the emergence of trending topics: the dissemination of breaking stories on twitter

The Emergence of Trending Topics: The Dissemination of Breaking Stories on Twitter Assoc. Prof. Axel Bruns / Dr. Theresa Sauter

ARC Centre of Excellence for Creative Industries and Innovation

Queensland University of Technology

Brisbane, Australia

a.bruns / t.sauter @ qut.edu.au

@snurb_dot_info / @lena_sauter

TRENDING TOPICS ON TWITTER

• Twitter as “ambient news” (Hermida, Burns):– Often rapid emergence and dissemination of new information– Formation of ad hoc publics around new events, themes, topics (Bruns & Burgess)– Emerging themes identified as “trending topics” by Twitter, often associated with hashtags– Clearly visible as a result of trending – but what happens in the early stages?– Difficult to retrace trends to their point of origin, due to API access limitations– Need to understand / evaluate trending against context of:

• existing network structures / typical activity patterns (also largely unknown)• coverage across wider media ecology

• How to move forward?– Comprehensive investigation of background networks / activity patterns– Speculative data gathering in advance of possible trending topics

BACKGROUND

• Twitter in Australia:– Comparatively strong take-up: ~2.8m accounts (population 23m)– Demographics: 25-55-year-olds, affluent, educated, urban– Historically strong focus on politics, e.g. #auspol, #ausvotes

• Politics in Australia:– Westminster system: Australian Labor Party vs. Liberal / National Coalition– 2010-13: ALP minority government, supported by 3 Independents + 1 Green– Prime Minister Julia Gillard (ALP), Oposition Leader Tony Abbott (Lib)– Highly controversial, aggressive atmosphere in parliament– Deeply personal attacks on Gillard (as unmarried, atheist woman) in parliament

and media

MISOGYNY DEBATE

• 9. Oct. 2012: Gillard strongly criticises Abbott in ad hoc 15-minute speech

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-09/julia-gillard-attacks-abbott-of-hypocrisy/4303634

• Trending topic on Twitter, 2.5m views on YouTube (by mid-2014)

MEDIA COVERAGE

RESEARCH DESIGN

• Australian Twitter News Index:– Continuous ATNIX data gathering since mid-2012– All tweets containing links to leading 30+ Australian news sites– Focus here on Australian Broadcasting Corporation post of the

15-minute video– I.e.: YouTube and other distribution paths not included

• Analysis:– Identification and temporal / network analysis of tweets identified in

ATNIX dataset– Two phases: 0-5 hours / 5-75 hours after first tweet

THE FIRST FIVE HOURS (0-18,000s)

• Network visualisation:– Every node represents one account

• Node size: number of retweets received across entire 75h timeframe

• Node colour: cluster membership (according to Gephi algorithm)

– Each edge represents one or more retweets– Each step represents 15 minutes

– Video: http://youtu.be/4V81s5sAiqM

ANALYSIS OF MAIN ACTORS (0-5h)

• Geography: – 29 Australians, 1 New Zealander, 1

British

• Background:– 10 journalists– 8 feminists– 5 private accounts– 4 activists– 3 comedians– 1 cartoonist

• Gradual transition from journalists to feminists

• Final addition: commentator for Guardian (UK)

NEXT 70 HOURS (18,000-270,000s)

• Network visualisation:– As previous– Each step represents one hour

– Video: http://youtu.be/-IhAdHOIa08

ANALYSIS OF MAIN ACTORS (5-75h)

• Geography: – 7 British, 7 Australians, 2 US accounts,

1 Canadian

• Background:– 6 feminists– 4 journalists– 3 musicians– 2 comedians– 1 private account– 1 politician

• Feminists, (Australian) celebrities, (British) journalists

DYNAMICS OF THE RETWEET CHAIN

• From parliamentary procedure to media event:– First attention from journalists and “political junkies”– Commentators and comedians broaden the base– Feminists become active

• From Australia to the world:– First tweets from UK delayed by timezone differences– Understandable interest:

• Historical connections, Australian expat community in UK• Similar political systems, interlinkages between media organisations• Guardian Australia as Australian offshoot of Guardian (UK)

THE AUSTRALIAN TWITTERSPHERE

Follower/followee network:~120,000 Australian Twitter users(of ~950,000 known accounts by early 2012) colour = outdegree, size = indegree

THEMATIC CLUSTERS

PerthMarketing / PR

DesignWeb

Creative

FarmingAgriculture

HardlineConservatives

ConservativesJournalists

ALPProgressives

Greens

News

OpinionNews

NGOsSocial Policy

ITTech

Social MediaTechPR

Advertising

Real EstateProperty

JobsHR

Business

BusinessProperty

Parenting

Mums CraftArts

FoodWine

Beer

Adelaide

SocialICTs

CreativeDesign

FashionBeauty

UtilitiesServices

Net Culture

BooksLiteraturePublishing

Film

TheatreArts

RadioTV Music

DanceHip Hop

Triple J

TalkbackBreakfast TVCelebritiesCycling

Union

NRL

Football

CricketAFL

SwimmingV8s

Evangelicals

Teachinge-Learning

Schools

ChristiansHillsong

Teens

Jonas Bros.Beliebers

Australian Bands

@KRuddMP

@JuliaGillard

7.5 mins. elapsed

@abcnews

15 mins. elapsed

30 mins. elapsed

Journalists

1 hour elapsed

Feminists

1 ½ hours elapsed

2 hours elapsed

2 ½ hours elapsed

3 hours elapsed

3 ½ hours elapsed

4 hours elapsed

4 ½ hours elapsed

5 hours elapsed

complete network

RESULTS

• Dissemination dynamics:– Long tail early on, fat head towards the end:

• starts with many individual shares by a diverse range of participants, • ends mainly with retweets of best-known / most influential accounts

• Event dynamics:– From breaking news to longer-term media / political issue– From political spectacle to feminist rallying cry

• Network dynamics:– Flat at first, then increasingly structured– Single acocunts (e.g. @dawnhfoster) as bridging points to new networks– Influencers most persistently retweeted

FUTURE AIMS

• Further research:– Continued improvement of analytical methods

• Other approaches to analysing / visualising retweet chains?

– Repeat for other cases• How to gather data (beyond ATNIX)?

– Comparisons across other themes, and national contexts• Different forms of breaking news, different Twitterspheres

– Importance of background data • E.g. follower networks, Twitter careers of participating accounts

– Impact of coverage in other media?• Fewer retweets for themes already prominent in other media?

http://mappingonlinepublics.net/@snurb_dot_info

@lena_sauter

@jeanburgess

@dpwoodford

@timhighfield

http://socialmedia.qut.edu.au/