the challenges of the international climate negotiations and the belgian eu presidency

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Vleva26 October 2009

Sebastian Oberthür

The Challenges of the International Climate

Negotiations and the Belgian EU Presidency

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Content

1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

2. Structure of a post-2012 agreement

3. Contents of a post-2012 agreement

4. Status and prospects of negotiations

5. Implications for the Belgian EU Presidency

Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

1. UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol

• 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

• 1997 Kyoto Protocol (industrialised countries emission targets)

• 2001/2005 Marrakesh Accords: the Kyoto Protocol’s rule book (Kyoto market mechanisms, reporting and review, sinks/forests, compliance)

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

2. Structure of post-2012 agreement

• Protocol track: negotiations on a second commitment period under the KP (since 2005)

• Convention track: negotiations on long-term cooperative action on climate change under UNFCCC (Bali Action Plan, 2007)

⇒Challenges:• 1 Protocol, 2 Protocols, else?

• What happens to the KP and the Marrakesh Accords?

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (1)

EU objectives

• Limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels (1996)

• Global GHG emissions need to peak by 2020 and decrease by at least 50% from 1990 level by 2050

• GHG emissions of developed countries to be reduced by 25-40% by 2020 and 80-95% by 2050 (baseline 1990)

• GHG emissions of more advanced developing countries to be reduced by 15-30% below Business-As-Usual by 2020

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (2)

• Overarching: What level of ambition? How much differentiation between developed and developing countries?

• Developed countries

• Kyoto-type emission targets? Comparability?

• Kyoto-type reporting and review system?

• Treatment of sinks?

• Kyoto-type compliance system?

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (3)

• Developing countries

• “Nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs)”

• What and how (nature, governance, link to financing)?

• Reporting and review

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (4)

• Financing

• How much and from which sources (public, private/markets, new/innovative mechanisms)?

• How much for what (mitigation, adaptation, technology transfer, forests)?

• Governance: which institutions and procedures, which new funds (if any), who decides?

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (5)

• Adaptation

• Technology development and transfer

• Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD)

• Emissions from international transport

• Reform of existing and establishment of new market mechanisms (sectoral mechanisms)

• Capacity building, institutions/procedures, etc.

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

3. Contents of post-2012 agreement (6)

• Challenges:

• How to achieve agreement on broad concepts and principled matters?

• How to elaborate and agree on more detailed implementing rules?

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

4. Status/prospects of negotiations

• KP track: detailed proposals, but no agreement – structure of future agreement?

• Convention track:

• a lot of negotiating text(s)

• Moving towards definition of broad political concepts (leaving detailed legal texts and implementing rules to be elaborated later)

• Unclear link with/role of KP and Marrakesh Accords

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

4. Status/prospects of negotiations (2)

⇒A Copenhagen Agreement is still possible, although by no means certain.

⇒In any event, Copenhagen will require a substantial follow-up (timeline uncertain).

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

5. Belgian Presidency (1)

The role of the EU Presidency

• EU spokesperson in international climate negotiations (COP, CMP, subsidiary bodies)

• Main EU representative in external climate policy in general (heading the EU Troika)

• Chairing of responsible Council Working Party: leading and brokering of internal agreement (Council Conclusions and position papers)

• Chairing of various Council expert groups under the Working Party

International climate negotiations and Belgian EU Presidency

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

5. Belgian Presidency (2)

Scenarios for 2010

• In any event, international climate policy and negotiations will remain at the top of the international agenda.

• Intensity not completely clear yet, but it is likely to be more than is scheduled so far.

• Scope of internal discussions dependent on international progress: moving to 30%? Financing? Forests? …?

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Sebastian Oberthür, 26 October 2009

5. Belgian Presidency (3)

• Managing EU external climate policy will constitute a major task of the Belgian EU Presidency in 2010.

• Successful execution of this task will require advancing preparations and investing the necessary resources NOW:

• Exact needs assessment and strategy for dealing with different scenarios

• Pooling/activation/coordination of resources within Belgium: there needs to be a team that “runs the show”

• Coordination with the European Commission and other Member States