texas weather outlook (spring 2014)

Jeffrey LindnerMeteorologist

Harris County Flood Control DistrictMarch 7, 2014

Texas Weather Outlook (Spring 2014)

Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2012

Texas Annual Rainfall

A Decade of Drought

2013 Texas Rainfall

2013 Texas Rainfall Departure from Normal

6 Year Rainfall Departures

2008 - 53.00 : + 3.23 *2009 – 47.01: - 2.762010 – 42.72: - 7.052011 – 24.57: - 25.202012 – 42.32: - 7.452013 – 38.84: - 10.93Total Departure: - 50.16

2008 – 21.71: - 19.512009 – 30.81: - 10.412010 – 46.62: + 5.402011 – 13.08: - 28.142012 – 28.13: - 13.092013 – 25.56: - 15.66Total Departure: - 81.41

2008 – 27.99: - 3.772009 – 20.61: - 11.152010 – 43.92: + 12.162011 – 12.06: - 19.072012 – 18.82: - 12.942013 – 23.45: - 8.31Total Departure: - 43.71

Houston BUSH IAH Victoria

Corpus Christi

2008 – 15.98: - 16.172009 – 34.11: + 1.962010 – 28.42: - 3.732011 – 16.90: - 15.252012 – 35.13: + 2.982013 – 37.04: + 4.48 Total Departure: - 25.73

Austin

* Hurricane Ike landfall on upper TX coast.

2014 Drought Conditions

2014 Lake Levels Lake Levels and Capacity February 20, 2014

Lake Conroe: -1.18 (94%)Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%)Canyon Lake: -7.68 (84%)Lake Somerville: -2.71 (81%)Lake Texana: -3.41 (81%)Lake Buchanan: -30.62 (38%) Lake Travis: -52.25 (36%)Choke Canyon: -23.10 (34%)Toledo Bend: -3.37 (87%)Sam Rayburn: -3.23 (88%)

Lake Houston

Lake Travis

Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels)

Lake Conroe: -8.41 (66%) *Lake Houston: -7.70 (65%)Lake Livingston: -4.10 (80%)Lake Somerville: -10.36 (37%)Lake Texana: -12.43 (41%)Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (31%)Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%)Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%) *Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%) *

* New Record low

Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB

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Current State Storage: 64.0%6 months ago: 64.0%1 year ago: 67.0%

Drought Conditions: Highland Lakes

Total Storage of Travis and Buchanan

Lowest combined storage ever: 621,221 acre-feet on 9-9-1951Lowest combined storage in current drought 638,282 acre-feet on 9-18-2013Current total combined storage of Lakes Travis and Buchanan: 38%

Controlling Global Weather Patterns in Fall, Winter, and Spring

• ENSO (El Nino/La Nina)• AMO• PDO

Nino Regions

Current Nino Region SST’s

El Niño – ENSO Warm Phase

El Niño Winter Impacts

La Niña – ENSO Cold Phase

La Niña Impacts

ENSO Forecast

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Current Pacific Sea Surface Anomalies

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Cold phase PDO favors southern plains drought

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)

Warm phase AMO favors southern plains drought

2014 Drought Forecast

Long Term Outlook• Drought has always been a part of Texas climate.• With a cold PDO and a warm AMO, Texas is more susceptible to

prolonged drought this decade.• The end of the 20th century was likely the most drought-free period in

the last millennium. Our wet trend is expected to reverse this century, increasing the importance of drought preparedness and mitigation.

Questions ???