the future of japan

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Japan

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

The Future of Our World

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

When you think about

your personal future

what do you feel?

ExcitementHope

Uncertainty

the future of our world,

what do you feel?

ExcitementHope

Uncertainty

Guy DaunceyA Presentation to Students

at Vancouver Island University, July 2014

Building a New Future

What is your vision of the future?

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

XishuangbanNa Residence Sustainable Modern Bamboo High-Rise

in China

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Bird Island: Zero Energy Home in Kuala Lumpur

What is ourREALITY?

実在

We’ve come a long way from this….

To this …

but…

Everyone wants to go shopping…

Smithore Dreamstime.com

We’ve also come to this…

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

?……

If everyone lived like Canadians or Japanese,

we'd need two more Earths

to provide the resources.

Live Rainforest

Dead Rainforest

What went wrong?

How did this…

Domestic

Product

国内総生産

turn into this? …

Depletionof the

Planet

惑星のグロス枯渇

Do you think there are too many people

on the Earth?

YES NO ?

Do you think we consume too much?

YES NO ?

消費する

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

地球規模の気候変動

Almost all our energy is Solar Energy Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Almost all energy is Solar Energy

The Sun sends us solar energy

The trees capture the energy through photosynthesis

and convert it into CARBON

359 million years agoThe Carboniferous (Solar) Era

When ancient forests died,

they stored the carbon

When we burn the

COALit releases theancient carbon

and causes

GLOBAL WARMING

Ancient Solar Energy Solar Coal

Bye-bye, West VirginiaHello, Global Warming

The Sun also sends solar energyinto the ocean

It is captured by ocean plankton,

who store it as CARBON

When they die,the ancient carbon

becomes

OIL and GAS

Most of our energy comes from:

COAL, OIL and GASAncient solar energy = ancient carbon

Ancient Marine Plankton Solar Oil & Gas

Hello, Global Warming

Oil is also a cause of war and conflict

They are all FOSSIL FUELSThey all cause Global Warming

The cars we drive all cause global warming

12.5 million tonnes of coal10 million tonnes of oil

7.5 billion cubic meters of natural gas

Every day, we burnthis ancient carbon energy

This gives us lots of ……

POWER!

85% of all this energy comes from fossil fuelsGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Earth has a very thin atmosphere which traps and holds the sun’s heat,using CO2, methane, & water vapour.

As we burn the fossil fuels…

When we burn fossil fuels…

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Carbon dioxide traps

Carbon dioxide,like the other greenhouse

gases, traps

HEATin the troposphere

The carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is rising

After 10,000 years of relative stability at 280 ppm, this is how dramatically

CO2 is rising in the atmosphere.

Heat warms the air and the oceans

Glaciers are melting

The Arctic sea ice is melting

Greenland is melting

Around parts of Greenland, ocean surface temperatures rose 1.8°-3.6°F between 1990-2011.

The last time the world was 3C warmer, the sea level was 25 metres higher

The last time the world was 3°C warmer, during the Pliocene,

the sea level was up to

25 metres higher.

We are currently on track for 4°C, 5°C or 6°C warmer

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

If all Earth’s polar ice melted 70 metres sea-level rise

92 metres

70 metres

This is impacting all marine life that uses calcium carbonate to build its shells

The ocean is absorbing 26% of the CO2, making it more acidic.

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

The View from Australia

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be

“disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.”

2°C of warming, Hansen’s team says, will have consequences that will be

“disastrous,” and which will “cause major dislocations for civilization.”

Which of us is going to raise a hand and say, “Yes, it’s worth it”?

Seoul, July 2011

IPCC 2007

www.globalwarmingart.com

+ 2˚C rise

Climate Denial

is the Age of Fossil Fuels

10,000 years past

10,000 years future

The Sun is rapidly settingon the Age of Fossil Fuels.

Past Future Age ofFossil Fuels

We are HERE

The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

ScienceEngineering

Enlightenment

Two billion yearsSolar Energy

Inertia via YouTube

Comparison of Vegetation Zones Average vs Warmer (21st Century) Climate

Kyoto, December 23rd 2006

Mount Fuji in Spring

Mt. Fuji - no snow

All of Japan’s nuclear plants are at sea level

Florida 17 feet (5-6 metres) sea level rise

Hurricane Katrina, August 2005

New Orleans, August 2005

Torrential downpoursand floods

At the current predicted temperature rise,

33%of the Earth will be affected

by extreme drought by 2100

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (UK), 2006

Number of days over 100°F / 38°C

60 days a year

120+ days a year

At the current predicted temperature rise,

Up to 20%of the world’s economy could be lost

That’s like the Great Depression

and both World Wars combined

Wake up! Call the media! Get on TV!

Climate change is destroying our world!

There’s also a second problem The Global Oil SupplyGuy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Do you sometimes feel that it’s all getting

out of control?

So what shall we do?

Do you think it ispossible to stop

burning fossil fuels?

化石燃料

YES NO ?

燃やす

JAPAN’SENERGY PROBLEM

エネルギー問題

Coal 21%

Oil 46%

Gas 15%

Nuclear 15%

= 1,000 Terawatt hours

a year

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

97% of all Japan’senergy

is imported

Uranium 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

USA 75%France 11%Britain 10%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Uranium Nuclear 15%

Coal 21%

Natural Gas 15%

Oil 46%

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath

www.earthfuture.com/files/japangreenpath/green_path_japanese.pdf

How serious 切実

is Japan’s Energy Problem?

1. Very serious2. I don’t know3. Not serious

JAPAN’S ENERGY

SOLUTIONS解答

We need…

A 100% Shift to Renewable

Energy

Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

We need…

A Green Economy

Harmony with Nature

True Sustainability

How much energy does Japan need?

1,000 terawatt hours a year

千テラワット時間今年

Where will the green electricity come from?

Efficient Appliances

LED lights only use

1 to 5 watts

How much energy can Japan SAVE?

200 to 500 terawatt hours a year

More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

Solar energy travels at the speed of light 1,000 million kilometres an hour

Sun to Earth in 8 minutes 19 seconds

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Rolf Disch Solar Architecture

Solar Power

Ota Solar City, Japan

Solar-powered homesYoshikawa, near Tokyo

Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany

Kurilpa Bridge, Australia

Blackfriars Bridge, London, UK

Solar railwayParis to Amsterdam

16,000 panels3.4 kilometres

3,300 MWh a year

Dow’s Solar Shingles

Thin film solar

Thin film solar production

Thin film solar

Thin Film: average module efficiencies 13.9% US $0.49 per watt (First Solar)

Conventional multi-crystalline PV: $0.43 per wattaverage conversion efficiency 15% - 19%

The Falling Price of Solar PV

Price of Solar Cells1977: $761981: $241991: $92001: $62011: $1.252013: $0.74

Solar Economics in BC, 20204 kW PV system

15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increaseCash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 5% tax $6,720

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600Profit +$19,000

Solar Economics in Japan, 20204 kW PV system

35 cents kwh, 0% per year increaseCash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 0% tax $6,400

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $38,50025 year profit +$32,000

Price of Installed Solar Power

Germany: $2.50 a wattUS & Canada: $4 a wattJapan: $4 a watt

The SolarTsunami

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW will lose up to $1,000 a year

Victoria: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Vancouver: Solar Rooftop Potential Everywhere

Every commercial roof could look like this, and earn $10,000 a year

How much SOLAR energy could Japan produce?

Kagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Concentrating Solar Thermal Energy

Solar Millennium AG

The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto Earth’s deserts

than humans use.

Odeillo solar furnace, France. Built 197010,000 mirrors, 3000°C

Solana, Arizona

280 MW Solar Thermal + 6 hours storage

254 sq km Global electricity use

110 sq kmEuropean Union

www.desertec.org

High-voltage DC can transmit electricity up to 3000 km. 90% of the world’s people live within 3000 km

of the world’s deserts and arid regions

Solar One, Nevada, 64 MW

Earth’s total known fossil energy reservesare equivalent to 47 days of solar energy

reaching the Earth’s deserts

How much SOLAR THERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Unknown

Geothermal Energy

Geothermal Energy: 13% growth pa2-12 cents kWh39 countries could get 100% power = 17% of the world’s people

Geothermal powerNesjavellir Geothermal Plant, Iceland

How much GEOTHERMAL energy could Japan produce?

Hatchobaru Geothermal Power Plant, Kokonoe, Oita

Kappel Wind Farm, Lolland, Denmark

Wind Energy

Kamisu Wind Farm, Ibaraki, Japan

Siemens AG

Wind Power in Japan

How much WIND energy could Japan produce?

570 to 5,000 terawatt hours a year

How much HYDRO energy could Japan produce?

79 - 140 terawatt hours a year

How much TIDAL energy could Japan produce?

20-70 terawatt hours a year

South Korea’s 1 MW Jindo Uldolmok tidal power plant

The Cost is Falling

1990 2013 2020Wind 30 8-10 8 cents kWh

Solar 200 30 15 cents kWh

THE RESULT

Japan needs 1,000 TWh a year

Low HighEfficiency 200 500Solar 72 300Geothermal 30 500

Wind 570 5000Hydro 79 140Tidal 20 70

TOTAL 971 6510

Do you think it is

possible for Japan stopburning fossil fuel

化石燃料 for electricity?

YES NO ?

TRANSPORTATION輸送

SOLUTIONS解答Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour

= 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

Copenhagen36% of all work trips by bike.

Vancouver, Howe Street

Electric Bicycle

Moto Electra World Record Across US in 3 Days

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Electric Motorbike

Solar electric bicycles in Tokyo

Electric train, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

Public Transit

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

Electric bus, running on green electricity = no climate impact

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Japan’s Future Electric Bus

Chevy Volt1,400 km on one tank of gas

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV160 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV148 km range

Tesla Roadster 393 km range

The KIA Pop: yet to be released

STELLA

Made by Dutch students, Eindhoven UniversityFamily size, 4-seater

Roadworthy, legal in HollandWeight: 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

Range: 400 km no sunshine, 600 km full sunshineSolar PV cost $4,000

10 months a year it produces more energy than it usesExcess power back into the grid

Electric cars, running on green electricity

= no climate impact

1.5 kW of solar PV = 1,500 kWh a year

Electric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $7,500

3.5% 25 year mortgage on $7.5k = $37/month

Gas @ $1.30 litre = $80/month

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

Mercedes Biome – made from bioplasticGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Solar Sailor www.solarsailor.com

9 MW of solar panelsRetractable sails between each cargo bay

Self-unloading cargo baysSuperconducting power link

Modular LNG hydrogen fuel cellsSleek, low wind resistance design

Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com Telemeetings = no climate impact

Do you think it is

possible for Japan to have

transportationwithout oil?

YES NO ?

BUILDINGSOLUTIONS

We can live and work in green buildings

What is your vision of a future green world?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Is this your dream home of the future?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

Or this?Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This…

Or this?

This …

Or this?

Heating 加熱 without Fossil Fuels

Solar Heat + StorageAustria

Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating

Solar Heating from the Air

Ground Source Heat2 million installations in 30 countries

$20,000 to $30,000

Water Source Heat

Ice-Source Heat

Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

Solar Heat

Solar hot wateron a restaurant in

Sweden

Photo by Hamilton Hazlehurst/Vulcan

www.solarbc.caA project of the BCSEA

Lindau Hospital, Germany

Rizhao, China

99% of city centre households use solar hot water.60,000 greenhouses, all solar powered.

Whole city plans to become carbon neutral.

Rizhao, ChinaPopulation 3 million

Solar Wall Heating

Welsh Development Agency Technology Center, St. Asaph, Wales

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta

Year-Round Solar Heating

Energy Centre

Community solar heat panels

Solar hot waterpanels

800 solar hot water panels on the garages90% of residential space heating (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of GHGs per home per year.

No groundwater intrusion, so the heat accumulates over the summer.

SOLAR THERMAL STORAGE

Molten Salt: 7.5 hours after dark

Slab and Earth Heat Storage

Saturated sand

• Heat storage in an underground aquifer

100% solar heated house, Emmental, Switzerlandwww.jenni.ch

Austria

Collective solar thermal system on a residential building, Germanywww.wagner-solar.com

Pearl River Tower

Guangzhou, China

Bahrain World Trade Centre

Virgo Road, Oakland Hills, San FranciscoRobert Nebolon architect

Toyko, Japan

8,000 sq ft zero carbon home designed for Manchester United soccer player Gary Neville

ACROS Fukuoka building in Fukuoka, Japan. 35,000 plants, 76 species

Ogimachi – Shirakawa Farm Village

Tono Furusato Restored Farm Village

Madrid, Spain

Gangnam district, Seoul

ACROS Fukuoka buildingFukuoka, Japan

Do you think it ispossible to heat

Japan’s buildingswithout fossil fuels?

YES NO ?

OUR PAST AND

OUR FUTUREGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

We have been developing intelligencefor millions of years

Our technology is the expression of our

cumulative 累積のshared シェアードintelligence 知性

Where are we going?

We have made our full evolutionary

journeyover 13.8 billion years

We have made our recent

evolutionary journey over ten million years

There will be

a billion years

before the Sun runs out of fueland begins to die

A billion years10億年

We are here

過去Future

将来

Firewood1.5 million years

CumulativeIntelligence

The Carbon Years…

The Carbon Years could be the launch-ramp…

Firewood1.5 million years

Fossil Fuels200 years

The Carbon Years could bethe launch-ramp for the solar years

Firewood Solar1.5 million years

Fossil Solar200 years

True Solar1 billion years

THE CLIMATE EMERGENCYIS VERY REAL

What is stopping us from making faster progress?

1. Laziness 休怠 and apathy 無関心2. Political corruption 政治腐敗3. Ignorance 不知 4. Confusion 錯乱 and no leadership 指導

FINALTHOUGHTS

A Thousand PossibilitiesGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

What will you do with your life?

We Day, Canada www.weday.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

www.metowe.comGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

By Nattanicha Kongsathitporn, age 14, Thailand

We need to roll up the past.

Guy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com By Iskren Rumenov Petrov, age 14, from Bulgaria

We need to sail away from our old, polluting waysand build a green, sustainable world.

This is about you, your children,and your future.

決意

Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion

The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us

Number of atoms in your

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing

Every atom in your body was either made in the Big Bangor in a later Supernova explosion

Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are all conscious

Do you have free will to choose your future?

Or is everything predetermined?

You have free will We can make a difference

It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com

This is about us, our planet,and our future.

There are 7 billion of us humans…

Can we self-organize ourselves into one peacefulwhole,

living in harmony with Nature?

Our Home

the future of our world,

what do you feel?

Excitement

Uncertainty

Fall2014

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

the future of japan

guy dauncey dawn sea

new future

future of japan

personal future

bird island

vancouver island university

ho chi minh city

energy home

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