the global future ahead: charting world scenarios

Charting Global Future:Roads Beyond the Phase Barrier

Pavel LukshaSKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management /METAVER

Starting as ‘education of the future’ community

charting our own ‘future of education’ up 2030

now one of leading Russian foresight groups with a unique and efficient technology

GLOBAL CRISIS

FINANCIAL / ECONOMICAL

POLITICAL

RESOURCE

ENVIRONMENTAL

… AND ITS ROOTS

ETHICAL

HUMANITY / NATURE DISBALANCE

FUTURE ‘S INDIVIDUAL, NOT SHARED

LACK OF TRUST

“We must continue to go into space for the future of humanity. I don't think we will survive another thousand years without escaping beyond our fragile planet.”

Steven Hawking, physicist

NO MR HAWKING,IF WE ARE UNABLE TO COPE WITH EARTHLY MATTERS,THE SPACE WILL NOT SAVE US

WE WILL FAIL …

DISGRACEFULLY

NOW

CYBERPUNK: (Instable) present

continuousscenario

APOCALYPSE: Phase catastrophe

scenario

GREEN COGNITIVITY: Phase transition

scenario

+20-30 years

Can ‘Green Cognitivity’ scenario emerge?

We envisage three groups of trends that support this scenario – leading to a particular and unusual type of all-humanity transition beyond the phase barrier

TREND GROUP 1: LIFE <-> NET

2011

2 Billion users

store 1 Zettabyte

<10% use 100+ Mbps

2020

5 Billion users

store 38 Zettabyte

>70% use 100+ Mbps

TREND GROUP 2: PHYSICAL <-> VIRTUAL

Internet of Things

Augmented Realities

TREND GROUP 3: INNER <-> OUTER

Body Extensions

Brain-ComputerConnections

QUALITATIVE TRANSITION

Anthropo-structures with new quality of

TRUST

COLLABORATION

RESOURCE-SHARING

FUTURE-SHARING

2012 – 2030s

2030s – 2050s

CHALLENGES BEYOND THE BARRIER

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY HUMAN-MACHINE

INTEGRATION IMMORTALITY …

CHALLENGES BEFORE THE BARRIER

MANAGING INCREASED COMPLEXITY

BARRIER-BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES

INTEGRATION …

FORESIGHTWORLD 2045TO