egyptian pt./kWh) 78.83
6. Application (2): Sensitivity Analysis
OPEX Sensitivity:Breakeven point (LSF)= 4.30%
Breakeven point (HSF)= 4.16%
Discount Rate Sensitivity:Breakeven point (LSF)= 15.21%
Breakeven point (HSF)= 15.02%
Rise Rate of Diesel Price Sensitivity:Breakeven point (LSF)=10.30%
Breakeven point (HSF)=10.42%
13/7/2016 27Master Thesis - Karim Emam
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 5.00%
No
min
al D
isco
un
t R
ate
, W
AC
C,
IRR
-LSF
an
d IR
R-
HSF
(%
)
OPEX Percentage (%)
Discount Rate WACC IRR-LSF IRR-HSF
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0% 14% 28% 42% 56%
No
min
al D
isco
un
t R
ate
, W
AC
C,
IRR
-LSF
an
d IR
R-H
SF
(%)
Percentage Change of the Nominal Discount Rate (%)
Discount Rate WACC
IRR-LSF IRR-HSF
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
9.75% 10.22% 10.68% 11.15% 11.61%
No
min
al D
isco
un
t R
ate
, W
AC
C,
IRR
-LSF
an
d IR
R-H
SF
(%)
Rise Rate of Diesel Price (%)
Discount Rate WACC IRR-LSF IRR-HSF
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
Conclusion:1. Grid Parity have been reached at least for the highest two
consumption slabs of residential and commercial users.
2. Feed into grid purpose through the current FiT scheme (with a fixedremuneration in Egyptian currency) is not feasible.
3. Self consumption purpose for the off-grid touristic hotels and otheroff-grid applications depending on diesel generators through PV-Diesel hybrid systems have a high promising PV potential.
4. LCOE(real) for residential applications was in range of 53.6 to 65.1Egyptian pt./kWh (below consumption tariff of slab-6). While, it wasfor the off-grid hotel application in range of 76.6 to 78.8 Egyptianpt./kWh.
5. An adjusted FiT scheme was elaborated and showed a satisfactoryeconomic results on the light of the proposed conditions. It basicallydepend on a tariff of 0.68 EGP/kWh and an annual rate of tariff riseequals to 11.5%. It achieved an acceptable IRR value of 14.75%.
13/7/2016 28Master Thesis - Karim Emam
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
Conclusion (Continued):
6. IRR for residential–self consumption applications can reach up to14.89%. (39% higher than the bank’s interest ). While, it was for theoff-grid hotel application in range of 15% to 15.2%. But such a highIRR rate is burdened by the financing costs for the off-grid hotelapplication.
7. Developing countries in general are having a promising solar PVpotential. As have been investigated that the top six countries in theannual installations growth rate were including five developingcountries and emerging economies. Egypt -indeed- is expected tohave a PV installed capacity of 2.3 GW by 2018.
13/7/2016 29Master Thesis - Karim Emam
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
Recommendations:
1. Adopting public awareness campaigns about the benefits of self-consumption using solar PV systems.
2. Revising the issued FiT scheme for systems with an installed capacitybelow 500 kWp.
3. Re-activation of the net-metering policy.
4. Activation of the soft loan concession that have been previouslyannounced within the FiT scheme for systems below 500 kWp(through loan interests of 4% and 8%).
5. Investigating the barriers faced by the PV systems deployment inoff-grid electricity consumers especially the petroleum and miningcompanies.
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8. References
1. CEOS-ESA. (2011). CEOS EO Handbook – Case Studies: Satellite Observations inSupport of Climate Challenges. Retrieved May 17, 2016, from The Earth ObservationHandbook Website: http://www.eohandbook.com/eohb2011/casestudy_energy.html
2. CIA. (2016). The World Factbook: Egypt. Retrieved July 11, 2016, from The CentralIntelligence Agency Website: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html
3. CIA. (2016). The World Factbook: South Africa. Retrieved July 12, 2016, from TheCentral Intelligence Agency Website: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/sf.html
4. EEHC. (2008). Annual Report (2007/2008). Retrieved July 12, 2016, from Ministry ofElectricity and Renewable Energy Website:
http://www.moee.gov.eg/english_new/EEHC_Rep/2007-2008en.pdf
5. EEHC. (2014). Annual Report (2013/2014). Retrieved July 12, 2016, from Ministry ofElectricity and Renewable Energy:http://www.moee.gov.eg/english_new/EEHC_Rep/REP-EN2013-2014.pdf
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8. References (Continued)
6. EgyptERA. (2014). the Technical Requirements for connection Small-Scale PVsystems to LV Distribution Networks . Retrieved February 20, 2016, from EgyptianElectric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (EgyptERA) Website:http://egyptera.org/Downloads/taka%20gdida/PV-%20LV%20code5.pdf
7. GridConnectedInverter. (n.d.). Grid-Tied, Off-Grid and Hybrid Solar Systems EnergyInformative. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from GridConnectedInverter Website:http://gridconnectedinverter.com/images/Grid-Tied-Off-Grid-and-Hybrid-Solar-Systems-Energy-Informative-203028
8. IEA. (2016). WEO 2015 Electricity Access Database. Retrieved July 12, 2016, fromWorld Energy Outlook Organization Website:
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/WEO2015Electricityaccessdatabase.xlsx
6. PV Magazine . (2016, January 26). Egypt Preps Tender for 30 GW of Energy Projects.Retrieved July 12, 2016, from PV Magazine Website: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/egypt-preps-tender-for-30-gw-of-energy-projects-_100022952/#axzz4E7SOuZkc
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8. References (Continued)
10. NREL. (2015, July 6). System Advisor Model (SAM) - Help. Retrieved February 25,2016, from System Advisor Model (SAM)National Renewable Energy Laboratory :https://sam.nrel.gov/sites/default/files/content/help/sam-help-2015-5-30.pdf
11. Short, W., Packey, D. J., & Holt, T. (2010, May 19). Financial Model Documentation.Retrieved March 15, 2016, from National Renewable Energy Laboratories (NREL):http://www.nrel.gov/docs/legosti/old/5173.pdf
12. SMA. (2013, April). PV-Diesel-Hybrid Systems for Industrial Applications - Why itmakes sense to combine Diesel systems with PV. Retrieved February 19, 2016, fromDeutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) Website:https://www.giz.de/fachexpertise/downloads/giz2013-en-fischmann-pep-workshop-indonesien-pv-hybridsysteme.pdf
13. SMA. (2015). User Manual: SMA Fuel Save Controller 2.0M. Retrieved June 20,2016, from SMA Solar Technology AG: http://files.sma.de/dl/26900/FSC20-BA-en-10.pdf
14. Whiteman, A., Rinke, T., Esparrago, J., & Elsayed, S. (2016). Renewable CapacityStatistics. Retrieved May 10, 2016, from International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA) Website:
http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENA_RE_Capacity_Statistics_2016.pdf
13/7/2016 33Master Thesis - Karim Emam
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Questions and Discussion
Source: (PV Magazine, 2016)
13/7/2016 34Master Thesis - Karim Emam
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