the impact of legalized abortion on crime
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The Impact of Legalized The Impact of Legalized Abortion on CrimeAbortion on Crime
By By
john J. Donohue & Steven D. john J. Donohue & Steven D. LevittLevitt
Presented by Ming LiuPresented by Ming Liu
IntroductionIntroduction
Drop in crime rate in 1990’sDrop in crime rate in 1990’s
Explanations for the drop in crimeExplanations for the drop in crime
The relationship of legalization of abortion The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in Crimeand the drop in Crime
Structure of the PaperStructure of the Paper
Brief history of abortionBrief history of abortion
The relationship of legalization of abortion The relationship of legalization of abortion and the drop in crimeand the drop in crime
Empirical evidenceEmpirical evidence
Brief Overview of the History of Brief Overview of the History of Legalized AbortionLegalized Abortion
The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828The 1st law restricting abortions, 1828 Abortion became illegal throughout the country, Abortion became illegal throughout the country,
19001900 The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation, The 1st modest effort at abortion liberation,
1967-19701967-1970 Legal abortion in five states, 1970Legal abortion in five states, 1970 Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973Legal abortion extended to the entire US, 1973
– Roe v. WadeRoe v. Wade
Figure 1:Total Abortions by Year
The Mechanism By Which Abortion The Mechanism By Which Abortion Legalization Lowers Crime RatesLegalization Lowers Crime Rates
Through smaller cohort sizeThrough smaller cohort size
Abortion has negative effect on the births of those Abortion has negative effect on the births of those who are most at risk of engaging in criminal who are most at risk of engaging in criminal behaviorbehavior
– Unwanted births and bad maternal backgroundUnwanted births and bad maternal background
– Optimize the timing of childbearing Optimize the timing of childbearing
Empirical Evidence on Legalized Empirical Evidence on Legalized Abortion Affecting Crime RatesAbortion Affecting Crime Rates
Figure 2: Crime Rates from the Uniform Crime Reports, 1973-1999
Figure 3: National Crime Victimization Survey, 1973-1998
Effective_Abortiont=Abortiont-a*(Arresta/Arresttotal)
Effective Legalized Abortion Rate
Figure 4a: Changes in Violent Crime and Abortion rates,1985-1997
Figure 4b: Changes in Property Crime and Abortion rates,1985-1997
Figure 4c: Changes in Murder and Abortion rates,1985-1997
Exclude outlier states
The Impact of Abortion on Arrests The Impact of Abortion on Arrests by Age of Offenderby Age of Offender
TABLE VI
The Impact of Abortion Rates on Arrests by Age
(All Values in the Table are Coefficients on the Effective Abortion Rate (x100), Other Coefficients are Not Reported)
ConclusionConclusion
Legalized abortion reducing the crime rateLegalized abortion reducing the crime rate
Crime rates will continue to fall because of Crime rates will continue to fall because of the legalized abortionthe legalized abortion
Thanks a lot!!!Thanks a lot!!!
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