the 2006 marcus wallenberg prize symposium -...

Marc HanewinkelFreiburg, GermanyMarc HanewinkelFreiburg, GermanyBaden-Württemberg Forest Research InstituteBaden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management

Marc Hanewinkel

Forest Research Institute of Baden-Württemberg

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management

1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath

• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry

4. What comes next ?

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Introduction

26.12.1999 ‘Lothar‘

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Introduction

Recent large storm disturbances in Europe

1990 – „Vivien/Wiebke“ >100 million m3

1999 – „Lothar/Martin“ >180 million m3

2005 – „Gudrun/Sweden“ > 75 million m3

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

• Vulnerability of different tree species

• Influence of tree height and height / diameter ratio (h/d)

• Influence of exposure (TOPEX)

• Influence of geographic position

• Goal: Regionalization – mapping of potential risk

• Database: National Forest Inventory in Germany (2002)

Lessons learnt – a risk model

Lessons learnt

4

B

DA

C

150 m

(M.Schmidt, J.Bayer, G.Kändler)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt

Comparing tree height and species

SpruceFirBeech

P (S

torm

dam

age)

Tree height (m)

Spruce Fir Beech

Spruce Fir Beech

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################################

3450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000-400

-200

0

R echtswert

-1*T

opex

-Inde

x

3 450000 3455000 3460000 3465000 3470000200

400

600

800

R echtswert

Seeh

öhe

ü. N

N [m

]Topex: topographic

exposure The Windthrow Research Group, University of British ColumbiaH

eigh

t a.s

.l

Easting

Easting

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt

• Influence of tree height and geographic position (large-scaleairflow - conditions)

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

#

S

U

MA

HD

KA

FR

RV0 10 20 30 40 50

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Baumhöhe [m]

P (S

turm

scha

den)

P (S

torm

dam

age)

Tree height

0

010 20

3040

5060

70

80

90

100

110

120130

140150

160170180

190200210

220230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300310

320330

340 350

N

S

OW

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt

Spatial autocorrelation

3400000 3450000 3500000 3550000 3600000

5300

000

5400

000

5500

000

Rechtswert

Hoc

hwer

t

SturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeitThin Plate Regression Spline

Stuttgart

Ulm

Karlsruhe

Freiburg

Ravensburg

Bad Mergentheim

Oberkirch

Probability of storm damage

g(πi) = Xi β + f (north; easti) + Zib + εi

2-dimensional function to assess spatial influence

Nor

thin

g

Easting

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt

Spatial autocorrelation

RWHW

P (S

turmschaden)

SturmschadenswahrscheinlichkeitThin Plate Regression Spline

g(πi) = Xi β + f (north; easti) + Zib + εi

2-dimensional function to assess spatial influence

EastingNorthing

Probability of storm damage

Probability of storm dam

age

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt Regionalization – map of potential risk

Northern Black Forest

0

1

.

.

...

6

-.....

.3456

5

2

0 00 -0 -0 -0 -0 -0. -

10 20 30 40.0

7

P (storm damage):

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and original meteorological conditions

" 0,000106 - 0,050000

" 0,050001 - 0,100000

" 0,100001 - 0,150000

" 0,150001 - 0,200000

" 0,200001 - 0,250000

" 0,250001 - 0,300000

" 0,300001 - 0,350000

" 0,350001 - 0,400000

" 0,400001 - 0,450000

" 0,450001 - 0,500000

" 0,500001 - 0,550000

" 0,550001 - 0,600000

Risk-classes

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

• Regionalization of risk based on digital terrain model (DTM) and inventory data and meteorological conditions type: centre of „Lothar“ - damage

" 0,000106 - 0,050000

" 0,050001 - 0,100000

" 0,100001 - 0,150000

" 0,150001 - 0,200000

" 0,200001 - 0,250000

" 0,250001 - 0,300000

" 0,300001 - 0,350000

" 0,350001 - 0,400000

" 0,400001 - 0,450000

" 0,450001 - 0,500000

" 0,500001 - 0,550000

" 0,550001 - 0,600000

Risk classes

Schmidt et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Lessons learnt

Forest management implications

• Use large disturbances to build risk models (learn lessons !)

• Use topex (northing/easting) to map and regionalize the risk (exposure, winddirection)

• Reduce height ! Decrease h/d (e.g. reach diameters earlier !)

• Choose adequate species

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management

1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath

• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry

4. What comes next ?

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Insect calamities

• Bark beetle attacks in the follow-up of „Lothar“

BiberachStaat

Ulm

Wangen

B ü h l

Horb

Vellberg

Leutkirch

Ehingen

Künzelsau

Vaihingen

L a h r

Pfullendorf

Z e l l

Eppingen

Schöntal

Engen

Hei lbronnBretten

Crailsheim

Schrozberg

Sulz

Radolfzell

Aalen

Backnang

Mengen

Ellwangen

Sinsheim

Langenau

Überlingen

Meßkirch

Göppingen

Weinheim

BadWaldsee

Buchen

Bopfingen

Bruchsal

O b e r k i r c h

Tettnang

Adelsheim

Stuttgart

Blaustein

Karlsruhe

Staufen

Ochsenhausen

Lörrach

Stockach

Albstadt

Wertheim

Walldürn

Rastatt

Ravensburg

Rottweil

Breisach

KirchheimNürtingen

Nagold

BalingenRiedlingen

Triberg

Münsingen

Herrenberg

Gaildor f

Jestetten

Giengen

Steinheim

Rottenburg

Neuenstadt

Wolfach

Kenzingen

Hechingen

O f f e n b u r g

Leonberg

Geislingen

Mössingen

Mosbach

Gundelsheim

Reutlingen

Donaueschingen

E l z a c h

K e h l i n R h e i n a u

Oberndorf

Schorndorf

Biberach-Staat

Heidenheim

Schramberg

Lichtenstein

Bad Urach

H a u s a c h

Calw

Blaubeuren

Schwetzingen

Wehingen

Kandern

Welzheim

Stühlingen

Zwiefalten

KarlsbadNeuenbürg

Bonndorf

Lorch

Tuttlingen

Ette n h e i m

T i tisee-Neustadt

BadSchussenried

Esslingen

Spaichingen

Tauberbischofsheim

Bad Mergentheim

S t . M ä r g e n Immendingen

Rosenfeld

Furtwangen

Heidelberg

Mühlacker

Scho p f h e i m B a d S ä c k i n g e n

Pforzheim

Maulbronn

Emm e n d i n g e n

Rosenberg

Murrhardt

W a l d k i r c h

T o d t m o o s

Eberbach

Gschwend

Schwäbisch Gmünd

Alpirsbach

K i r c h z a r t e n

S t . B l a s i e n

Phil ippsburg

Lauda-Königshofen

Schwäbisch Hall

Abtsgmünd

S c h l u chsee

Schwarzach

Müllheim/Baden

Löwenstein

Altensteig

Gammertingen

W a l d shut-Tiengen

Burladingen

Freudenstadt

Freiburg-S t a d t

Rotenfels

Gernsbach

Neckargmünd

T o d t n a u

Hardt

Baiersbronn

Weil imSchönbuch

Bad Liebenzell

G e n g e n b a c h

OberkochenB aden-BadenStadt

Villingen-SchwenningenStadt

S c h ö n a u S c h w a r z w a l d

Pfalz-grafenweiler

TübingenBebenhausen

BadWildbad

Enzklösterle

Biberach-Stadt

B a d Peterstal- G riesbach

Forbach

Klosterreichenbach

BadHerrenalb

Villingen-Schwenningen

Staat

BadRippoldsau-Schapbach

Murgschifferschaft in Forbach

Hospitalwald Dinkelsbühl

Käferh o l z f m 0 - 5 0 0 5 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 2 5 0 1 - 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 - 7 5 0 0 7 5 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 1 1 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 ü b e r 3 0 0 0 0

K ä f e r b e f a l l

n a c h

F o r s t b e z i r k e n

G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g

ZSL FV Sz

S t a n d 3 1 . 0 1 . 2 0 0 2

Bark beetles after „Lothar“2002

Storm damage due to „Lothar“

Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Insect calamities

BiberachStaat

Ulm

Wangen

B ü hl

Horb

Vellberg

Leutkirch

Ehingen

Künzelsau

Vaihingen

L a h r

Pfullendorf

Z ell

Eppingen

Schöntal

Engen

HeilbronnBretten

Crailsheim

Schrozberg

Sulz

Radolfzell

Aalen

Backnang

Mengen

Ellwangen

Sinsheim

Langenau

Überlingen

Meßkirch

Göppingen

Weinheim

Bad Waldsee

Buchen

Bopfingen

Bruchsal

O berkirch

Tettnang

Adelsheim

Stuttgart

Blaustein

Karlsruhe

S t a u f e n

Ochsenhausen

Lörrach

Stockach

Albstadt

Wertheim

Walldürn

Rastatt

Ravensburg

Rottweil

Breisach

KirchheimNür tingen

Nagold

BalingenRiedlingen

Triberg

Münsingen

Herrenberg

Gaildorf

Jestetten

Giengen

Steinheim

Rottenburg

Neuenstadt

Wolfach

Kenzi n g e n

Hechingen

O f f e n b u r g

Leonberg

Geislingen

Mössingen

Mosbach

Gundelsheim

Reutlingen

Donaueschingen

E l z ach

K e h l i n R h e i n a u

Oberndorf

Schorndorf

Biberach-Staat

Heidenheim

Schramberg

Lichtenstein

BadUrach

Hausach

Calw

Blaubeuren

Schwetzingen

Wehingen

Kandern

Welzheim

Stühlingen

Zwiefalten

KarlsbadNeuenbürg

Bonndorf

Lorch

Tuttlingen

E t t e n h e i m

Titisee-Neustadt

Bad Schussenried

Esslingen

Spaichingen

Tauberbischofsheim

BadMergentheim

S t . M ä rgen

Immendingen

Rosenfeld

Furtwangen

Heidelberg

Mühlacker

S c h o p f h e i m B a d S ä c k i n g e n

Pforzheim

Maulbronn

E m m e n d i n g e n

Rosenberg

Murrhardt

W a l d k i r c h

T o d t m o o s

Eberbach

Gschwend

Schwäbisch Gmünd

Alpirsbach

K i r c h z a r t e n

S t . B l asien

Philippsburg

Lauda-Königshofen

Schwäbisch Hall

Abtsgmünd

Schluchsee

Schwarzach

Müllheim/Baden

Löwenstein

Altensteig

Gammertingen

Waldshut-Tiengen

Burladingen

Freudenstadt

Fr e i b u r g - S t a d t

Rotenfels

Gernsbach

Neckargmünd

T o d t n a u

Hardt

Baiersbronn

Weil imSchönbuch

Bad Liebenzell

G e n g e n bach

OberkochenBaden-Baden Stadt

Villingen-SchwenningenStadt

S c h ö n a u S c h w a r z w a l d

Pfalz-grafenweiler

TübingenBebenhausen

BadWildbad

Enzklösterle

Biberach-Stadt

Bad Peterstal-Griesbach

Forbach

Klosterreichenbach

BadHerrenalb

Villingen-Schwenningen

Staat

BadRippoldsau-Schapbach

Murgschifferschaft in Forbach

Hospitalwald Dinkelsbühl

Käfer h o l z f m 0 - 5 0 0 5 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 2 5 0 1 - 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 1 - 7 5 0 0 7 5 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 11 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 02 0 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 ü b e r 3 0 0 0 0

K ä f e r b e f a l l n a c h

F o r s t b e z i r k e n

G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g

ZSLFV Sz

S t a n d 3 1 . 1 2 . 2 0 0 4

Bark beetles after „Lothar“2004

Storm damage due to „Lothar“

Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Insect calamities

Storm damage due to „Lothar“

Calw

Biberach

O r t e n a u k r e i s

Ravensburg

Ostalbkreis

Heilbronn

Rastatt

Waldshut

Karlsruhe

Reutlingen

Rottweil

Sigmaringen

Konstanz

Loerrac h

Schwaebisch Hall

Alb-Donau-Kreis

Tuttlingen

Main-Tauber-Kreis

Enzkreis

Freudenstadt

Esslingen

Zollernalbkreis

Boeblingen

Rhein-Neckar-Kreis

Ludwigsburg

Goeppingen Heidenheim

Rems-Murr-Kreis

B r e i s g a u - H o c hschwarzwald

Hohenlohekreis

Tuebingen

Neckar-Odenwald-Kreis

E m m e n d i n g e n

Bodenseekreis

Schwarzwald-Baar-Kreis

Ulm

Stuttgart

Mannheim

Karlsruhe-Stadt

Baden-Baden

Heidelberg

Pforzheim

Freiburg i m B r e i s g a u

Heilbronn-Stadt

Käferholz fm 0 - 200 0 2001 - 5 0 0 0 5001 - 1 0 0 0 0 10001 - 3 0 0 0 0 30001 - 5 0 0 0 0 50001 - 8 0 0 0 0 80001 - 1 0 0 0 0 0 100001 - 1 5 0 0 0 0 über 1 5 0 0 0 0

I n s e k t e n s c h ä d e n N a d e l h o l z e i n s c h l a g

n a c h F o r s t b e z i r k e n

G e s a m t w a l d B a d e n - W ü r t t e m b e r g

S t a n d 3 1 . 1 0 . 2 0 0 5

ZSLFV Sz

Bark beetles after „Lothar“2005

Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Cross-correlation Storm-Insects

The aftermath Insect calamities

• 2nd peaks: 10-11yrs (storm) and 15yrs (snow)

• Cross-correlation Storm/Insects:

• up to 6 years

Hanewinkel et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Carbon sequestration

C-removal due to „Lothar“ 1999• Living biomass (above

ground)

• Total C affected: 8.2 Million t C

• Enrichment in snags (deadwood):1.3 Million t C

Removal due tostorm :

6.9 Million t C

Zell et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath Carbon sequestration

Change in C-pools

• Important pool : – Coarse woody debris– (= large pieces of dead down wood )

• Increase in this pool from – 2,93 t C / ha (average) to– 8,93 t C / ha (storm affected)

Zell et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

The aftermath The timber industry

0

5

10

15

20bis 10

10-20

20-30

30-40

40-50

50-60

60-70 >70

BHD-Stufen [cm mR]

Vorr

at [M

io. m

³ V m

R]

BWI IWW 99BWI II

19871999

2002DBH- classes (cm)

Stan

din g

vol

ume

(mi ll

ion

m3 )

<

Norway spruce (SW-Germany, State Forest )

Kändler (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Forest management implications

• Extent of insect outbreaks after disturbances often underestimated

• Pest management as integrated part of risk management

• Accumulating standing volume might not always be a wise strategy for C-sequestration

• Adapt your risk-management strategy to the needs of the timber industry

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Natural risks and long term forest management

1. Introduction2. Lessons learnt from „Lothar“3. „Lothar“ and the aftermath

• insect calamities• carbon sequestration• timber industry

4. What comes next ?

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

What comes next?

Climate scenario for Climate scenario for SW Germany (KLIWA)SW Germany (KLIWA)

• sum of yearly precipitations + 250 mm• N days with heavy rain Ø + 11• change in distribution of rain(wet winters)

• average yearly temperature + 1,5°C• N summer days Ø + 20• N heat days + 50 %• N frost-/ice-days – X

• sum of yearly precipitations + 250 mm• N days with heavy rain Ø + 11• change in distribution of rain(wet winters)

• average yearly temperature + 1,5°C• N summer days Ø + 20• N heat days + 50 %• N frost-/ice-days – X

storm

flooding

heat

drought

insects

?Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

What comes next?

Salvage cuttings SW-Germany public forest(1953-1970 / 1979-2005)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

1953 1958 1963 1968 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1000

m3

"Wiebke" 1990 "Lothar" 1999

Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

What comes next?

Salvage cuttings SW-Germany public forest(1953-1970 / 1979-2005)

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

1953 1958 1963 1968 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1000

m3

"Wiebke" 1990 "Lothar" 1999

Weigerstorfer (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

What comes next?

Storm damage probabilities• Storm damage

probability increases– at higher elevations,– with higher timber

volume,– …,– across the century.

Hanewinkel et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

What comes next?

Periodicity of storm-damage

• Power spectrum estimation

• Harmonic analysis • Maxima for

harmonics at frequency 11 yrs for storm

Hanewinkel et al. (2006)

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Forest management implications

• Scientific analysis instead of fatalism

• Realistic scenarios instead of „worst-case scenarios“

• Probabilities, amount of damage and periodicity of disturbances are needed (long term time series !!)

• Use information to build insurance models for storm damage

• Use new technologies to conserve timber after large disturbances

Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute

Thank you for your attention !!