the global tropics hazards outlook at the climate prediction … · 2019-07-16 · monday:...

The Global Tropics Hazards Outlook at the

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Adam Allgood, Anthony Artusa, Steve Baxter, Lindsey Long, Jon Gottschalck, Dan Harnos, Kyle MacRitchie, Christina Maurin, Brad Pugh, Matt Rosencrans

Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Charleston, SC

June 13, 2019

§ Product Description, Release schedule

§ Outlook Preparation Process

§ Partners, Users, Applications

§ Verification

§ Upcoming Plans

Outline

Product Description

Product Description

Product Release ScheduleProduct released weekly according to the following steps:

MONDAY: Forecaster updates the MJO weekly PPT/PDF and prepares draft GTH outlook maps. Draft is posted to a webpage.

MONDAY: Forecaster sends message to collaborators for feedback, announcing tech callMONDAY: 2:30 PM ET conference call with available partners/collaboratorsMONDAY: Finalize MJO weekly update PPT/PDF and post to web by 4 PM ET

TUESDAY: Updates outlook maps based on feedback and latest forecast informationTUESDAY: Write PMD, performs last round of coordination with NHC by 1 PM ETTUESDAY: Final outlook maps and PMD posted to web

FRIDAY: During the Atlantic hurricane season June 1 –November 30, forecast is updated. Reduced region (120 E to 0, 0 to 40 N)

TUESDAY: Global Tropics Briefing at 2:30 PM EThttps://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2203167689536648707

Product DescriptionFRIDAY UPDATE

Outlook Preparation ProcessAssess ENSO rainfall patterns

Knowledge of MJO impacts

Strength and phase of MJO

Outlook maps

Include predictive information related to other coherent tropical modes (KW, ER, AEW, etc.)

Include extratropical related factors (low latitude frontal activity, blocking, etc.)

Statistical forecast tools (precip, TCs)

Dynamical model forecast tools (precip, TCs)

GTH Outlook – Forecast Tools EWP C-LIMCA

GTH Outlook – Forecast Tools

GTH Outlook – Forecast Tools

GTH Outlook – Forecast Tools

Product Goals1. Commerce is Global: Support sectors of U.S. economy (financial, energy, agriculture, water resource management, aid organizations, etc.) that have international interests

ü Advance notice of hazards and benefits in the Tropicsü Assessment of weather / climate pattern changes

2. Support NOAA: Support the National Weather Service (NWS) field, among other U.S. government agencies, by:

ü Assessing and forecasting the distribution of large scale tropical convectionü Providing advance notice for potential pattern changes across the U.S.ü Providing subseasonal tropical cyclone forecasts for U.S. government agencies

3. Additional resource for international met organizations

NWS: NCEP, WFOs, RFCs, Regional HQsAid Organizations: U.S. and International Red Cross, USAID Private Sector: Energy, agriculture, financial, and water resources sectorsOthers: Other U.S. Agencies, International weather agencies, TV mets

Partners, Users and ApplicationsNOAA National Centers:è National Hurricane Centerè Central Pacific Hurricane CenterDept. Of Defense: è Joint Typhoon Warning Centerè Naval Postgraduate School International Agencies:è Australian Bureau of Meteorologyè Taiwan Central Weather Bureau Academia:è SUNY, NC-CICS

Partners: Example Applications:

Stakeholders:

Field Campaigns – DYNAMO 2011-2012

Haiti Earthquake Relief

DWH Oil Spill

Outlook – VerificationPrecipitation

Outlook – VerificationPrecipitation

Outlook – Upcoming PlansOSTP Week 3-4 Funding Supports:

Primary tasks for develop and evaluate:

(1) Convert or transition the GTH from the Week 1-2 time period to a Week 2-3 or Week 2-4 product

(2) Convert to probabilistic style for precipitation, temperature and tropical cyclone outlooks (various approaches being considered, feedback appreciated)

Thanks for Your Attention

Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov