the perfect economic storm

The Perfect Economic Storm

The Perfect Economic Storm

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Figure I

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS GROWTHBY OCCUPATION, 1970-2007

0.14%0.27%

-0.42%

-1.62%-1.48%

-0.11%

0.49%

-0.25%

0.39%

-0.18%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

FIGURE II

AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS “REAL”GROWTHBY OCCUPATION, 1970-2007

FIGURE III

OVERALL AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS GROWTH

DOLLAR VS. “REAL”, 1970-2007

-0.34%

4.26%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

REAL GROWTH, 1.03%

DOLLAR GROWTH, 7.08%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

INCO

ME

GRO

WTH

AVERAGE ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME GROWTH: 1970-2006

FIGURE IV

FIGURE V

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004

LFPR

Women’s Labor Force Participation Rate

FIGURE VI

Men’s Labor Force Participation Rate, 1965-

2007

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82Pe

cent

age

1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005

Year

FIGURE VII

AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS WORKED, U.S.A.

FIGURE VIII

U.S. AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES, 1975-2008

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Thousands of Dollars

FIGURE IX

LONG-TERM MORTGAGE RATES

FIGURE XGROWTH IN HOME PRICES

DROPS INTO NEGATIVE RANGE

FIGURE XI

REAL ESTATE EXCEEDS STOCK’S SHARE OF PERSONAL

WEALTH

FIGURE XIISAVING RATE AS PERCENT OF

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

YEAR

PERC

ENTA

GE

Figure XIIIHOUSEHOLD DEBT AS A

PERCENTAGE OF DISPOSABLE INCOME, 1980-2007

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

PER

CEN

TAG

E

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

YEAR

DEBT SERVICE / INCOME RATIO

FIGURE XIVTHE EXPLOSION IN THE

ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX

FIGURE XV

ENTITLEMENT COMMITMENTS OF

PROJECTED TOTAL FEDERAL REVENUES

FIGURE XVIFALLING TRANSPORTATION COSTS IN INTERNATIONAL

TRADE

FIGURE XVIITHE FALLING COST OF

INTERNATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS

FIGURE XVIIITHE GROWTH IN EMAIL

Financial Intermediaries