the network positions of mrsa risk wards in a hospital system
Post on 07-Apr-2017
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Outbreak R0 Boston, USA (1721) 4.3 Burford (1758) 3.4 Chester (1774) 5.8 Warrington (1773) 4.0-5.3 Paris, France (1766) 4-5 London (1836-1870) ∼ 5 Kosovo (1972) 10.8 Europe (1958-1973) 10-11
Our dataset - 10 years - 308,102 patients - 8,507 wards - 3,185,710 links - 1,261 positive MRSA cases - 21 strains
–7
–6
–5
–3
0.1
10
10
–410
10
10–2
prob
abilit
y de
nsity
, p(k i
n)
100 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
in-degree, kin
10410310210–6
10–5
10–4
10–3
10–2
10–1
1 1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0in-degree
fracti
on of
infec
ted w
ards
prev
alenc
e in
infect
ed w
ards
0.3
0.35
0.4
50 100–50 0–100
coef!
cient
of d
eterm
inatio
n, R
2
"t (days)
outdegee PageRank betweenness weighted betweenness
Summary - Even though the hospital system is
hierarchically organized, the ward network is too random to predict risk wards efficiently.
- In-flow better predictor than static measures.
- There is a detectable response—patients move to low-degree wards.
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