the immigration issue and the 2008 presidential election: exit poll of hispanic voters in miami-dade...

The Immigration Issue and the 2008 The Immigration Issue and the 2008 Presidential Election:Presidential Election:Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Dade County, Florida and Los Angeles Dade County, Florida and Los Angeles County, CaliforniaCounty, California

November 6, 2008November 6, 2008

22

MethodologyMethodology

Sample sizeSample size 2,102 interviews with Latin 2,102 interviews with Latin American immigrant voters in American immigrant voters in Miami and Los AngelesMiami and Los Angeles

Dates of Dates of interviewsinterviews

October 23 – November 4, 2008October 23 – November 4, 2008

Margin of Margin of errorerror

2 percentage points2 percentage points

Languages of Languages of interviewsinterviews

Spanish, EnglishSpanish, English

33

Demographics of Latin Demographics of Latin American Immigrant American Immigrant ElectorateElectorate The Latin American immigrant The Latin American immigrant

electorate does not include U.S. born electorate does not include U.S. born Hispanic voters, Cuban refugee Hispanic voters, Cuban refugee voters, or Puerto Rican voters.voters, or Puerto Rican voters.

The Latin American immigrant The Latin American immigrant electorate represents 40 percent electorate represents 40 percent (approximately 4 million) of the (approximately 4 million) of the overall Hispanic vote in the United overall Hispanic vote in the United States.States.

44

The Hispanic The Hispanic ElectorateElectorate

50%

3% 7%

40%

US born HispanicsLatin American immigrantsCuban refugeesPuerto Ricans

55

Country of BirthCountry of BirthLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters

15%

10%60%

15%

South America

Central America

Dominican Republic

Mexico

66

AgeAgeLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters

12%

34%

12% 3%

39%

18-2930-4950-6465-7475+

77

Decade of ArrivalDecade of ArrivalLatin American Immigrant Latin American Immigrant VotersVoters

13%18%

40%

22%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1960s orbefore

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

88

Presidential VotePresidential Vote

Immigrant voters from Latin Immigrant voters from Latin America voted overwhelming for America voted overwhelming for Barack Obama for President.Barack Obama for President.

Obama had the strongest support Obama had the strongest support among Mexicans, Dominicans, among Mexicans, Dominicans, and young voters (ages 18-29).and young voters (ages 18-29).

99

Presidential VotePresidential VoteLatin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters

78%

22%

Barack Obama

John McCain

1010

Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

21%

79%

17%

83%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

DominicanRepublic

Mexico BarackObama

JohnMcCain

1111

Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

36%64%

62%38%

14%86%

30%70%

32%68%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Peru

Venezuela

Argentina

Colombia

South America

BarackObama

JohnMcCain

1212

Presidential VotePresidential VoteBy Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

25%75%

36%

64%

70%30%

39%61%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Honduras

Guatemala

Nicaragua

CentralAmerica

BarackObama

JohnMcCain

1313

Presidential VotePresidential VoteLatin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By AgeBy Age

40%60%

34%66%

33%67%

16%84%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

65+

50-64

30-49

18-29

BarackObama

JohnMcCain

1414

Presidential VotePresidential VoteThe Hispanic VoteThe Hispanic Vote

33%

67%

22%

78%

38%

61%

69%

31%

23%

77%

0%

10%

20%30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%90%

100%

AllHispanics

LatinAmerican

immigrants

US bornHispanics

Cubanrefugees

PuertoRicans

BarackObama

JohnMcCain

1515

The Immigration IssueThe Immigration Issue

The immigration issue is The immigration issue is considered to be “very important” considered to be “very important” by more than three-fifths of all by more than three-fifths of all Latin American immigrant voters. Latin American immigrant voters. This is especially true among This is especially true among those from Central America and those from Central America and the more recent arrivals.the more recent arrivals.

1616

How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters

63%

26%

11%

Very importantSomewhat importantNot important

1717

How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

63%

26%

11%

71%

22%

7%

67%

28%

5%

65%

29%

6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SouthAmerica

CentralAmerica

DominicanRepublic

Mexico

Very important Somewhat important Not important

1818

How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By Decade of ArrivalBy Decade of Arrival

51%

31%

18%

70%

25%

5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1960s or before 1990s / 2000s

Very important Somewhat important Not important

1919

How important is the issue of How important is the issue of immigration to you and your immigration to you and your family?family?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

54%

34%

12%

43%

34%

23%

51%

40%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cuban refugees Puerto Ricans US born Hispanics

Very important Somewhat important Not important

2020

Immigration PolicyImmigration Policy

Latin American immigrant voters are Latin American immigrant voters are united on immigration policy. More than united on immigration policy. More than 90 percent support giving illegal 90 percent support giving illegal immigrants a chance to legalize their immigrants a chance to legalize their status and eventually become citizens.status and eventually become citizens.

A rise in discrimination against Hispanics A rise in discrimination against Hispanics because of the tone of the immigration because of the tone of the immigration debate contributed to the rejection of debate contributed to the rejection of the Republican nominee for President.the Republican nominee for President.

2121

Which statement is closer to Which statement is closer to your opinion?your opinion?Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

7%

93%

9%

91%

1%

99%

10%

90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SouthAmerica

CentralAmerica

DominicanRepublic

Mexico

Give the majority ofthe 12 million illegalimmigrants achance to legalizetheir status andeventually becomecitizens

Encourage themajority of the 12million illegalimmigrants in theUS to leave thecountry

2222

Which statement is closer to Which statement is closer to your opinion?your opinion?By Country of BirthBy Country of Birth

18%

82%

13%

87%

15%

85%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cubanrefugees

Puerto Ricans US bornHispanics

Give the majority ofthe 12 million illegalimmigrants achance to legalizetheir status andeventually becomecitizens

Encourage themajority of the 12million illegalimmigrants in theUS to leave thecountry

2323

Do you agree or disagree with the following Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?statement?

Discrimination against Hispanics in the Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. has increased in the last two years U.S. has increased in the last two years because of the tone and rhetoric from the because of the tone and rhetoric from the immigration debate.immigration debate.Latin American Immigrant VotersLatin American Immigrant Voters

67%

33%

Agree

Disagree