the demographic transition...oct 05, 2015  · demographic transition in england england was one of...

The Demographic

Transition:

A Contemporary Look at a

Classic Model

World Population Growth (1950–2000)

Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century.

The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since,

but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

The Demographic

Transition

Focuses on economic reasons for growth. Does

not consider religion, culture, political actions,

or migration.

Stages1. High birth and high (but fluctuating) death

rates.

• Population grows slowly

2. High birth rates and low mortality

• Rapid population growth

• Life expectancies increase

3. Birth rates decline due to family planning

• Urbanization/Industrialization

4. Very low and nearly equal birth and death rates.

• Aging population; ZPG

Excludes Mentifacts Sociofacts

Demographic Transition in England

England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population

growth in the mid-18th century, when it entered stage 2 of the DTM.

Fluctuating population

growth- famines, disease, and low

food supply

Better agricultural practices, thus more food.

Few plagues and famines Industrialization

5.5 avg children/ womanTo 2.4

Pop. Growth is

stable

A. U.S. Population

Growth1. U.S. has moved

slightly below ZPG since 2000

2. In U.S.: 75% of people live in cities…parents have smaller families

3. Immigration is the cause of U.S. population increase

Europe as a source and destinationfor migrants

B. Russian Population Growth

1. Many E. European countries have negative natural increase rates…a legacy of Communist rule

2. Will Russia display higher birth rates?

Demographic Transition

C. Countries in Different Stages of

DTM:

1. NO country today in Stage 1

2. Stage 2: Undeveloped poorer countries

3. Stage 3: Developing countries (India, China)

4. Stage 4: Developed countries w/ ZPG (E.U.)

5. Stage 5: Population “Implosion” (Japan)

“Dependency ratio”: amount of individuals not

in the labor force (the dependents; elderly & young)

& those in the labor force

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic

transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth.

Its population history reflects the impacts of famines & out-migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile

Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the

1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark

Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since

the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population

pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Demographic Transition in

Sweden & Mexico

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Sweden

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Mexico

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Births/Deaths per 1,000

1750

D. DTM & World Pop Growth

Global pop. doubled twice during 2nd half of 20th-cen.

• the sudden drop in the death rate is worldwide

• The sudden drop in the birth rate—yet to be achieved in many countries

The 19th-cen. decline in the CDR in Europe & N. America occurred with the Industrial Revolution

The sudden drop in CDR in Africa, Asia, & Latin America: accomplished by “Medical Revolution”

E. Is the DTM Still Useful?

How well does the classic model work for developing

countries?

Do developing countries need to share the

experiences of Europe & the U.S.?

Is industrialization a prerequisite or a consequence of

demographic transition?

Preindustrial Transitional Industrial