the future of open fabrication
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124UniversityAvenue,2ndFloor
PaloAlto,California94301
650.854.6322
TechnologyHorizonsProgram
www.iftf.org
August2011|SR-1390B
CONTRIBUTORS:
Author: Anthony Townsend, Lyn Jeffery, Devin Fidler, Mathias Crawford
Editor: Lisa Mumbach, Nicole Tindall
Art Direction and Design: Robin Bogott, Karin Lubeck, Jody Radzik
SR-1390B©2011InstitutefortheFuture.Allrightsreserved.Allbrandsandtrademarksremainthepropertyoftheirrespectiveowners.Reproductionisprohibitedwithoutwrittenconsent.
about the …
TeChNOlOgy hORIzONS PROgRamTheTechnologyHorizonsProgramcombinesadeepunderstandingoftechnologyandsocietalforcestoidentifyandevaluatediscontinuitiesandinnovationsinthenextthreetotenyears.Ourapproachtotechnologyforecastingisunique—weputpeopleatthecenterofourforecasts.Understandinghumansasconsumers,workers,householders,andcommunitymembersallowsIFTFtohelpcompanieslookbeyondtechnicalfeasibilitytoidentifythevalueinnewtechnologies,forecastadoptionanddiffusionpatterns,anddiscovernewmarketopportunitiesandthreats.
INSTITUTe fOR The fUTUReTheInstitutefortheFutureisanindependent,nonprofitstrategicresearchgroupwithmorethan40yearsofforecastingexperience.Thecoreofourworkisidentifyingemergingtrendsanddiscontinuitiesthatwilltransformglobalsocietyandtheglobalmarketplace.Weprovideourmemberswithinsightsintobusinessstrategy,designprocess,innovation,andsocialdilemmas.Ourresearchspansabroadterritoryofdeeplytransformativetrends,fromhealthandhealthcaretotechnology,theworkplace,andhumanidentity.TheInstitutefortheFutureislocatedinPaloAlto,California.
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CONTeNTS
INTRODUCTION 1
1. THEEMERGINGWORLDOFOPENFABRICATION 3
Acceleratingtheflowofthings 3
Processes:thefundamentalsof3Dprinting 4
Limits:atomsaredifferentfrombits 5
Fromproductionlinetomanufacturingwebtofabricationcloud 5
Perils:aworldof“crapjects” 7
Opportunities:aworldoftotems 7
Manufacturing’sbigbang 8
2. THEFOUNDATIONSOFOPENFABRICATION 9
Softwarefrontiers 10
Materialadvances 12
3. OPENFABRICATIONCOMMUNITIES 15
Openfabcommunity1:theMakerBotthingiverse 15
Openfabcommunity2:China’sshanzhai 17
4. FORECASTSFOROPENFABRICATION 23
Democratizingindustrialdesign 23
Thelongnowofmaterials 24
Extremecustomization 25
Seeit,captureit,makeit 25
Newblue-collarskills 26
Communityworkshops,notpersonaldesktops 27
10to10,000:thesweetspotfor3Dprinting 27
Multi-purpose,safermaterials 28
4
MakerculturemeetstheWeb 28
Globalcrowdsourcedmicromanufacturing 28
Shanzhaidesigngrowsup 29
Tissueprinting 29
Wildcard:self-replication 30
5.TAKEAWAYS 31
Keyobstacles 31
Keyopportunities 32
CONTeNTS (cont . )
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INTROdUCTION
INTROdUCTION
Whentrackingtechnologicalinnovation,payattentionnotsomuchto
whatisnewastowhatisreadytotakeoff,asIFTFDistinguishedFellow
BobJohansenlikestosay.Bythatmeasure,we’reofficiallyenteringthe
decadewhen3Dprinting—thinkprintingobjects—fulfills thepromise
thatmakers, programmers, andgeeks havebeen forecasting for the
last20years.3Dprintingisslowlybutsurelymovingbeyondtherealm
ofhigh-enddesignandfactoryshops,andenteringtheconsciousness
of technology lead-users—those in cities around the world who are
most likely toadoptnew tools, start newbusinesses, andchampion
newmovements.
Threeyearsago,IFTFpublishedaforecastonThe Future of Making,whichlookedatthefutureoftheDIYmovement.Wehighlightedthedemocratizationofaccesstonewtoolsandopen-sourceeverything(alongwitheco-motivationandaquestforauthenticity)askeydriversofthefutureofmaking.Today,inThe Future of Open Fabrication,wetakeadeeperdiveintothetools,processes,andmanufacturinglandscapesthataretransforminghowwereshapeourmaterialworld.Inthecomingdecade,we’llmanipulatetheatomsofstuff—plastic,metal,concrete,glass,evenbiologicalmatter—usingmanyofthesametools,businessmodels,andinspirationsasthelastdecadeappliedtobitsofinformation.Someofuswilldoitourselves,whilemillionsmorewilloutsourceittoalocalshoporafactoryinChina.Butnomatterwhereithappens,newmanufacturingtoolsinthehandsofawidervarietyofpeoplewillchallengethebasicassumptionsofindustrialproduction,retail,andconsumption.Welcometothefutureofopenfabrication.
Startwithourintroductiontotheemergingworldofopenfabricationforalookatthebigshiftsunderwayinmanufacturing.DipintoFoundations,wherewelayoutthebuildingblocksofopenfabrication,frommesh-mergingsoftwareand3Dscanningtobiologicalfeedstocksandprintableelectronics.OpenFabricationCommunitiestakesyouintotheworldoftheMakerBot,thefirstaffordable3Dprinteraimedatthenonindustrialmarket,andthenoutagaintoChina’sshanzhaimanufacturers,whosesmall-batchopennetworksgiveuscluesaboutwhatthefutureof3Dprintingmightlooklike.Orgostraighttoourforecaststoseewhatthenextdecadecouldhold—andwhatitmightmeanforyouandyourorganization.
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accelerating the flow of things
Tenyearsago,theInternetwasstillmostlyamediumfortextandimages.Whileinteractivitywasbecomingmorecommonplace,audioandvideocontentwerejustbeginningtotrickle.Yettoday,richmultimediacontentdominatesthecommerceandinfrastructureoftheWeb.Byoneestimate,Netflixstreamingvideoaloneconsumes20%ofU.S.Internetbandwidthduringprimetimeeveningviewinghours.
Today,it’sequallyhardtoimaginetheWebasafuturemediumforsharingnotjustdigitalmedia,butalsodigitalthings.Digitalthingsaredatapackagesthatdescribetheshape,materialcomposition,andfabricationofobjects.Industrialmanufacturershaveworkedthiswayfordecades,usingcomputer-aideddesign(CAD)totransmitnewideasfromdrawingboardtofactory.Buttoday,onlinerepositoriessuchasThingiverse—wherepeopleopenlyshareandinviteotherstobuildontheirdesigns—areunlockingtheinnovativepotentialofagrassrootscommunityoftinkerersanddesignerstocreateandsharedigitalplansforrealobjects.
ThesecommunalrepositoriescoupledwithcheapCADsoftwareandanewbreedofdesktop3Dprinters—whichcan“print,”orlayerup,designsinavarietyofindustrialmaterials—arebringingdownthebarrierstoacceleratingtheflowofthingsontheInternet.Wecallthisnewecosystemofopen-sourcetoolsfordesigning,sharing,andproducingphysicalartifactsopenfabrication.
Thekeyprinciplesofopenfabricationaresimple:
• Stayflexible—Theresourcesforopenfabrication(theprinters,software,andmaterials)arestillrudimentaryandrough,butthecalltoarmsistoexploretheflexibilityofcheapandaccessibledesktopmanufacturing.
• LeverageWebscale—ThemakermovementstartedingaragesandworkshopsbutsoonformedcommunitiesontheWeb;nowopenfabricationissystematicallyleveragingtheWeb’sscalethroughthecreationofstandardsandknowledgerepositoriessuchasThingiverse.
• Beopen—Thissimpledictumisofteninshortsupplyintheworldofdesignandindustrialmanufacturing.Openfabricatorsshareintellectualpropertyintheformofobjectdesigns,code,andprocessinnovations,acceleratingthelearningofall.
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Thingiverseisanonlinecommunityofdesignersofprintableobjects.
Source:thingiverse.com
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Processes: the fundamentals of 3d printing
Currentadditivefabricationprocesses—or3Dprinting,asitiswidelyknown—relyononeofseverallayeringapproaches.
Theoldestofthese,stereolithography,involvesusinglaserlighttosolidifylayersofaphoto-sensitiveliquidpolymer.Oncethelayersofpolymerhavehardened,theplatformisraisedoutoftheremainingliquidtorevealthecompletedstructure.Bymakingautomatedfabricationofwholeobjectspossible,thisgroundbreakingapproachkickedoffthe3Dprintingrevolutioninthemid-1980s.
Successiveapproacheshavesimilarlyinvolvedbuildinguplayersofmaterial.Sintering,forexample,useslaserstoactuallymeltlayersofmetal,glass,orplasticintoplace.
Aparallelsuiteoftechnologiesistakingshapethatmaymovemoreeasilyintowidespreadhomeuse.Fuseddepositionmodeling,forexample,actuallysquirtspreciselayersofmeltedplastic,sugar,orevenicetobuildafreestandingstructure.Anotherprocessusesabinderorgluetofuselayersofmodelingpowder.
While3Dprintingtechnologiescontinuetospread,atpresent,actualhigh-qualityprintersareveryexpensiveandavailabletoonlyasmallcollectionoforganizations.However,anumberofcommercial“printcenters”haveemergedtoaddressthisgap.Forexample,PonokoandShapewaysallowuserstosenddigitalmodelsforprinting.Themodelsareprintedandthenshippedtotheuser.
Beyondthis,wildcardsinthisspaceincludemarginalapplicationstakingshapeforuseinconstruction,electroniccircuitry,andstemcellapplications.Oneofthesemayultimatelyturnouttobethetrue“killerapp”foradditivefabrication.
Overall,however,whilethepotentialforadditivefabricationisnowbecomingclear,newtechniqueswillneedtobeintroducedforthefieldtotrulymature.Eachoftheexistingapproacheswillexperiencemarginaltechnicaladvancesoverthenextseveralyears.Buttheyalsoeachhavefundamentallimitationsthatinhibittheeasyexpansionof3Dprintingintothecreationofcomplexformsinvolvingadiversearrayofmaterialsandproperties—thatis,intomainstreamproductionoffinalproducts.
Astheyexisttoday,most3Dprintingtechnologiesmightmorereadilybeclassifiedassophisticatedsculptingtechniquesthanasmaturemanufacturingtechnologies.However,thiswillbegintochangeoverthecomingdecade.
Stereolithographycreatessolidprintobjectsinavatofliquidphotopolymer.
Source:Flickruserphilrenato
Lasersinteringmeltslayersoffinemetalfilingsintoasolidobject.
Source:renishaw.com
Fuseddepositionmodelingprintsbydepositinglayersofmaterial.
Source:shapeways.com
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limits: atoms are different from bits
Evenasabravecadreofopenfabberspioneersanewwayofmakingandsharingthings,significanthurdlescouldslowthespreadof3Dprintingandlimititsrangeofapplications.Evenamongleadinnovators,deepskepticismexistsaboutthefuturerateofprogressinopenfabrication.Asoneparticipantaskedinourexpertworkshop,“IamstillprintingthesamestuffIprintedtenyearsagoingradschool.WillIstillbeprintingthesamethingtenyearsfromnow?”
OpenfabricationseekstoleveragethescalabilityoftheWeb.Thenetworkeffectsofsharingknowledgeareacceleratinggrassrootsinnovation,similartowhatwesawwithopen-sourcesoftwareinthepastdecade.Butatomsaredifferentfrombits,andopenfabbingcan’tbeexpectedtoplayoutlikeopen-sourcesoftware,foracoupleofreasons.
Foronething,theITrevolutionalsobenefitedfromrapidunderlyingadvancesin“feedstocks”suchasbroadband,processingpower,andstorage.It’snotclearthoseunderlyingacceleratorswillexistinthemessyworldofstuffinwhichopenfabricatorsreside,wherephysicsandgeographykeepcomingbacktocreatecomplexlogisticalproblems.Asoneexpertworkshopparticipantremarked:“ThebeautyoftheWeb(andWebtools,likeopen-sourcesoftware)isthatyoucangetto50millionpeopleinakeystroke.Physicalproductsrequireadistributionchannel.”
Foranotherthing,manufacturingisalreadyahighlyrefinedpractice.Whilemanyopportunitiesfordisruptionexist,3Dprintingshowsnosignofdisplacingthehighlytailoredprocessesandtoolsformassproductionofstandardizedobjects,suchasinjection-moldedplastics.Thesemethodshavebeenhonedoverdecadesanddeliverastonishinglycheap,high-qualityresults.Inalmosteverylarge-runcase,itwillbecheapertotoolanobjectthanto3Dprintit.Openfabricationwillopenmanydoors,butitsdisruptivepotentialhassomeclearlimits.
from production line to manufacturing web to fabrication cloud
Overthecourseofthe20thcentury,theassemblylinemodelevolvedwithinachanginglandscapeofmoreflexiblemachineryandcomplexsupplychainsanddistributionnetworks.Whatwehavetodaylooksmorelikeaninterconnectedmanufacturingwebthanisolatedproduction-linefactories.
Anotherwayofthinkingabouttheseshiftsisintermsofhowtheytransformrawmaterialsintofinishedproducts.Themovingassemblyline,firstintroducedatFord’sHighlandPark,Michiganplantin1913,employedawidevarietyofmaterialandresourceinputsandavastnumberofmanufacturingprocessestosteadilyproduceastrictlylimitedsetofobjectsinmassivenumbers.Today’smanufacturingweb,incontrast,isfarmoreflexible,diversified,andagile.Plantsandmachinescanquicklyberetooledandrevvedupordownto“burst-produce”farsmallerrunsofamuchlargersetofproducts.
Eveniftheworstrisksareunrealized,3Dprintingcouldbeheldbackbyinherentlimitsto
scalability.
Source:IFTFOpenFabExpertWorkshop
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3Dprintingpresentsyetathirdmodel,afabricationcloudthattakesaverylimitednumberofinputmaterialsandprocessesbutcanflexiblymanipulatethemtocost-effectivelyproduceanalmostinfinitearrayofproductsinbatchesassmallasone.
Thefollowingchartsummarizestheroleofmachines,labor,materials,anddistributionnetworksineachera:
ProductionLine
Manually-operatedmachinetools
Skilledmachineoperators
Metal,wood,rubber
Wholesalers
None
Machinery
Labor’sAdded
Value
Materials
Distribution
Recycling/
UseofProducts
ManufacturingWeb
Computerizednumericalcontrolmachinetools(CNC)
Programmers
Metal,wood,plastic,foam
Retailers,directtoconsumers
Selectcomponents
FabricationCloud
Rapidprototyping/additivemanufacturing
Designers
Plastic,lowmelting-pointmetals,powderedmaterials,cells,binders
Fabricate-on-demand,fabricateon-site
Entireobjects
Source:IFTF
evolution in manufacturing
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Perils: a world of “crapjects”
As3Dprintinglowersthecostofengaginginaproductionrun,itwillbringbothopportunitiesandperils.Foronething,itislikelytoencouragetheproductionofsubstandardgoods—whatsomemayseeasfrivolousproduction.Surely,theworldisawashinlow-qualitymass-producedgoodstoday.Butseveralaspectsof3Dprintingandopenfabricationcouldreinforcethistrend.
First,thediffusionof3Dprintingwillpresentafairlysteeplearningcurveforbothdesignersandconsumers.Learninghowto3Dprintofteninvolvesmakingmanyuseless,substandardobjects.Evenifmostwilleventuallymoveontomorecarefullyselecteddesignsforproduction,thebroaderperceptionof3Dprintingisoftenlikelytobeassociatedwithflawed,low-quality,disposableoutcomes.Muchofwhatcomesoutof3Dprinterswillbe“crapjects”(acontractionof“crappyobjects”)—unwantedwastecreatedbyunskilleddesignersandfabricatedusinginferiormaterialswithpoorsurfaceresolution.
Additionally,thereisthescenarioof“physicalspam,”wherepeoplesimplyuse3Dprinterswithabandon,producingalargenumberofobjectsofinfinitesimallysmallvalue.Thismaybereinforcedbyfuture3Dprintersthatcaneasilyrecyclefeedstocks,greatlyloweringtheperceivedecologicaloreconomicimpactofoverproduction.Still,thenoveltyofrapidfabricationmaywearoffasthehighexpectationswehavedevelopedaroundmass-producedobjects’strengthanddurability,surfacetexture,andlusterprovehardtoleavebehind.
Opportunities: a world of totems
3Dprintingandopendesignalsopresentuswiththeopportunitytobreakdownthestandardizationanduniformitythat’sbeenenforcedbymassproductionforacentury.Initsplace,wewillseeanexplosionofpersonalizedobjects,introducingforthefirsttimeartisanalcharacteristicstomanufacturedproducts.Theseobjectsmayincorporatefeaturesbasedonsensoryorscanneddatafromindividuals,suchas“BeYourOwnSouvenir,”ahackthatcombined3DscanningwithaRepRap3Dprintertoallowtouriststocreatepersonalfigurinesofthemselves.
Inthe2010sciencefictionfilmInception,corporatespieswhoenterthedreamsoftheirtargetscarry“totems,”smallobjectswhoseprecisephysicalcharacteristicsarekeptasapersonalsecrettoallowthespyareferencepointtorecoverhissenseofrealityandescapethedream.Inanthropologicalterms,atotemisanobjectthatservesasanemblemorsymbolofaclan,family,orindividual.Personalizedfabricatedobjectshavethepotentialtobecometotemsandbeimbuedbytheirpossessorswithspiritualsignificance.
Thesenewpossibilitiesmeanthatopenfabricationwilltakethespectrumofconsumerproductexperienceswearefamiliarwithandpushittotheextremeedges—atthesametimerenderingobjectsbothmoremeaninglessandbanalandalsogivingthemuniquenessandpersonality.
Aworldofphysicalspam?
Source:FlickruserMaskedRetreiver
AtotemfromthefilmInception
Source:pulsarmedia.eu
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manufacturing’s big bang
Openfabricationwillchallengekeyassumptionsofindustrialproduction:thattherearealwaysincreasingreturnstoscale,thatcomplexsupplychainsareneededtofabricatecomplexobjects,andthatmanufacturingprocesses(ratherthandesign,whichcaneasilybecopied)arethecoreintellectualproperty.
Asthesefoundationsaredisruptedinmanufacturing’sversionoftheBigBang,we’llseethewaysmanufacturingisorganizedinphysicalspacefragmentandrecombinealongseveraldimensions:
From centralized factories to distributed, mobile fabs
Traditionalassemblylineshavelongplacedlimitationsonwhereandhowobjectscanbeproducedbecausethescaleneededtoreduceunitcostsrequiresmassivecentralization.3Dprintingwillallowproductiontobemovedclosertothesiteofconsumptionandallowsupplychainstofragmentintomanyverysmall-scalepartsproducers.Also,3Dprintersareself-contained,morestandardizedthancomputer-controlledmachinetools,andrequireasupplychaintoprovideonlytwothings:electricpowerandalimitedsetoffeedstocks.Thiswillenablenewkindsofmanufacturingbusinessmodelsbasedonshort-run,site-,andevent-specificorevenadhocproductionruns.
From fixed to mobile machines
3Dprinterswillalsoofferthepossibilityofbeingmovedduringtheproductionprocess,allowingforthecreationofstructuresinthefield.Ironically,self-propelled3Dprinterswillbeabletoindustrializetheproductionofsomegoodsthathavetraditionallybeentoolargetomanufactureinfactories.Inbuildingconstruction,forexample,3Dprintedmasonrycouldultimatelybecheaperthanlabor-intensivetraditionalbuildingmethods.Contourcrafting,atechnologyunderdevelopmentattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,hassoughttomake3Dprintingthepivotaltechnologyinwhatamountstoahouse-buildingfactoryonwheels.Theresearchersinvolvedprojectmainstreamcommercializationwithinthenexttenyears.
From desktop back to factory
Whileopenfabbingwilldiffusemanufacturingcapabilitiesbroadlythroughouttheeconomy,countercurrentswilldevelopasthesetechnologiescreepbackupthesupplychainandtransformthefactoryitself.3Dprintingisalreadyplayingaroleinthefactory—forinstance,printingcomplexnewshapesforaircraftassembliesthatwouldbenearlyimpossibletomanufactureusingtraditionaltechniques.Incertainproductionniches,from10unitsto10,000units,3Dprintingwillallowmorekindsoflocalmanufacturingenterprisestothrive,bothbybringingtheunitcostsofsmall-scaleproductiondownandbybeingsmallandunobtrusiveenoughtobeslippedintononindustrialurbanspaces.OrganizationssuchasDominicMuren’sHumblefactory—aSeattle-baseddevelopmentconsultancyofferingstrategicdesignconsultinginopenhardwarefortheeverydayindustrialist—areemergingtobringmanufacturingoutofthefactoryandintothehomeofthe“cottageindustrialist.”
DominicMuren’sHumblefactoryseekstosourcematerialslocallytocreatesustainableelectronics.
Source:DominicMuren
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Theopen-sourcesoftwaremovement,inwhichoriginalsourcecodeis
madefreelyavailableandcanberedistributed,hashadatremendous
impactwithintheITindustryoverthelasttwodecades.Now,emerg-
ingtechnologiespromisetosimilarlymovethefabricationofphysical
thingstowardgreaterdigitizationanddemocratization.Weareentering
aworldinwhichsoftwarecodecanbeusedtoproduceobjects,and
inthisworld,newtechnologieswillallowformorefreeavailabilityand
distributionofactualthings.Atthecenterofthisshiftistheemergence
ofsystemsforusingsoftwaretobuildphysicalobjects—forexample,
3Dprintingoradditivefabricationtechnologies.
Additivefabricationisstillveryyoungwhencomparedtomanyothermanufacturingapproaches.Yet,injustovertwodecadesthefieldhasmanagedtoexpandfromanear-exclusivefocusonstereolithography(atechnologyfocusedonsolidifyingliquidpolymerswithlaserlightexposure)forprototyping,toawiderangeofprocessesandmaterials,includingfinalproductmanufacturingandpreliminaryentryintothehomeconsumermarket.Theprocesshasdevelopeddistinctadvantagesformanyprojectsinvolvinglowproductionruns,uniqueorcomplexdesign,shippingconstraints,andtimelimitations.However,fundamentallimitationsinprocess,software,andmaterialsremaintobeaddressed.Still,therearesignsofemergingcapabilitiesinboththesoftwareandmaterialsspacesthatcouldhaveatransformativeimpactonthefuturedirectionofthistechnology.
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Software frontiers
More cost-effective design
Futuregenerationsofdesignsoftwarewilladdresstheissuescurrentlyholdingbackprogressinopenfabrication.Forexample,whencomparedtotraditionalinjectionmolding,additivemanufacturingisnearlyalwaysatrade-offbetweenasavingsinfixedcostsandagreaterunitprice.Still,therearemanysmallproduction-runnicheswhere3Dprintingmakeseconomicsense,althoughcurrenttoolsdonothelpdesignersunderstandthesetrade-offs.
Withinthenextdecade,designsoftwareislikelytoemergethatwillbegintotakeonthischallenge,allowinguserstobetterjudgethecostofa3D-printedmanufacturingrunrelativetotraditionalmanufacturingmethods.Already,earlysignalsofthistransitionarebeginningtotakeshape.Forexample,theWithinEnhancesoftwareprogramallowsfabricatorstodesignmorecost-effectivepartsandtomoreefficientlyorienttheirproductsintheprintingmachinesothattheytakeadvantageofthefact,forinstance,thatprintinghorizontallyinsteadofverticallyofferssignificantcostreductions.
Mass customization
Oneofthekeypotentialapplicationsofdigitalfabricationisgivinguserstheabilitytocustomizemassproductsforindividualuse.Kevlarbodyarmor,forexample,couldbemodifiedtoexactlyfitanindividualsoldierorlawenforcementofficer,andstandardprostheticscouldbepreciselycustomizedforindividualuse.
Fromasoftwarestandpoint,thisfeaturereliesontheabilitytochangeindividualdesignparameterswhileholdingallotherproductcharacteristicsconstant.Thisabilitytochangeoneparameteratatimeisrareincurrentsoftwarebutisanemergingfeatureinanewgenerationof“parametricdesignsoftware,”whichwillbecomemorecommonovertheintermediateterm.Invisalignorthodonticproductsarealreadybasedonthisprinciple,andotherdentalapplicationsarecurrentlyaparticularlystrongdriverinthisarea.
Rendering “impossible” forms
3Dprintingallowsfortheproductionofcomplexformsthatwouldbeextremelydifficult,orevenimpossible,fortraditionalmanufacturing.Yet,currentrenderingsoftwareisalsooftennotadequatefortakingfulladvantageofthecomplex,oftenbiomimetic,designsthatareacorestrengthofadditivemanufacturingproductiontechniques.Digitalrenderingof3Dobjectsforprintingoftendoesnotallowusersmuchcontroloverhowexactlyanobjectisprinted,yetthisfactorhasmaterialconsequences.Withinadecade,softwarewillbetterrealizethecomplexdesigndetailsthatadditivefabricationhardwareisalreadyexcellentatproducing.
Infact,thissteptowardbetterdesignsoftwarewillneedtobeginwithfundamentallabwork,sincetheexacteffectsthat3Dprintinghasonmaterials,particularlyusingdifferentbuildapproachesandenergylevels,arestillonlybeginningtobeunderstood.Anumberofnewmaterialsforuseindigitalfabricationprocesseshavebecomeavailableovertime,yettherehasbeennodisciplinedapproachtoscreeningfor
Within’sIntelligentCADSoftware:WithinEnhance
Source:WithinLabs
Softwareadvancesallowfabricatedproductstobeeasilytailoredtoindividualparameters.
Source:Invisalign
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suitablecandidatesoreventounderstandingtheprecisephysicalpropertiesthatthesematerialstakeafterprinting.
Theaviationindustry’sadoptionof3Dprintingwillbeabarometerofthisprocess.Thesectorisaleaderindemandforfabricatedpartsandtoolsandthisfurtherbasicresearchwillbeanecessaryprecursortothewidespreadadoptionof3Dfabricationoftentoutedasanindustrygoal.Forconsumersandregulatorstobecomecomfortablewithwidespreaduseofmission-critical3Dprintedparts,bettermodelingofthephysicsof3Dprintingandprintedproductswillbeessential.
Haptic design interfaces
Atamorebasiclevel,thesoftwarecapabilitiesorbitingadditivefabricationtechnologiesarepoisedtodiversify.Forhomeusersthistrendislikelytotranslateintomoreuser-friendlyprogramswithsimplerinterfaces.Forindustrialapplications,asuiteofnewoptionsandfeaturesislikelytocomeonline.Inbothcases,moreintuitivemodelingapproacheswillemerge,includingmulti-materialmodeling,3Dvisualization,andmorehaptic(gesture-based)interfaces.
TherecentintroductionofMicrosoft’sKinectsystemisapowerfuldemonstrationoftheearlymomentumofhaptictechnologies.Whilethedevicewasnotintendedtobeusedforsculptingapplications,inventiveuserscreatedanumberofsculptinghackswithinjustafewweeksofitsrelease.
Alongsimilarlines,theRepRapopen-source3Dprintingprojecthasalreadyseentheintroductionofahapticvirtual“potterywheel”whichcanbeusedtodirectlyshapeobjectsforprinting.Thesetechnologieswillcometogetherandimproveovertime,finallymovingtowardeventualmasscommercialization.
material advances
Reusable feedstocks
Materialsarealsoonthethresholdofanumberoflikelyadvances.Thepromiseoffullyrecyclablematerialscouldbethemostrevolutionaryinnovationonthehorizoninthisarea.Fromatechnicalstandpoint,thiscouldberelativelylow-hangingfruit,trackingothermaterialsrecyclingefforts.However,thepayoffintermsofboth3Dprintingpopularizationandtheimpactonoverallconsumptionpatternscouldbetremendous.
3Dprintingisoftencriticizedforitstendencytoencouragewastefulness.Soitisexcitingtoimaginethepossibilitiesofindividualconsumerssimplyreusingthesamehalf-poundorsoofhomogeneoushardpolymerprintingmaterialagainandagain,ratherthancyclingthroughhundredsofdisposableplasticproductsoverthecourseofalifetime.
Wearestillawaysawayfromthisgoal,buttherearesignalsthatweareheadedtowardatleastsomeapplicationsthatusematerialsmoreresponsibly.Forexample,ahacktotheMakerBothomeprintingsystemallowsuserstomaketheirownfeedstockfromusedmilkbottles.
ArtistBathshebaGrossmanincorporates3Dprinted“impossible”formsintoherwork.
Source:BathshebaGrossman
TheRepRapvirtualpotterywheelallowsuserstodirectlyshapeobjectsforprinting.
Source:RepRap
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Platforms and business models for reusable feedstocks
Iftakentoanextreme,thecapabilitytocompletelyreconfigureprintedobjectscouldultimatelytransformourattachmenttophysicalgoods.Indeed,workunderwayatCornellUniversityhintsatthispossibility.There,researchersattheComputationalSynthesisLabareworkingonaprojectfor“rapidfabricationofphysicalvoxels.”Essentially,theideaistoprintfutureproductsbypreciselyadheringthousandsofindividualmicroscopicspheresmadeofawidevarietyofdifferentmaterials.The“voxels”herecanbethoughtofasthe3Dphysicalequivalentofimagepixels.Theresearchersspeculatethatthesevoxelscouldbecompletelyrecycledbyusingasolventthatbreaksdowntheadhesive.
Thepotentialtoemployreusablefeedstocksinopenfabricationmayrelyontherelativeopennessofthearchitectureofthemachinesthemselves.Theremaybelittleincentivetofacilitatefullmaterialrecyclingunless3Dprintingmachineshaveanopenarchitecture.Otherwise,thehomefabricationindustrymayendupcopyingthehomeprintingbusinessmodel,inwhichtheprinteritselfisrelativelyinexpensivebutoffsetbylargeprofitmarginsoninkcartridges.Underthistypeofscenario,thedrivetoradicallyreducetheamountofmaterialusedissomethingfortheindustrytoactivelyblockratherthanencourage.
Biological feedstocks
Overtheshorterterm,biologicalapplicationswillgraduallybecomemorecentraltofabrication.Theprocesswilllikelybeginwithfood.Thereis,forexample,noreasonthatthestatuesstandingatopfutureweddingcakescouldnotbeaccurate3Dmodelsoftheactualcouplecreatedfromonlyafewphotoimages.Thiskindoffoodprintingislikelytobealargemarketfornext-stagecommercializationof3Dprinting.Becausemanycommonfoodsarealreadyinliquidformatsomepointintheirprocessing,itisnotdifficulttoimaginecommercialservices,homeproducts,andeventoysthattakeadvantageoftheseproperties.
Beyondthis,biomedicalapplicationscurrentlyunderdevelopmenthavemoreastonishingimplications.Ongoingstem-cellresearch,ratherthanfabricationper se,istherealmiracle,but3Dprintingoffersameanstopreciselypositionandshapethecellsforbroaderapplications.Indeed,successfulexperimentshavemanipulatedstemcellswithtechnologynomoresophisticatedthanastandardhomeink-jetprinter.
Thesuccessfuladditionofascaffoldingmaterialimpliesthat3Dfabricationwilllikelytakeitsplaceasanintegralpartoffuturetissueengineeringefforts.Whilestillmanyyearsfromclinicaluse,organicformsarealreadybeingprintedfromliveorganstemcells,aswasdemonstratedonstageatthe2011TEDconferencebypresenterDr.AnthonyAtala.
Onastillmorenovelfront,thiscapabilitywilllikelyextendintoexperimentswithin-vitvomeat.If“grownmeat”becomesaviableproductinthefuture,itislikelythat3Dprintingwillplayakeyroleinthistransition.
TheRecyclebotallowsuserstouseshreddedmilkbottlesasfeedstock.
Source:SocietyofPlasticsEngineers
AdepictionofCornellUniversityresearchintofabricationwithphysical“voxels”.
Source:CornellUniversity
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Printed electronics
Despitethelimitationsimposedbymaterials,3Dprintingisalreadyapproachingwhatmightsoundlikesciencefictiononsomefronts.Printedelectronics,forexample,arealreadybeingproducedbyanumberoflaboratoriesandarelikelytocometomarketwithinthenextdecade,bringingconsumerapplicationsrangingfromflexiblecircuitboardstorollabletelevisionscreensintoproduction.Withintenyears,thisprinted“digitalpaper”willbeacommonconsumeritem.
Thecapabilitiesofthetechniquemaybeenhancedwithintegrationintoothermanufacturingprocesses,includingmultipletreatmentsofprintedobjectssimilartochiplithographyprocessescurrentlyusedinthesemiconductorindustry.Rightnow,thesearemulti-stageprocessesinvolvingmultiplesteps,ratherthanprocessesforproducingfullyrealizedproducts.Shouldthisbeadominantapplication,additivefabricationmaybelessdemocratizedthaninitialenthusiastshavehoped,atleastovertheintermediateterm.However,thetrade-offhereisinexchangeforgreaterdegreesofcontroloverproductsandprocesses.
OrganprintinginDr.AnthonyAtala’sLab
Source:Dr.AnthonyAtala
“Electronicpaper”technologiesrelyonmanyofthesame
underlyingtechnologiesasadditivefabrication.
Source:Fujitsu
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Over the next decade, open fabrication will develop within a new
network of collaborative production. We will see a more diverse
manufacturingecosystemthatdependsasmuchonsocial factorsas
itdoesontechnologicalones.Inaworldwhereobjectsbecomedigital,
thesinglemostcriticalfactorshapingthisfuturemaybeourabilityto
develop a new framework for regulating information ownership and
knowledgesharing.Hereweexploretwoof themost importantopen
fabrication communities: the leading-edge makers, fabricators, and
designerswhoareexperimentingwith3Dtechnologies,andtheChinese
shanzhai,or “bandit,”manufacturerswhoarechanging thegame for
global entrepreneurship. Understanding how these groups approach
theideaofintellectualpropertyrevealscluesaboutthechallengesand
disruptionstocome.
The MakerBot Thingiverse
Anemergentcommunityofhackers,designers,andfabbersareapplyingtheprinciplesofDIY,open-source,andcooperativecollaborationaroundtwonewplatforms—theMakerBotThing-O-MaticdesktopprinterandtheThingiverseobjectrepository.Thiscommunityissettingthestageforwide-scalecombinatorialinnovationinfabrication,andpioneeringnewbusinessmodelsaroundopenstandards,openplatforms,andopenintellectualproperty.
China’s manufacturing innovators
Chinaiscurrentlyhometothemostrobustanddiversemanufacturingecosystemontheplanet,includinglegitimatebusinessesandtheshanzhai(pronouncedshahn-jai)or“bandit”manufacturers.Cuttingregulatorycornersbyoperatingoutsidethelawis,perhapsnotsurprisingly,agreatwaytomakeaprofit.Butitturnsoutthatitalsocreatesnewkindsofknowledgesharingandsparksbottom-upprocessinnovation.Thiscommunityissettingthestageforadisruptiveproductdevelopmentandmanufacturingnetworkthatwillenablefabricatorentrepreneursaroundtheworldtorealizetheirproductsatapaceandscalethatwillrivaltraditionalmanufacturersand,possibly,transformtheretaillandscape.
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Open fab community 1: the makerBot Thingiverse
Thegapbetweenthetheoreticalcapacitytoprintany3Dobjectandactuallyprintinganobjectin3Discurrentlyquitelarge.Firstandforemost,theThing-O-Matic—MakerBot’scurrentmodelprinter—retailsfor$1,299.ThenthereisthefactthattheThing-O-Maticdoesnotcomepreassembled.DependingontheDIYskillsofthepurchaser,constructionoftheprintertakesanywherefrom12to48hours.Finally,althoughitisnotafragilepieceofmachinery,theThing-O-Maticneverthelessrequiresalargeamountoftroubleshootinginordertostayinfunctioningorder.Indeed,anothertypeofdesktop3DprintercalledtheRepRapcostsslightlylessthantheThing-O-Maticbutrequiresagreatdealmoretechnicalexpertisetoconstructandkeepinworkingorder.
Furthermore,theabilitytocreate3DobjectswiththeThing-O-Maticisdependentonthefabricator’sabilitytocreateaccurate3Dmodels.Somecomputer-assisteddesign(CAD)softwareisfree—SketchupandBlender,forinstance—butthemorepowerfulcommercialsoftwarecancostbetween$500(fortoolsbyRhinoceros,forexample)and$5000(forAutocad’sDesignSuite).Whileitmaybeeasyforanexperienceddesignertoenvisionandfashionadigitalrepresentationofanobjectin3Dspace,currentlyno“intuitive”designsoftwareexists.Byprovidingdesignsfordownloadandmodification,thingiverse.comtakestheburdenofdesignoffthefabricator,asuserswithlimiteddesignskillcanalterexistingdesignsratherthanstartingfromfirstprinciples.
Forcompaniesconcernedaboutdigitaldesignpiracy,theabilitytouseCADtoolstocustomizeofficialdesignsofbrand-nameobjectsoffersapotentialfuturebusinessmodel.Inexchangeforpayingtodownloadanofficiallycertifieddesignthatcanbeprintedathome,consumersmaybeabletoworkwithinpreexistingparameterstocreateversionsofobjectsthataretailoredtopersonaltastesandneeds.
Thefabricatoralsoneedstoknowhowtoworkwiththematerialsdesktop3Dprintersarecapableofusing—currently,superheatedplasticextrudedinlayerstocreatethedesiredshape.Sincethemoltenplasticneedstimetocoolbeforeanotherlayerofmaterialcanbeadded,creatingsmallobjectsbecomesdifficult,asimproperlycooledplasticcanresultinanunevenbuildsurface,whichcanleadtodeformedobjects.Giventheneedforastablebuildsurface,itisalsocurrentlynotpossibletocreateobjectswithlargeoverhangingareas.
What does it mean to be a personal fabricator?
Clearly,thefutureofpersonalfabricationdependsonawidearrayofskillsandtoolsthatempowertheenduserwiththecapacitytocreateanyobjectthatheorshedesiresorneeds.Giventheselimitations,whatisperhapsmostremarkableisthenumberoftrulyinnovativeandusefulthingsthathavebeencreatedbythestill-nascentfabricatorcommunity.OnealreadyclassicexamplecomesfromtheThingiverseuserLaszlo.Laszlo’sblenderbroke,andinsteadoftryingtotrackdownreplacementpartsorhavingtothrowitawayandthenbuyanewone,Laszlocreatedamodelofthebrokenpartandprintedoutthereplacement.
Bloggingaboutthisprocess,Laszlonotesthatthemodelingofthereplacementparttookapproximately15minutes,indicatingthatheisclearlyapoweruserofmodelingsoftware.Evenso,asthedesignskillstoaccuratelymodelsimpleobjectsin3Ddigital
LowerManhattanhasbeen3DrenderedandsharedonThingiverseforanyonetodownload,modify,andprint.
Source:thingiverse.com
Lazslousedpersonalfabricationtorepairhisblender,completewithprintedgear.
Source:thingiverse.com
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spacebegintospread,itispossiblethatwewillbegintoenteraworldinwhichthelifecycleofsimplehouseholdgoods—likeLaszlo’sblender—canbeextendedthroughpersonalfabrication.
It takes a world to make MakerBot
Thepromiseof3Dprintingtechnologyisthatitempowerstheindividualtocreatethingsthathave,untilnow,requiredresourcesandcapitalthatwereonlyfeasibleforcorporationsortheverywealthy.Andalthoughpersonalfabricatorsdounlockawidearrayofcapacitiesfortheindividualuser,thesecapacitiesareenmeshedwithinanetworkofenablingpeople,communities,andtechnologies.TheexampleofLaszloshowshowatrained,financiallystableuserwhoispatientenoughtotolerateanimperfectmachinecancreateobjectsofgreatutility.ThenetworkofgoodsandknowledgethatLaszlohadtoharnessinordertogettothepointwherehecouldfixhisownblenderisnothingshortofastonishing.GoingthroughthepartslistfortheThing-O-Matic,aswellasthethingsneededinordertoconstructtheMakerBot(solder,wirestrippers,etc.),oneencountersatleastsixdifferentvisiblecountry-of-originstamps.TheillustrationsatrightshowsomeexamplesofwherevariousportionsoftheMakerBotoriginated.
Andthisisonlywhatisreadilyidentifiable.Ifoneweretofurthertracktheprovenanceoftheother50-oddpartsoftheThing-O-Matic,thislistoforigincountrieswouldgrow.Furthermore,thecommunityofpeoplewhoparticipateintheforumdiscussionsandhelpthreadsontheMakerBotwiki,andwhoprovidemodifiablemodelsonThingiverse,representatrulyglobalsourceofintellectualcapital.
Whichistosay,ittakesaworldtomakeaMakerBot.Theadventofpersonalfabrication—technologythathasthepotentialtochangethehumanrelationshiptopersonalgoods—isonlypossiblethankstothemobilizationofanumberofcomplicatedglobalmanufacturing,supply,andsupportchains.
Open fab community 2: China’s shanzhai
Aswelookoutoveranewlandscapeofopenfabtools,materials,andprocesses,weseechangestakingplaceinglobalmanufacturingthatwillaccelerateandcomplementopenfabrication.Chineseindustrializationisperhapsthemostimportant—particularlythesectorofChineseindustryknownasshanzhaimanufacturing.
Chinaistransformingtheworldeconomy,upsettingtheeconomicbalanceofpowertoagreaterextentthananyother“developingcountry”sincetheUnitedStatesemergedasaglobalsuperpower.Thisshifthasbeenunderwayforthepastseveraldecades,butitisonlyinthelasttenyearsthatmostglobalbusinesseshavestartedtoseetherealeffectsofthesechanges.We’llbeseeingalotmoreinthedecadetocome.By2021,accordingtoglobaleconomicforecasterIHS,China’sShanghai-JiangsuregionalonewillbeabiggereconomicplayerthantheNetherlands,Australia,Brazil,Mexico,Korea,orCanada.
Manufacturinghasbeenattheheartofthisgrowth.Afteramorethancentury-longrunasthetopmanufacturerfortheworld,theUnitedStatesnowstandsatnumbertwo.Chinaproduced19.8%oftheworld’smanufacturingoutputascomparedto
TheThing-O-Matic’stimingbeltsmoveitsbuildplatformandcome
fromtheUnitedKingdom.
Source:MathiasCrawford
Arduino,anopen-sourceelectronicsprototypingplatform
basedonflexible,easy-to-usehardwareandsoftware,
wasdesignedinItalybutlikelyassembledelsewhere.
Source:MathiasCrawford
Thepowerresistors,fromMexico,areresponsibleforheatingthe
nozzlethatdistributesthemeltedplastic.
Source:MathiasCrawford
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19.4%fortheUnitedStatesin2010.Muchofthishappenedinthelasttenyears.In2000,6.9%oftheworld’stotalmanufacturingcamefromChina;thatnearlytripledby2010.AnalystsexpectChinatomaintainthispositionforsometimetocome,butprobablynotatsuchafastrateofgrowth.OverthenextdecadetherewillbetwomaindriversofgrowthinChinesemanufacturing:(1)Chinesecompanieswillcontinuetomakegoodsfortherestoftheworld,and(2)theworld’sbusinesseswilllocatemorefactoriesinChinatoservicethegrowingChineseconsumermarket.
Chinese maker ecosystem
ProductioniswovenintodailylifeacrossChina.Overthepast60years,asocialistfocusonindustrializationdevelopedintoa“marketsocialist”export-ledeconomicmiracle.Alongtheway,ruralcommunitiesbuiltfactories,hundredsofmillionsofpeopleleftthelandforworkalongtheeasterncoast,androbustnetworksofindustrialclustersemerged.Theseregionalnetworksarecomprisedofthousandsoreventensofthousandsofcompaniesthatbenefitfromco-location,creatingacompetitivelocaleconomyofknowledge,skills,andprocesses.Theyhavebeenconcentratedinthecoastalregions,mostnotablyinthePearlRiverDeltanearHongKong,theYangtzeRiverDeltanearShanghai,andtheBohai-rimregionnearBeijing.
NewmanufacturingclustersarealsogrowingasindustrymovesintoChina’swesternhalf,drawnbycheaperlocallabor,growingdomesticconsumermarkets,andtherawmaterialsoftheless-developedwest.Regionalgovernmentshavebecomemoreinvolvedinbrandingthemselvesbyspecificindustries,foreverythingfromWuxiphotovoltaicstotheconsumerelectronicssectorinDongguan.AsYuZhou,professorofgeographyatVassarCollege,notes,“Theseclusterstakealongtimetoform.Eventhoughtheyseemtoreactfast,itisnotsomethingyoucanbuildquickly.”DuringaperiodinwhichAmericanmanufacturinghasdeclined,Chinahascreatedavibrantecologyofproductionthathasnoglobalrivalintermsofscaleanddiversity.“Itisnotjustaboutlowcost,”notesLiamCasey,CEOofsupplychainmanagementcompanyPCH,“butaboutskillsandecosystemandinfrastructure.”Thinkofitasafoundationforfuturegrowth—notjustfortheChinesenation,butforanewkindofmanufacturingthatwilldisrupttraditionalmodelsofinnovation,productcycles,andprofits.
China’stightlyintegratedmanufacturingwebhasalsobecomeaforcefortheproductionofblackmarketgoodsatascaleandpacethathasupendedglobalconsumerelectronics,apparel,andcosmeticsindustries,thoughthislistmaygrow.Itisagiantexperimentinglobalcommercewitherraticconformitytocurrentlawsonintellectualproperty.Thisexperimentoffersusoneevolvingmodelofopenfabricationthatraisesimportantquestionsforthefuture.
Shanzhai factories and knowledge sharing
Shanzhaifactories,namedafterthemountainfortresseshousingbanditsintraditionalChinesenovelssuchasOutlaws of Marsh,arethemurkyunderwebofChina’sindustrialclusters.Likethebanditsofyore,theylivebytheirowncode,stealfromtherich,andprovidetothepoor.Overthepastdecade,theshanzhaihavegrownfromsmall-timeproducersofshoddycopycatgoodstocaptureanestimated10%oftheglobalmobilephonemarket.Withtheiruniquefeatures,quirkydesigns,andlowprice-points,shanzhaiphonescanbefoundacrossIndia,Africa,Russia,andSouthAmerica.Infact,itwaslikelytheseaffordableChinese-madephonesthatfueledtheTwitterandFacebookrevolutionsoftheMiddleEast.Theshanzhaialsomakeathleticshoes,cosmetics,andclothing.
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Aswiththeirlegitimatecounterparts,theshanzhaiareanetworkofhighlyspecializedsubcontractorproducers.Small-scaleplayerscontinuouslyhonetheirpartofthedesign,manufacturing,packaging,anddistributionprocesses,shavingoffcostandimprovingquality.Allofthisrequiresanextraordinaryamountofnetworkcoordinationbetweenthedifferentparties.TheydonotinvestinmarketingresearchorR&D;theydon’townstores,stockfinishedgoodsinventory,hiresalesstaff,orfundlogisticsnetworks.Theyalsodon’tpaytaxesorconformtolaborandsafetyregulations.
Wheretheshanzhaigobeyondlawfulmanufacturersisintheirapproachtoknowledgesharing.It’snotsimplythattheyfloutWesternIPlawsandallformsofproprietaryknowledge—theyhavetheirsecrets,too.Buttheyhavediscoveredthatsharingcertainkindsofinformationleadstomoreprofits.Whatshouldinterestusisthattheirsystemalsoacceleratesnewinventions,manufacturing,andmorefine-grainedresponsivenesstolocalconsumertastes.
Shanzhai rules
Herearetherulestheshanzhailiveby:
• Donothingfromscratch;buildonthebestofwhatothershavealreadydone.
• Innovateprocessceaselesslyatsmallscalesforspeedandcostsavings.
• Shareasmuchasyoucantomakeiteasyforotherstoseeyourvalueandtoaddvaluetoyourprocess.
• Sellitbeforeyoumakeit.
• Actresponsiblywithinthesupplychaintopreserveyourreputation.
Theshanzhairegularlyexchangeideasandhaveakeensenseofwhoisgoodatwhat.EricPan,founderandCEOofSeeedStudio,reportsthatwithoutconcernforintellectualproperty,theshanzhaihavecreatedasetofpublic,oropen,toolsandprocesses,suchasanopenBillofManufacturing,openboards,andopencasesusedforphones,tablets,andotherelectronicdevices,thatmaketheirsupplynetworkstransparent.Keepingsecretsinthesupplychainhasacostthatshanzhaiarenotwillingtobear.“IfsharingmyspecswithyoumeansIcloseadealfaster,Iwillshareitwithyou.WaitingadaytosignanNDAmeansadaylongerIsitonmyinventory,”saysBunnieHuang,well-knownAmericanhackerandFounderandVPofHardwareEngineeringatChumby.
Sincethesystemreliesonoutsourcingeverything,asetofcommonprocessesalsohelpsefficientlycirculateworktothemostskilledplayers.Transparencyisaformofself-promotionandhelpsothersseewheretheycanaddvaluetoyoursupplychainwithoutyouhavingtosearchthemoutyourself.Thereisalsoacertainfatalismabouttryingtokeepnewinventionssecretinaworldofknock-offs.“Ifit’sgoingtobecopiedanyway,”saysDavidLi,socialgamingconsultantandForemanatChina’sfirsthackerspace,Xinchejian,“itmayjustaswellbeopenandshared.”
Whatdoesn’tgetsharediswhatliesattheheartoftheshanzhaivaluepropositionfortheconsumer.OntopofthehyperspecializedplatformoftheChineseindustrial
Ascreenshotfromanin-depthvideotouroftheShanzhaimarket.
Source:M.I.C.Gadget
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clusters,thesourceofindividualvalueforeachshanzhaimanufacturerisaneye-popping,never-endingdiversityoffeaturesanddesignsthatcreatenewconsumerexperiences.Takeatightlyintegratedandhighlycompetitivedesign-to-shelfsupplychain,combineitwithalackofIPenforcement,andyougetaclassofsmall-scalemanufacturerswhocanrespondmoreflexiblytotheemergingwhimsanddesiresofthemarket.
Evolutionary product “mash-ups”
Someofthethingsthatshanzhaimanufacturerscomeupwithareabitcomical:traditionalChineseslipperswithaNikeswooshorAdidasstripes,amobilephonethatcanstoreyourcigarettesandlightthemforyoutoo,phonesshapedlikebeetles,pandas,orMickeyMouse.
Others,especiallyintheconsumerelectronicssector,aregivingconsumersthingstheyactuallywant,butmultinationalcorporationshavebeenunwillingorunabletoprovide:aphonewithaheavybatterythatlastsseveralweeksonasinglecharge;orahandheldthatdoublesascommunicationdeviceandboombox.
Ina2009blogpostgivinghackersoutsideofChinatheirfirstglimpseofthemakersbehindshanzhai,BunnieHuangwrote:
“Theyaredoingtohardwarewhatthewebdidforrip/mix/burnormashupcompilations.…TheyarenotcopiesofanysingleideabuttheymixIPfrommultiplesourcestocreateanewheterogeneouscomposition,suchthattheoriginalsourcematerialisstilldistinctlyrecognizableinthefinalproduct.Also,likemanyWebmash-ups,thefinalresultmightseemnonsensicaltoamassmarket(liketheFerrariphone)butextremelyrelevanttoaselectlong-tailmarket.”
Transparentprocessesandhyperspecializationallowtheseverysmallfirmstocombinethecapacityintheregionandreactextremelyquicklytothingsthey’veneverseenbefore.Inakindofrapidevolution,nothingisdesignedfromscratch;everythingisbuiltontopofpreviousproducts.TheshanzhaisystemisunlikelytoinventthenextiPad.ButitwillinnovatefuriouslyontopoftheiPad,creatingawiderangeofnewtabletswithallkindsofdifferentfeatures(theyarealreadyfloodingglobalmarketsin2011).High-priceddesignandtechnologyisbecomingavailabletoaglobalmassmarketthroughshanzhai.
Future of shanzhai
InthepastdecadetheChinesemanufacturingsystemhasgrownfrommakingcomponentstomakingcomplexgoodsthatcompetewithmultinationalsinlower-endconsumermarketsaroundtheworld.Whatarethemajorforcesshapingtheevolutionofthenextdecadeofshanzhai?
• IncreasedenforcementofIPRChina’sentryintotheWorldTradeOrganizationin2001coincidedwiththegrowthoftheshanzhaiandtheirIP-flauntingprocesses.
TheMi-Obamaphone,modeledaftertheNokia5300XpressMusic,
wasproducedfortheKenyanmarketinjustafewmonthsafter
BarackObama’selectionaspresidentoftheUnitedStates,and
sellsforaround$30.00.
Source:cellular-news.com
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ShanzhaihavebeguntotakerealbitesoutofthemarketshareofmultinationalcorporationssuchasNokiaandwillimpacttabletandPCmakersaswellinthenextfewyears.Thehigherthestakes,thehigherthepressureontheChinesegovernmenttoenforceinternationalintellectualpropertyrights.InJanuary2011twoChineseagencies—theMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnology,andtheStateAdministrationofIndustryandCommerce—declaredacrackdownonshanzhaielectronicsmanufacturers.
• IncreasedR&DspendingResearchbyDr.YuZhouofVassarCollegeshowsthatChinesefirmshavesignificantlyincreasedtheirR&Dspendinginthepasttwoyears.Withtheirgrowingglobalsuccess,Chineseshanzhaiarecateringmoretoaglobalmarket.DavidLiofXinchejiannotesthatmanyoftheshanzhaiphonesnowsoldinChinacomepreinstalledwithTwitterandFacebookapps.WhilebothoftheseservicesareblockedinChina,thephonesaretargetingusersinothercountries.
• MovefromshanzhaitolegitimatebusinessInmanycases,Shanzhaifactoriesaimtobecomelegitimatebusinessesanddeveloptheirownbrands.TheChinesegovernmentseemstobeallowingsomebootlegbusinessestogrow,hopingtheywillfollowthispath.AsXinhuaNewsreports,ChinesehybridvehicleandbatterymanufacturerBYD,inwhichWarrenBuffethasa10%stake,beganasashanzhaiplantproducingcheapbatteries.
Designedforyoungwomen,thisphonetakestheshapeofa
compactmirror.
Source:clonedinchina.com
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As the foundational technologies of open fabrication unleash new
innovation ecosystems—be they DIY grassroots hackers or agile,
globalizedmanufacturingnetworks—theywillenabledisruptivefutures
thattransformthematerialworld.Thefollowingforecastsaresnapshots
of plausible futures that can serve as provocations for strategic
discussions.Asyoureadtheseforecasts,thinkabouthowyouoryour
organization would respond if this future came true. Alternately, ask
yourselfhowyouwouldactdifferentlytodayifyouknewforcertainit
wouldcometrue.
democratizing industrial design
Intheearly2000s,keepingaWebdiarywasafairlychallengingtaskthatinvolvedcodingWebpagesandmanuallyarchivingandindexingoldposts.Thedevelopmentofopen-sourceandhostedbloggingplatformsmadeitmucheasierforaneophytetodesignandmanagea“Weblog”oftheirdailyinsights.ThesetoolsdeskilledtheprocessbytakingtheneedforWebdesignandsystemadministrationoutoftheloop,leavingcreativedirectionastheblogger’ssoletask.
Asimilartrendisatworkinopenfabrication.Whileit’snotyetassimpleaswritingablogpost,advancesindesignsoftwareareautomatingmanyofthemoretechnicalaspectsofobjectdesignandpre-printpreparation.Thisdemocratizationofindustrialdesignwillcertainlyleadtoasmanypoordesignsasthereareunreadblogsbutwillalsoexpandthecadreofdesignersfarbeyonditscurrentbounds.
Newcollaborativedesignprocessesthatapplycrowdsourcingprincipleswillbringsomeoftherapid,lightweightinnovationpotentialofopen-sourceandwikistoindustrialdesign.Newobjectswillbeabletobreakfreeoflong-lead-timedesigncycles,aswidespreadavailabilityofobjectdesignfileswillallowactualuserstomodifyandadaptgoodstosuitparticularneeds,ortoaddressunforeseenproblemsintheobject’simplementation.
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Thisfutureislargelycontingentontwothings:(1)thedevelopmentofcommunitiessuchasThingiverse,whichareaimedatfosteringanopenexchangeofdesignfilesandideasabouthowobjectsaretobemade,and(2)improvedaccessibilityofevermorepowerfuldesignsoftwaretoindividualswithlimitedornodesignexperience.Designconcernsthatsoftwarewillhavetotakeintoaccountincludetheaestheticsofobjects,specificlimitationsofmaterialsusedinbuilding(forexample,theneedforplasticlayerstosolidifypartiallybeforeanewlayerisadded),andtheload-bearingcapacitiesofthematerialsthatareusedtocreateobjects.
ThenextgenerationofCADsoftwarewilltakeintoaccountthephysicalandmolecularcapabilitiesofobjectsusedinprinting.Userswillbeabletoindicatethestressesthatwillbeplacedonobjectsandwillbenefitfromcomputationalprocessesbuiltintothesoftwarethatwillhelptheusercreatedesignsthataredurableandrepresentativeofthedesiredfinalaesthetic.SoftwaresuchasWithinEnhanceisleadingthechargetointernalizereal-worldphysicsandmaterialcapabilitiesintothedesignsitcreates.
Thiswillalsobedrivenbyalargerculturaltrendthatincreasinglyvaluesdesign.PaulGoldberger,architecturecriticforThe New Yorker,sumsupthenewemphasisondesignnicely:
“Ithinkthetrulytransformativedevelopmentintheworldofdesignoverthelastgenerationhasbeenitsevolutionintothemainstream.Weareamuchmorevisualculturethanweoncewere;peoplecaremoreaboutdesignandarchitecture,andithasbecomemoreaccessibletothem.Thatdoesn’tmeaneverythingissuddenlygreat,andthatwe’reinsomekindofdesignnirvana.Alotofwhatwedonowislousy,asitalwayshasbeen.Butifyoulookatthedifferencebetween,say,aniPhoneandaPrincessphone,oraflat-screentelevisionandthefaux–FrenchProvincialTVcabinetswegrewupseeing,orthedifferencebetweenIKEAandthefurniturestoresourparentsshoppedin,youseehowmuchmoresophisticatedasworksofdesigntheobjectspeoplelivewithtodayare.”
The long now of materials
The“longnow,”atermcoinedbyBrianEno,seekstochallengepeopletostretchouttheirunderstandingofwhat“now”meansandtocontemplateaslowersenseoftime.Nothingcouldbetterexplainoneofthemostcrucialretardingforcesonthepaceofinnovationinopenfabrication—theslowflowofnewmaterialstotheopen-fabbingcommunity.Asoneexpertworkshopparticipantremarked,“Wewouldbeluckytogetonenewmaterialadecade”for3Dprinting.Manyotherexpertssharethispessimism.Whiletoolsadvancequickly,andsoftwaremoreslowly,materialsarethelaggardinopenfabrication.
Manycolorsarecurrentlyavailablefor3Dprinting,butonlyinasmallrangeofmaterials.
Source:SolidSmack.com
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Theslowpaceofmaterialsinnovationistheresultofthemessinessofstuff.Openfabbingisoftencomparedtoopen-sourcesoftware,butthefeedstocksforopen-sourcesoftwarewere1sand0s;thefeedstocksforfabbingcouldpotentiallynumberinthehundredsofthousandsofdifferentsubstanceswithavastrangeofphysicalpropertiesandpotentiallytoxicchemicals.
Thesepropertiesarecloselyguardedsecretsandnotwidelyavailabletothepublic.Today,thereisnoequivalentopenrepositoryofmaterialsdatasheets,andthemovementhasnotyetmobilized(orresortedtocreating)itsownmaterials—astrategywe’veseeninopenbioengineeringcommunitiesthathavedeveloped,forexample,theRegistryofStandardBiologicalParts.Untilthisinformationgapisplugged,materialchoicesfor3Dprintingwillbesharplylimited.
extreme customization
Thecombinationofimprovedinterfaces,3Dprintingtechnology,and3Dsoftwarewillunleashanewworldofextremecustomization.IndustrialdesignerScottSummit,co-founderofBespokeInnovations,isusing3Dmodelingandprintingtopioneeranewapproachtothecreationofprostheticlimbs.Summit’scompanyusestheexactshapeandmeasurementofpeople’sbodiestocreatecustomwearables:abackpackforfirefightersthatismoldedindividuallytoeachuser’sbody,oraprostheticlowerlegpreciselymodeledontheshapeoftheother,healthylegandcustom-designedforthewearer.
Wewillalsoseeallkindsofcreativefunproductsderivedfromunique,individualphysicalcharacteristics.Inearly2011,hackerartistsbuilta“BeYourOwnSouvenir”installationonthestreetsofBarcelona.ThreeKinectlightscannerscreatedvolumetricreconstructionsofposesstruckbypassers-by,thenprintedthemon-the-spotwithaRapMan3.13Dprinter.Imagineaworldinwhichyoucouldcaptureanimageofanythingyoudidorsaw,convertittoasoftwaremodel,andsendittoaprinter.
See it, capture it, make it
InChina,theadventofhigh-resolution3Dscanners,andofphotosynthesistechnologythatallowsuserstocreate3Dmodelsoutofmultiplephotosofanobject,offersanotherpathforincreasingtheusabilityofdesktopfabricators.Theabilitytoproducerelativelyhigh-fidelityapproximationsofexistingobjects,whencombinedwiththeabilitytomodifyandrefinedigitaldesignswithinarestrictedsetofparameters,createsanopportunityforfabricatorstorapidlyidentifyanduseobjectsintherealworldasthebasisfortheirparticularnicheneeds.Imagineseeingsomethingyoulike,takingaseriesofphotoswithyourphone,uploadingtoyourcomputer,andaskingittogotoworktocreatea3Ddesignoftheobject.
Indeed,earlyversionsofthistypeoftechnologyalreadyexist.Thing-O-MaticproducerMakerBotIndustriessellsa3Dscannerkitthatallowsfabricatorstocreatesimplewire-framemodelsofobjectsintheirenvironment.Thekitfunctionsby“(1)projectingalineontoanobject,(2)recordingtheline’spositionrelativetoanyflatreference,andthen(3)computingthe3Dgeometrybasedonthosenumbers.”
Personalizedsnap-oncoversforprostheticlimbsareanexampleof
totemicobjects.
Source:BespokeInnovations
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InChina,3Dtechnologyisbeingusedtocapture,model,andreproducedeterioratingancientBuddhiststatuesfromtheLongshanGrottoes,offeringaglimpseintoanewformofhistoricalpreservation.
Furthermore,recently-releasedTrimensionalsoftwaregivesmobilephoneuserstheabilitytocreate3Dmodelsusingnothingmorethantheirmobilephones,andthenallowsthemtoexportthesemodelsasfileformatsthatcanbeprintedon3Dprinters.Itisonlyamatterofyearsbeforethecomputationalpowerofcloudcomputingwillmakeitpossibleforhigh-resolutionimagesofanyobjectinthebuiltenvironmenttobetransformedintoa3Dprintablemodel.
New blue-collar skills
EconomistPaulKrugmanrecentlyarguedthatacollegeeducationisnolongeraguarantorofeconomicsuccess,asautomationandoffshoringofmanywhite-collarjobsreducesdemandforcollegegraduates.Buttheriseofopenfabrication,andagrowingbodyof“tinkerers,”assciencefictionwriterDavidBrincallsthem,maychartapathtoare-invigoratedbluecollarworkforcewieldingsophisticatednewskills.AsKrugmanargues:
“Mostofthemanuallaborstillbeingdoneinoureconomyseemstobeofthekindthat’shardtoautomate.Notably,withproductionworkersinmanufacturingdowntoabout6%ofU.S.employment,therearen’tmanyassembly-linejobslefttolose.”
IfKrugmanisright,openfabricationcouldbeapowerfulgrowthaccelerantforastablebaseofnon-routinemanufacturingjobs.RatherthanbeingaHailMarypasstosaveAmericanindustryasweknowit,openfabricationwillbethenextstageofitsevolution.
Fromapublicpolicyperspective,thisstronglypointstowardtheneedfortrainingin3Ddesignandprinting.Indeed,inarecentreportcommissionedbytheU.S.OfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,thetopfiverecommendationstothegovernmentwereallfocusedonbeefingupsupport,curriculum,andfacilitiestoteachdesignandmanufacturinginpublicschoolsandregionalmanufacturingclusters.
Fromalargerculturalperspective,manufacturingitselfisenjoyingaresurgenceinthepubliceye.Chrysler’s“ThisistheMotorCity,thisiswhatwedo”Superbowladin2011,whichstarredDetroitrapperEminem,receivedacclaimfromcriticsandfansalike.Tagline:“ImportedfromDetroit.”
TheMakerBotCyclops3DScannerallowsfabricatorstomakewire-
framemodelsofobjects.
Source:Makerbot.com
DavidBrin’ssciencefictionnovelTinkerersdescribesafuture
renaissanceoffabricationskills.
Source:DavidBrin
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Community workshops, not personal desktops
Giventhesetofrawmaterials,designskills,andmanufacturingcapabilitiesthatarerequiredforanindividualtoharnessthepowerofa3Dprinter,wedonotthinkitlikelythatinthenexttenyearstherewillbeapersonal3Dprinterineveryhouse.Housingthematerialsaloneissomethingthatmanyeco-awarehouseholdswouldshyawayfrom.Amorerealisticpossibilityforthedistributionof3Dprinterswouldbetohousethemincommunityresourcecenterssuchasschools,smallbusinesses,andcommunity“fablabs.”Thesephysicallocationscouldserveasrepositoriesforadiversearrayofmaterials,user-generateddesigns,andresourcesforhelpingfabricatorscreateandmodify3Dmodels.
Afeworganizations,includingTechShopinMenloPark,California,andtheWeb-based100KGaragesarealreadystartingtoimplementthesepossibilities.Theyandsimilarfirmswillexpandtheirroleinthecommunity,actingaspartworkshop,library,parttoolshed,andpartcoffeeshop.PeoplewhohavepurchasedthelatestIKEAprintableMålmolampdesignonline,forexample,willbeabletocomeheretomakeafewcustomizationsinconsultationwiththeirneighborhooddesignexpert.Perhapstheywillshortentheheightofthelampshadeorexpandthediameterofthebasebeforeprintingouttheirownuniqueversionoftheproducttotakehome.
10 to 10,000: the sweet spot for 3d printing
Thesweetspotfor3Dprintingislikelytofallsomewherebetweenone-offcreationofuniqueobjectsandmassproduction:shortrunsof10to10,000units.Thisisbecause3Dprintingisnotcost-competitiveforsingleobjectsvshandcraftedproduction,norisitsoforcreatingthemassivenumberofstandardizedpartsthatthemoderneconomyrelieson—forinstance,nuts,bolts,andscrewsofuniformsizeandquality.
Anexampleofthismodelcurrentlyexistsformanyelectronicsgoods.Sincemanycomponentssuchascircuitboardshaveperiodicdemandthatdoesn’tnecessarilyrequirethescaleofcentralizedmassproductionandglobaldistribution,specializedtoolshavebeendevelopedthatallowsmallbusinessestocreateversionsofcentrallydesignedcomponentsinrelativelysmallbatches.
Similarly,theremaybeanopportunityforlocalbusinessestoactasthefabricationanddistributionhubsforprofessionallydesignedobjectsthathavesporadicdemand.Thesehubswouldbenefitfromprovidingofficiallycertifiedversionsofbrand-designedobjects,avoidingqualitycontrolissuesthatmightotherwisebeassociatedwithhome3Dprinting.
Theglobalsuccessofshanzhaiproductssuggeststhatconsumersarehungryforthingstheycan’talwaysafford—andthatmanyareevenwillingtobuynon-brandedproductsiftheymeettheirneeds.Wherepricepointsarecreatingunder-servedmarkets,expectnewmicro-manufacturerstojumpinwithlocallyrelevantproductsthatcanbemademorequicklyandforfarlessoverheadthanthoseproducedandmarketedbylargecompanies.
TechShopsmayserveasthecopyshopsofthefuturefor
3Dprinting.
Source:FlickruserSolsken
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multi-purpose, safer materials
Thefutureofopenfabricationwilllargelybedeterminedbythematerialsthatareusedby3Dprinting.Machinescurrentlycannotuseadifferentiatedfeedstock—thatis,theycanonlyprintonetypeofmaterial,oronetypeofmaterialatatime—andthusthetypeofobjectthatcanbeprintedislimited.
Onepossiblefuturethatwouldobviatethematerialsconstraintwouldbethedevelopmentofcarbonprintingtechnology.Currentexperimentationwithcarbonnanotubesadditivemanufacturinghintsattherevolutionarypotentialofthistypeofprinting.Sincecarboncanbeconfiguredinallotropesrangingfromsuper-softgraphitetoultra-harddiamond,theresultingcreationscouldtakeonanynumberofcomplexshapes.Asaresult,theseobjectswouldhavemuchgreaterutilitythanthecurrentplastic-onlymodels—perhapscombiningcarbonfiberanddiamondtoproduceextremelyresilientandintricateworksofart.
Alargeconcernwithcurrentplastic-basedprintingisthatthecommonplasticmaterialsused—notablyABS(acrylonitrilebutadienestyrene)—arenotparticularlybeneficialtohumanhealth.Producingplasticobjectsmayinduceconcernsabouthealthandsafetyfactors(especiallyifmaterialsprintedareusedforkids’toysorforobjectsthatcomeintocontactwithfood).Incontrast,carbon-basedobjectswouldnotbesubjecttothesamescrutiny.
maker culture meets the web
TheDIYcultureoftheMakermovementthatweforecastthreeyearsagohasbenefitedgreatlyfromusingtheWebasaknowledgesharingandsocialcommunicationmedium.However,WebplatformsattheheartoftheMakermovement,suchasInstructables,arenothighlystructuredintermsofhowtheyshareinformationaboutproductionandtools.Asaresult,we’venotyetseenthesophisticateddistributedformsofhighlystructuredcollaborationasweseeroutinelyinopen-sourcesoftware,forinstance.
ThedevelopmentoflibrariesanddatastandardsforencodingmanufacturingspecificationsandsharingthemelectronicallywillbringWebscaletotheopenfabricationmovement.Thiswavewillbedrivenbyprojectssuchasskdb,whichdescribesitselfasan“apt-getforhardware,”comparingitselftoacriticalpieceofLinuxsoftwareusedtodistributesourcecodeandmachineinstructionsforcompilingitintoworkingsoftware.Forobjects,suchadatapackagewouldconsistof3DCADmodels,abillofmaterials,andfabricationinstructions.ThiscommondatastructurewillbringanewlevelofinteroperatilibyanduniversalitytotheMakermovement.
global crowdsourced micromanufacturing
China’sshanzhaimanufacturingnetworksarepoisedtorespondtothedesignsand3Dprototypesoftherestoftheworld’sfabricatorentrepreneurs.Overthenextdecadewewillseethegrowthofanewkindofproductdevelopmentwheredesignerscreatethingstomatchthetastesofsmall-scalemarketsanduseChinesemanufacturingtorampupproductioninafewweeksormonths.
TaketherecentexampleofTikTokandLunatikMulti-touchWatchKits,aprojectdreamedupbyAmericandesignerScottWilson.Wilsonwantedtomakeawell-
Eightallotropesofcarbon:(a)diamond,(b)graphite,(c)Lonsdaleite,(d)C60
(Buckminsterfullereneorbuckyball),(e)C540,(f)C70,(g)
amorphouscarbon,and(h)single-walledcarbonnanotube
orbuckytube.
Source:Wikipedia
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designed,well-engineeredwatchstrapthatwouldholdtheiPodNano.HepostedavideodescriptiononthecrowdsourcedfundingsiteKickstarter,askingfor$15,000.Donorswereurgedto“beapartofmakingacoolproductthatnooneelsewouldtaketheriskon.”TheproductbecameKickstarter’sbiggestsuccesstodate,attracting13,512backerswhopledgednearlyamilliondollarsinsupport,injust30days.
Justliketheshanzhaimakers,Wilsonhadsoldhisproductbeforehemadeit.Andliketheshanzhai,hereliedonChina’sinnovativemanufacturingnetworkstoproducehisfinalproducts,closingonadealtomanufacture200,000watchbandswithin60daysofreceivingfunds.WilsonpostedvideosofhistriptoShanghaiforbackerstowatchthemanufacturingprocesscloseup.
Shanzhai design grows up
Aswehaveshown,China’sshanzhaimakerscanrespondtoevolvingconsumerneedsmorequicklythananymanufacturingsystemintheworld.Whiletheshanzhaidon’thavetheskillstocreatenewtechnologies,theyaretop-of-classinabsorbingnewproducts,iteratingsmallprocessinnovations,andbuildingoutadizzyingvarietyofnewdesigns.Whenanewproductordesignlooksgoodtoawholesaler,itisproducedinsmallbatchesandquicklyreplicatedifitcatcheson.
Currentlythereisadistinctlackofskilled3Dmodelersintheshanzhaisector.Asindustrialdesignsoftwarebecomesmorepowerfulanduser-friendly,however,Chineseprogrammersanddesignerswillskillup.NewdesignswillbefunneledintotheChinesenetworkviathegrowthofcollaborativemicromanufacturingrelationshipsbetweenfabricatorentrepreneursintheWestandChinesemakersintheEast.AndChineseentrepreneurswillbegintotakeadvantageoftheopendesignlibrariesnowbeingdeveloped,toproducetheirowngoods.
Localdesigntasteswillbegintobeaccessibletodesignersaroundtheworld,whowilliterate,improve,andexpandthemtocreatedesignmash-upsatagreaterscalethanwe’veyetseen.Theprocessinnovationsthatnowdrivetheconstantevolutionofshanzhainetworkswillslowlybecomedesigninnovations,makingboththeshanzhaiandChina’slegitimatemanufacturersmoresuccessfulontheworldmarket.
Tissue printing
Advancesincomputingoverthelastquartercenturywerethekeytounlockingthescienceoflife.Futuregenerationsarelikelytoviewbioinformaticsasthemostimportantandfar-reachingapplicationforcomputing.WhiletheWebandsocialmediaallowourcivilizationtoevolveinnewways,computationalbiologyisallowingustoredefinelifeitself.Youcouldsaythatdoingbiologyiswhatcomputingwasmeantfor,inthegrandschemeofhumanhistory—everyotherusewasjustafootnote.
Inasimilarvein,3Dprintingusingbiomaterialswillallowustoproducelivingtissuecheaply,cleanly,andefficiently,transformingthewaywethinkoforganisms,bodies,andfood.
Inthatsense,thecurrentwaveofexperimentationandinnovationaround3Dprintingwithinorganicmaterialsmayjustbeatransitionalphase.It’smerelyastepping-stonethatultimatelyservestocreateacadreoftechnicalimprovementsthatinnovatorswho
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understandthistechnologycanapplytolifescienceinthefuture.We’llneedbiologiststobecomeasgoodatusing3Dprintingasmanyaretodayatcomputing.
Inthisview,3Dprintingusinginorganicmaterialsisactuallyquitedull—therearealimitedrangeofapplicationswhereitmakesmoresensethantraditionalmanufacturing,whichisalreadyhighlyevolvedafteracentury.Buttissueproductionmust,bynecessity,alwaysbebespoke.Everyoneofthe6,000liverstransplantedintheUnitedStateseachyear,ifproducedusing3Dstemcellprinting,wouldhavetobecustomized.There’snootherwaytodoit.
wild card: self-replication
Overthelongerterm,self-replicationisanotherintriguingpossibility.Ifaprinter,orperhapsacombinationofprinters,weretoachievethematerialfacilitynecessarytoprintmultiplereplicasofitsownelectronicandphysicalcomponentswithrelativelysimpleuserinvolvement,theresultcouldbeamanufacturingphenomenoncommonlyfoundinbiologybutneverbeforeachievedbyhumanproduction—geometricexpansion.
ThisistheexplicitaimoftheRepRapproject,anopen-sourceefforttoproduceaself-replicatingprinterforhomeuse.WhileRepRapislikelyasignalofthepossibilityhereratherthanafulfillmentofit,theimplicationsareeye-opening.Ifsuccessful,digitalfabricationcapabilitieswouldnaturallytendtowardubiquity,muchascomputinghas.Beyondthis,theprocessoftechnologicalevolutionthatunderliesthematurationofalltechnologieswouldbelogarithmicallyaccelerated.Withinsuchascenario,itisdifficulttoimaginethatdigitalfabricationwouldnotovertaketraditionalmanufacturinginnearlyeverysphereofproduction.
Ultimately,whilethisdevelopmentislikelymuchfurtherthanadecadefromrealization,itshouldnotbedismissedassciencefiction.Proof-of-conceptforthetechnologyofself-replicationalreadyexistsinnature,andwe,alongwithallotherorganisms,areproductsofit.Thisdirectionistheexplicitlonger-termtargetofmuchofthenanotechnologyresearchcurrentlyunderway.
Indeed,thisnaturaltransitiontowardnanofabricationmaybethemostrevealingperspectivefromwhichtoviewthefutureofdigitalfabrication.Whilethenextdecadeislikelytoseerelativelymarginalmaterialandsoftwareimprovements,theseinturnwillhavesubtlefeedbackeffects,nudgingmanufacturingasawholetowardmorerefinedlevelsofmaterialmanipulation.Fromthisperspective,itisonlyamatteroftime—albeitapotentiallylongtime—beforedigitalfabricationtakeshold.
Asmuchasanythingelse,thenextdecadeislikelytolaythegroundworkforsubsequentdevelopmentsandthenearcertaintyoffarmorecriticaladvancestocome.
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TakeawayS5
IFTFheldaone-dayworkshopattheAutodeskGalleryinSanFrancisco
onApril19,2011toexploretheimplicationsofthisreportforbusiness
andpolicy innovationover thenextdecade.Thekeytakeawaysfrom
ourconcludingdiscussionsarehighlightedhere.
key obstacles
Thegroupraisedthreetop-levelissuesthatlimitthepotentialgrowthofOpenFabrication.
• Designtoolsremaintoospecialized.Realitycapturetoolsand3Ddesignsoftwareareundergoingconsumerization(seeAutodesk’slatestconsumeroffering,PhotoFly,whichgenerates3Dmodelsfromordinaryphotographsandexportsthemtostandard3Dformatsforfurtherediting),buttheywillneedtobecomemucheasiertouse.Mainstreamaudiencesofeducators,students,artists,andothermakerswillneedmuchmoreuser-friendlytools.(Seeourforecast,DemocratizingIndustrialDesign.)
• Intellectualpropertyframeworksfavorbigplayers.Withoutmoreflexiblestructures,legallyprotectedspacesofinnovationmaybedisincentivestoinnovation.Thepremiseofopennessisthatmoreparticipantsmeanfasterinnovation.Thelegalroleofpatents,copyright,andtrademarksinthemanufacturingsector,atleastindevelopedcountries,willneedtobereinterpreted.(SeeourforecastIP—TheGreatUncertainty/PatentsandInnovation.)
• AGordianknotlimitstheapplicabilityof3Dprinting.Mostproductsareassembliesofvariousparts,andthematerialfeedstocksusedtocreatethemarecomplex.Thematerialsdevelopmentcycleisveryslowfor3Dprintingandthereisareallimittowhatcanbecreatedwithoutsignificantadvancesinmulti-materialprocesses.(Seeourforecast,TheLongNowofMaterials.)
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key opportunities
Afteradayofimmersioninthefutureofopenfabrication,clientshighlightedfourstrategicimplications:
• Openfabricationwillextendthelifeandvalueofaproductovertime.Dynamiclocalaccesstoreplacementpartscoulddovetailwiththedesireformoreresource-lightlifestyles.Thiscouldalsofillthevastneedforreplacementpartsforout-of-productionconsumerelectronics,vehicles,andtools.
• Aworldofopenfabricationwilltransformtheroleoftheretailer.RetailerswillneedtoofferaccesstoamuchwiderrangeofSKUs,andpeoplewillneedmorefilterstomanagelongtailmanufacturedgoods.
• Openfabricationwillenableextremecustomization,creatingmorephysicallynuancedandemotionallymeaningfulgoods.Wewillbeabletopersonalizeourphysicalobjectstoamuchgreaterextent,tyingthemnotsimplytowordsandimagesthataremeaningfultous,buttoourownphysiologiesandactualenvironments.
• Openfabricationoffersnewdevelopmentopportunitiesformanufacturersanddesigners.Thereisagroundswellofinterestintheconvergenceofmanufacturing,design,anddigitaltools,comingfromawidevarietyofcommunities.Today,thesecommunitiesareonlylooselyconnected.Thereisalotofspaceforcompaniestoplayaleadingroleinhelpingtogrowthisconversation,createnewtools,andbuildnewproductsandservices.
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