the economic impact of immigrants in minnesota katherine fennelly anne huart humphrey institute of...
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The Economic Impact of Immigrants in Minnesota
Katherine FennellyAnne HuartHumphrey Institute of Public AffairsUniversity of Minnesota
Enormous diversity: immigrants, refugees, low and high-skilled workers and their families
Aging citizens + Need for young work force
+ insufficient visas for workers =
large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US
Aging citizens
The Graying of the U.S. Population
Source: Fed. Interagency Forum on Aging, 2000
01020304050607080
millions
Projected Increase in U.S. Population Over Age 65
Projected Changes in US Labor Force 1998-2008: Three Million Fewer Workers Ages 25-44
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Workers 25-44 Workers 45+
Source: Dohm, 2000
Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
18-2465+
Source: Stinson& Gillaspy, 12/05
Aging in Minnesota
By 2020 Minnesota will have more retirees than school children
Source: Atkins et al. 2020 Caucus Strib 2/26/06
Need for young work force
demand for both high skilled and low skilled workers
Nearly 6 million new jobs will be created between 2004 and 2014 that require only short-term on-the-job training*
Percent of projected openings 2000-2010 by training required
21%
9%
6%
7%
15%
42%
BA+Assoc/ Voc DegreeRelated Work ExperLong-term OJTModerate-term OJTShort-term OJT
* BLS; pie chart source: Paral, 2006 using BLS Data
Few Natives Available for Low-Skilled Jobs
Non-High School Graduates in 2005:
Native-born: 12 %
Foreign-born: 33 %Foreign-born Hispanics: 54 %
Source: US Census Bureau, “EducationalAttainment in the US: 2005”, 9/06
Industries Relying on Unauthorized Immigrant Workers
21% of private household workers24% of farm workers17% of cleaning crews12% of food preparation workers12% of construction workers10% of leisure & hospitality employees
Overall: 5% of US Civilian Workforce
Source: Pew Hispanic Center Fact Sheet “The Labor Force Status of Short-Term Unauthorized Workers, 2005” , April 13, 2006
Growth in Minnesota Labor Force Attributable to Latinos 1990 and 2000*
Source: Census, U.S. Bureau of the. 1990 Census and 2000 Census Sf3 MNPlanning Data Net, 2002 [cited 2/28/03 2003]. McMurray, Martha. "Minnesota Labor Force Trends 1990-2000." Minnesota Planning OSD-02-101, no. December, 2002
24%
Selected Non-Metro Minnesota Cities with the Largest Hispanic Populations: School Enrollments With and Without Hispanic Students, 1999–2008
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
99-'00 00-'01 01-'02 02-'03 03-'04 04-'05 05-'06 06-'07 07-'08 08-'09
Academic School Year
With HispanicsWithout Hispanics
*School Districts Included: Crookston, Moorhead, St. Cloud, Willmar, Marshall, Glencoe Silver Lake, Mankato, Northfield, Faribault, St. James, Worthington, Owatonna, Rochester, Albert Lea, Austin
Latino Children are Keeping Rural Schools from Closing or Consolidating
Open letter from 500 economists*, June, 2006
“Immigration is a net economic gain for America and its citizens, and the greatest anti-poverty program ever devised”
*including 5 Nobel Laureates
President’s Council of Economic Advisors, June, 2007
“On average, US natives benefit from immigration. Immigrants tend to complement (not substitute for) natives, raising natives’ productivity and income.”
Inequitable distribution of fiscal benefits
* In the short-term rapid demographic changes cause some stresses
* Funds that accrue at the federal and state levels and to large employers of immigrants don’t ‘trickle down’ to localities with high proportions of immigrants
How much do immigrants cost?
High costinvestment
Low cost investment
Studies often over-state the cost of immigration by measuring costs before adults reach working age
Most immigrants pay the same taxes as US-born residents
Income taxesProperty taxesSales taxesBusiness taxesProperty taxesFewer tax breaks
Insufficient Visas
Restrictions Under NAFTA for Meeting the Demand for Workers:
on the one hand, the free flow of capital, goods, and services has been expanded
on the other hand, the flow of labor has been the subject of massive enforcement efforts and legal restrictions
Source: US-Mexico Migration Panel, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2001
Percentage of Employment-Based Visas That Were Issued for Low Skilled Jobs: 2002*
99%
<1%
Source: Jachimowicz, 2004Workers in less-skilled jobs received only 16 percent of all temporary employment and training visas awarded in 2002. (Paral, 2005)
Need to lift the country cap of 26,300 visas
Value of goods exported from the US to Mexico in 2006:
$866,000,000,000
Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division,
Aging citizens + Need for young work force
+ insufficient visas for workers =
large undocumented population and underclass who are major economic contributors to the state & the US
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