the emergence of web3d
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The Emergence Of Web3D
Erica Driver
Principal Analyst
Forrester Research
April 25, 2008
2Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Theme
Interactivity + immersion = engagement, and Web3D will deliver in five to seven
years time.
3Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
4Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
5Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
A simplified explanation of Web3D
Privatenetwork
Avatar
Internet
Serious games
Virtual worlds
Immersive workspaces
Source: Second Life (http://secondlife.com/); Virtual Heroes (http://www.virtualheroes.com/)
6Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Forrester’s definition of Web3D
• System of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments
• People will be able to move among these environments in a seamless, natural way.
• Will deliver an interactive, immersive experience
• People will be represented visually by avatars that can move in space and communicate with others.
• Will integrate with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 tools and technologies as well as business software apps
The next major wave in the Internet’s evolution
7Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
8Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
What’s propelling Web3D forward?
• Relentless focus on innovation
• Rising expectations due to Technology Populism and Social Computing
• A changing workforce that requires a technology refresh
• Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
• Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones
9Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Investor, vendor, and early adopter activity
• $1.5 billion invested in virtual world companies in five quarters from Q4 2006-Q4 2007
• Early adopters: BP, Cisco, IBM, Intel, Michelin
10Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Med students learn interaction skills just as well in virtual environments as in physical ones
Source: Parvati Dev, W. LeRoy Heinrichs, Laura Kusumuto, and Patricia Youngblood, “Virtual Worlds and Team Training,” Anesthesiology Clinics, Volume 25 , Issue 2
Mean student scores
Pre-test and post-test student scores
11Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
12Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Teach, learn, and practice in a way that feels “real”
Source: Virtual Heroes
Training medical students and professionals
13Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Use new methods to teach complex concepts
Source: Michelin Group enterprise architecture island in Second Life
Teaching enterprise architects how to build road maps
14Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Collaborate on information in new ways
8 images24 meters
36 meters 12 images
Source: Gus Rosania, PhD; University of Michigan College of Pharmacy
Analyzing complex data for drug discovery process
15Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Interact with colleagues in virtual workspacesAttending a conference “in-world”
Source: snapshot taken in a Multiverse session during Life 2.0 conference
16Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Build or import and share 3-D designs and models
Source: Flickr, Studio Wikitecture (http://www.flickr.com/photos/studiowikitecture)
Studio Wikitecture: collaborative architecture
17Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Manage projects in bottom-up ways
Source: Flickr, Claudia Linden (http://www.flickr.com/photos/claudialinden/2106802302/)
Studio Wikitecture’s wiki tree
18Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Transform presentations into tours
Source: Palomar West island in Second Life (http://www.pph.org/media.aspx?news=196)
Hospital of the future: Palomar West
19Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Manage complex real-world systems remotely
Source: EOLUS One island in Second Life
Implenia facilities operations center
20Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
21Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Evolution of the multidimensional Web
Immersive
Interactive
Static
Text UI
Basic graphical
UI
Rich, interactive
graphical UI
3-D digital experience
Hybrid virtual/real-
world experience
Pre-Web Internet
World Wide Web
Web 2.0
Web3D
WebXD
Inte
ract
ivit
y
Richness of user experience
22Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Today (2008)
Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
•Dozens of vendors •Few virtual worlds used for work open to the public
•Lack of standards•A few virtual worlds support standard 3-D content creation tools.
•Dearth of easy to use 3-D content creation tools
•Little integration with business software applications
•Serious games in use
•Early-stage experimentation in businesses for team collaboration, meetings, conferences, recruiting
•Ease of content creation•Troublesome interfaces and poor avatar control mechanisms
• Inability to use content in whichever virtual environment you want
•Embedded IP protection for copy, transfer, and modify
•Computers with inadequate graphics cards, processing power
•Corporate IT security policies may restrict access to Web3D until implications are better understood.
23Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
In three to four years (2011–2012)
Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
• 100s or 1,000s of tech vendors selling Web3D solutions or SaaS
•Lots of open source projects focusing on various technical components
•Intensive experimentation
•Examples emerge of enterprisewide rollouts
•Innovative control devices and interfaces available
•Shift in perception of immersive workspaces, serious games, and virtual worlds
•Lack of widely adopted standards resulting in continued lack of interoperability
•New and improved interface components and control metaphors still not common
•Fuzziness about IP rights for objects people create
• Inability to prevent violations of IP rules through technical means
•Security
24Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
In five to seven years (2013–2015)
Technology maturity Adoption Gating factors
•Market has thinned out — just a handful of technology vendors identified as leaders
•Standards widely adopted•People can access multiple 3-D sites, virtual worlds, serious games, and other applications with a single avatar.
•Web3D sites and apps commonplace
• Innovative organizations achieve breakthrough competitive advantage
•Control metaphor enables seamless usage of Web3D as it becomes a vital business tool
• Identity: impersonation, identity theft
•Governance: Who rules and polices a virtual world? How do taxes work in a global virtual world? How about employment law and dispute resolution?
25Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Next-generation interface devices
Hillcrest Labs Freespace “The Loop”
Source: Hillcrest Labs
Logitech MX Air Rechargeable Cordless
Air Mouse
Source: Logitech
Source: Seeing Machines
Seeing Machines faceLAB
26Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Agenda
• What is Web3D?
• Web3D drivers
• We will work very differently in five to seven years.
• How we think it will all play out
• Recommendations
27Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recommendations (1:2)
• Apply Web3D concepts to innovation strategies.
• Experiment with Web3D in areas like training and simulation or collaboration.
• Conduct internal Web3D workshops and seminars.
• Include Web3D in revised Web 2.0 policies.
28Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recommendations (2:2)
• Develop Information Workplace strategies that include Web3D concepts.
• Work with infrastructure and operations to upgrade your hardware and the network.
• Talk now with Security & Risk professionals to understand their concerns.
• Grill the vendors on their interoperability strategy.
• Join industry consortia to network and learn more.
29Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Erica Driver
+1 401.592.0170
edriver@forrester.com
www.forrester.com
Blog: http://blogs.forrester.com/information_management/
Thank you
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