the future of music and digital content: mobile, social and... paid?

The Future of Music & Digital Content: Mobile, Connected,

Social, Open... and Paid?by Gerd Leonhard

www.mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

We have a problem...

Disconnect fans to... sell more Music???

Source: Slideshare

So what are those new behaviors?• Access now comes before ownership• All-you-can-eat and unlimited offers, flat-fees

& bundles are critical to success• ‘Feels Like Free’ is a crucial step to conversion• Paying with attention (i.e. advertising) is ok!• The Users are gaining power, all the time

Welcome to the People formerly known as Consumers!

Source: istockphoto

The Toll-Booth Challenge: how tomake $$ with Access rather than Copies

Music is first a Service & an Experience - and only

then (maybe) a Product.

Like it or not:Connected people ‘consume’ differently

Sharing is the Key Driver

Access trumps Copy

Time to accept, adapt and move forward!

Source: kk.org

Copies don’t equal $$ anymore

From Fixed to MobileFrom Physical to Digital

From Top-Down to SocialFrom Consumers to Users

From Push to Pull

Soon:

The New Premium

The new Normal

The irreversible shift in Content & Media

Content

ContentContext

Curation

CommunityInterface

Timeliness

Convenience

Time to focus on the New Generatives

100%

Content / Copy

5%15%

15%

10% 20%

15%

20%

ContentContextCurationTimelinessEmbodiment / PackagingRelevanceOthers

Music Commerce 2.0: don’t try to sell what is Ubiquitous - sell what is

Scarce

Welcome to another pricing logic

0

25

50

75

100

Was Will be

Price per Song Numbers of Users

New revenues from new collaborations

TV

Internet Mobile

Telecom

Content

Advertising

Hybrid Models in many variations

Personal, digital consumer ‘Piracy’ is simply just Market Failure

Source: CEA.org

This will not work

We have been here before

LICENSED!

A Public License + Build-in Revenues

+ Proportional Distribution

A new and very lucrative Ecosystem can emerge on-top of the flat-rate

Flat Rates, Bundles, Revenue-Sharing

Live-Concerts, Web-Casts, Virtual Shows...

Mobile Device Applications & Software

High Definition & Premium Media

Community Premium Services

Many other New Generatives

Permission

We don’t pay to eat all the food... we pay for access

Why this is good for the Creators

Attention turns automatically into $$

Distribution is available to everyone, by default

Many up-selling options will emerge

Direct market access is included

Marketing costs will be greatly reduced

Let’s change this film

The Music Industry needs to switch to

OpenOpen licenses

Open innovationOpen distributionOpen competitionOpen partnershipsOpen technologies

Open data standards

Not Control and Protection but Engagement and Conversion

The rising tide floats all boats: Permission, Collaboration and $-Sharing is key

So why is there still so little revenue from Youtube, Myspace, Facebook...?

•Advertisers are always 2-3 years behind•Lack of permission for premium and legal

content slows adoption•Lack of public license has deterred new

investors, and killed many startus•Mobile broadband and smart mobile

devices are just now starting to take off

Every large audience can be monetized

Source: Clay Shirky

Huge opportunities in curation, filtering, meaningful aggregation

versus

Free gets you to a place where you can ask to get paid.Quote by Fred Wilson, Union Square Ventures www.avc.com

Free to paid: examples

I pay - You pay - 3rd party pays

Why I have spend $1000+ on iStockphoto

• Good quality images• Finding the right photo is quick and easy• The rights (licenses) are cleared• The price is right (well... mostly)

• I don’t pay just for the content - I pay for ease of use, peace of mind, the interface, service & curation...!

Content<>Cloud<>$

New ways to package

New ways to ‘sell’

Virtual concerts and venues

Music Industry

LegislationGovernmentRegulation

BrandsAgencies

AdvertisersMedia

Google China President Kai Fu Lee: “Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,

is the key to sustainable growth”

Telecom

Summary

My Music 2.0 Book

www.music20thebook.com (Lulu, print)

www.payingwithattention.com (free PDF)

www.musicfutures.com (freee mobile version)

email me at gerd@mediafuturist.comtwitter.com/gleonhard

facebook: gleonhardmore presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for your time