the imperative of adult education for the future of kentucky

Dennis P. Jones

Presented to the

Annual Adult Education ConferenceLouisville, Kentucky

September 19, 2005

National Center for Higher Education Management SystemsP.O. Box 9752 Boulder, Colorado 80301-9752 (303) 497-0301

The Imperative of Adult Education

for the Future of Kentucky

2

Question:

Why Is Adult Education So

Important to the Future of

Kentucky?

3

Simple Answer:

Kentucky Can’t Achieve Its Stated Goal

Without Significantly Increasing the

Education Attainment Levels of

Its Adult Population!

A Reminder:

The Goal Is to Achieve Per Capita Income

Equal to the National Average by 2020.

4

Relationship Between Educational Attainment and

Personal Income by State, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

Per C

apita Inco

me

Percent with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher14.8 33.2

15,853

28,766

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FLGA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MDMA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

TN TX

UT

VT

VA

WV

WI

WY

14.8

15,853

28,766

AL

AK

AZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

FLGA

HI

ID

IL

IN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MDMA

MI

MN

MS

MO

MT

NE

NV

NH

NJ

NM

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

TN TX

UT

VT

VA

WV

WI

WY

R2 = .6348

WA

5

Kentucky Per Capita Income as a Percent of the

U.S., 1960-2000

81%

79%

81%

78%

72%

70%

75%

80%

85%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

6

Per Capita Personal Income—State Values as a Proportion of U.S., 2001

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2003

0

50

100

150

ConnecticutM

assachusettsNew JerseyNew YorkM

arylandNew Ham

pshireColoradoM

innesotaIllinoisCaliforniaDelawareVirginiaW

ashingtonAlaskaPennsylvaniaUnited StatesRhode IslandNevadaM

ichiganW

yoming

Wisconsin

HawaiiFloridaNebraskaO

hioG

eorgiaVerm

ontTexasKansasM

issouriO

regonIndianaNorth CarolinaIowaTennesseeM

aineSouth DakotaNorth DakotaArizonaO

klahoma

KentuckySouth CarolinaIdahoAlabam

aLouisianaUtahM

ontanaNew M

exicoArkansasW

est VirginiaM

ississippi

139.3

100.0

81.8 71.4

7

Relationship Between Educational Attainment and

Health

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; United Health Foundation

State H

ealth In

dex—

Un

ited H

ealth F

ou

nd

ation

Percent of Adults 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

AL

AKAZ

AR

CA

CO

CT

DE

GA

HI

ILIN

IA

KS

KY

LA

ME

MD

MA

MS

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH

OK

ORPA

RI

SC

SD

UT

VT

VA

WA

US

FL

ID

MI

MN

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

WV

WI

WY

-30

-15

0

15

30

10% 20% 30% 40%-

-

R2 = .69

8

Index Scores on State Health Rankings, 2004

25

.02

3.9

22

.81

7.7

17

.61

7.3 15

.81

5.0

14

.41

3.7

13

.2 11

.71

1.6

10

.9 9.1 7

.37

.2 6.4

6.3

5.9 5.2 3

.6 3.0

2.9

2.8 2.1

2.1

2.0 0

.30

.30

.1

-2.0

-2.7 -4

.2 -5.8

-6.6

-7.1

-7.2

-7.5

-8.4 -1

0.4

-10

.4-1

1.1

-12

.1-1

2.9

-13

.1-2

0.2

-21

.3

-0.1

-0.1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Minnesota

New Hampshire

Vermont

HawaiiUtahM

assachusettsNorth DakotaConnecticutW

isconsinM

aineIowaNebraskaColoradoRhode IslandW

ashingtonKansasNew JerseyIdahoSouth DakotaVirginiaO

regonCaliforniaArizonaAlaskaPennsylvaniaM

ontanaO

hioW

yoming

IllinoisM

ichiganNew York

DelawareIndiana

MarylandTexas

Missouri

NevadaNew M

exicoKentucky

Oklahom

aNorth Carolina

FloridaAlabam

aW

est VirginiaG

eorgiaArkansas

South CarolinaTennesseeM

ississippiLouisiana

Kentucky Ranked 39th

Source: United Health Foundation—State Health Rankings 2004

9

The Education Attainment

Picture in Kentucky

10

Educational Attainment and Rank Among

States—Kentucky, 2000 (Percent)

36th

36th

46th

46th

47th

01020304050

Age 25-64 withGraduate/Prof. Degree

Age 25-64 withBachelor's or Higher

Age 25-64 withAssociate Degree

Age 25-64 with HSDiploma

Age 18-24 with HSDiploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census

74.9%

7.5%

79.7%

5.7%

18.8%

11

Percent of Population Age 18-24 with No High School

Diploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

NevadaTexasArizonaG

eorgiaNew M

exicoCaliforniaM

ississippiFloridaAlabam

aLouisianaNorth CarolinaO

regonSouth CarolinaUnited StatesO

klahoma

KentuckyColoradoTennesseeW

ashingtonArkansasIllinoisNew YorkNew JerseyIndianaM

ichiganM

issouriO

hioAlaskaIdahoDelawareNew Ham

pshireConnecticutSouth DakotaW

est VirginiaKansasM

ontanaM

aineW

isconsinW

yoming

Minnesota

VirginiaM

arylandPennsylvaniaNebraskaUtahRhode IslandIowaM

assachusettsVerm

ontNorth DakotaHawaii

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

14.2

25.1

25.3

33.3

12

Percent of Population Age 25 and Older with

No High School Diploma

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

0

10

20

30

11.7

19.6

25.9

27.1

Mississippi

KentuckyLouisianaW

est VirginiaAlabam

aArkansasTexasTennesseeSouth CarolinaCaliforniaRhode IslandNorth CarolinaG

eorgiaNew M

exicoNew YorkFloridaUnited StatesO

klahoma

NevadaArizonaM

issouriIllinoisVirginiaPennsylvaniaNew JerseyIndianaDelawareO

hioM

ichiganM

arylandNorth DakotaConnecticutSouth DakotaHawaiiIdahoM

assachusettsO

regonW

isconsinM

aineKansasIowaVerm

ontNebraskaColoradoW

ashingtonM

ontanaNew Ham

pshireUtahW

yoming

Minnesota

Alaska

13

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or

Higher, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000

Massachusetts

ColoradoConnecticutM

arylandNew JerseyVirginiaVerm

ontNew Ham

pshireM

innesotaNew YorkW

ashingtonIllinoisRhode IslandHawaiiKansasCaliforniaUtahNebraskaO

regonDelawareM

ontanaUnited StatesG

eorgiaNorth DakotaAlaskaPennsylvaniaW

isconsinM

aineArizonaTexasNew M

exicoSouth DakotaM

issouriNorth CarolinaIowaFloridaM

ichiganW

yoming

IdahoO

hioO

klahoma

South CarolinaIndianaTennesseeAlabam

aLouisianaNevadaKentuckyArkansasM

ississippiW

est Virginia

0

10

20

30

40 37.1

16.5

18.8

26.5

14

Bottom Line:

Kentucky Has a Very Large Number of

Undereducated Adults.

435,000 Age 25-64 Had Not Completed

High School—20% of Age Group (2000 Census)

And There Are More on the Way.

15

Student Pipeline, 2002

Source: NCES Common Core Data, NCES IPEDS 2002 Residency and Migration Survey, ACT Institutional Survey, NCES IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey

Of 100 9th Graders, How Many…90.6

61.8

44.2

27.6

68.2

38.6

26.2

17.9

62.3

38.9

25.6

15.3

38.8

26.7

19.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

Graduate from HighSchool

Enter College Enroll SophomoreYear

Graduate Within150% of Program

Time

Age 25-44 withBachelor's Degree

Best Performing StateUnited StatesKentucky

16

High School Graduation Rates—Public High School Graduates

as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2000

New JerseyNorth DakotaUtahNebraskaM

innesotaIowaVerm

ontM

ontanaW

isconsinConnecticutIdahoM

aineW

yoming

PennsylvaniaM

assachusettsW

est VirginiaKansasSouth DakotaNew Ham

pshireVirginiaArkansasM

arylandM

issouriO

klahoma

IllinoisW

ashingtonColoradoO

hioRhode IslandNevadaCaliforniaM

ichiganIndianaO

regonUnited StatesKentuckyHawaiiAlaskaTexasDelawareNew M

exicoArizonaAlabam

aNorth CarolinaNew YorkLouisianaM

ississippiFloridaTennesseeG

eorgiaSouth Carolina

0

30

60

90

86

.1

67

.16

5.8

51

.0

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity

17

Net Migration by Degree Level and Age Group—Kentucky

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census; 5% Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) Files

22- to 29-Year-Olds 30- to 64-Year-Olds

12,798

737

-1,398

870

1,347

4,978

6,264

-3,000 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000

36,101

798

3,489

824

6,364

13,760

10,866

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000

Less than High School

High School

Some College

Associate

Bachelor’s

Graduate/Professional

Total

18

Education and

Workforce Participation

19

Percent of Civilian Population (Age 16 and Older)

Participating in the Workforce, 2003

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

0

20

40

60

80 71

.3

51

.3

62

.3

Minnesota

NebraskaSouth DakotaW

isconsinW

yoming

New Hampshire

North DakotaColoradoVerm

ontIowaUtahAlaskaM

arylandKansasM

issouriG

eorgiaVirginiaIndianaIdahoRhode IslandNevadaM

assachusettsDelawareConnecticutTexasM

aineM

ontanaO

hioHawaiiIllinoisNorth CarolinaUnited StatesNew JerseyPennsylvaniaW

ashingtonO

regonArizonaCaliforniaTennesseeM

ichiganO

klahoma

New Mexico

South CarolinaNew YorkAlabam

aFloridaKentuckyM

ississippiArkansasLouisianaW

est Virginia

58

.2

20

Kentucky Civilians Age 16 and Older in the

Workforce by Education Attainment, 2000

Less than High School

High School Diploma or GED

Some College, No Degree

Associate Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or Professional Degree

In Civilian Workforce Not in Civilian Workforce

Source: Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 5% sample, Minnesota Population Center; www.ipums.org

Number Percent Number Percent

325,002 36.2 571,769 63.8

649,300 64.0 364,671 36.0

442,167 71.8 173,695 28.2

111,955 80.0 28,074 20.0

229,404 78.6 62,569 21.4

143,938 79.5 37,050 20.5

21

The Economic Returns to

Education in Kentucky

22

Difference in Median Earnings Between a High School

Diploma and an Associate Degree, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Public Use Samples, based on 2000 Census

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000 10

,40

0

4,0

00

8,0

00

TexasCaliforniaConnecticutVirginiaM

ichiganG

eorgiaNevadaDelawareAlaskaHawaiiO

regonArizonaSouth CarolinaNorth CarolinaNew JerseyM

arylandUnited StatesColoradoO

hioTennesseeNew M

exicoO

klahoma

LouisianaKentuckyIllinoisIndianaNew YorkVerm

ontNew Ham

pshireAlabam

aM

issouriW

ashingtonM

innesotaRhode IslandFloridaIdahoM

ississippiW

est VirginiaW

isconsinM

ainePennsylvaniaM

assachusettsArkansasKansasSouth DakotaNebraskaUtahNorth DakotaW

yoming

IowaM

ontana

6,8

00

23

HB1 in 1997

SB1 in 2000

In the Face of These Challenges,

Kentucky Acted:

24

The Steps Taken to Improve

Adult Education in Kentucky

Make Your Work a

National Model.

25

Key Strengths

Focus on Long-Term (20-Year) Strategy to Improve Quality of Life and Economic Well-Being of State’s Population

Systemic Pre-K through Postsecondary Education

Use of Information to Shape Agenda and Monitor Progress

Adult Education Seen as Integral to All Other Levels and Issues

Sustained Over Significant Political and Economic Change

(continued)

26

Key Strengths (cont.)

Focus on People, not Providers (Counties as Units for Improvement

Emphasis on Partnerships with Employers and Institutions of Postsecondary Education, and Links to Workforce Development

Emphasis on Competencies Necessary for Employment and Continuing (Lifelong) Learning

Use of Incentives Linked to Performance in Meeting Statewide and County Goals

(continued)

27

Key Strengths (cont.)

Capacity to:

Lead a Statewide Strategy» At the Highest Level of State Leadership

» Cutting Across Sectors and Agencies

» Drawing on All Available Providers and Resources

Develop and Sustain Partnerships, Especially with Employers

Sustain Attention to a Strategic Agenda Over Changes in Economy and Election Cycles

28

Perhaps Most Important of All…

Explicitly a Kentucky Program

Not a State Implementation of a Federal Program

Kentucky Has Created an Adult Education System

That Is:

29

As a Result of Your Combined

Efforts, Kentucky Has Made

Remarkable Progress.

30

Low Adult Secondary Education

57%

86%

57%

46%45%

40%41%39%

61%

67%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

31

Low Advanced ESL

47%47%

38%39%

35%37%

32%

35%

45%

53%

46%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

32

Placement in Postsecondary Education or Training

69%68%58%

50%46%

35%30%

77%74%73%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

33

Placement in Unsubsidized Employment

60%

81%

46%42%

30%27%

25%

52%

72%67%

74%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

34

Retention in Unsubsidized Employment

65%

96%

56%

50%48%

40%

30%

94%90%

80%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

35

GED Completion

70%

80%

57%

50%48%

55%

50%

62%

67%66%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

36

Enrollment in Adult Education Programs

125,000

100,00090,000

75,000

60,00050,000

115,000

120,051

51,117

109,880

86,413

62,734

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Target Results

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

37

This Is a Time to

Celebrate Success.

And to Redouble Efforts—the Job

Is Far from Done.

38

Meeting Adult Educational Goals in Kentucky—

GED Graduates

Source: Kentucky Adult Education Core Indicator Performance Measures (www.kyae.ky.gov/performance)

60,31550,57541,12326,472

12,533

0

75,000

150,000

225,000

300,000

375,000

450,000

FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004

Number of GEDs Needed = 435,000